Some U.S. investors who once relied on bonds to cushion equity selloffs are making more room for commodities, infrastructure, private credit and other inflation-sensitive assets to protect themselves against inflation. Inflation, heavy government borrowing, policy uncertainty and bouts of stocks and bonds falling in tandem have weakened bonds' role as a ballast, prompting some investors to look for more diversification. At 3.5%, U.S. consumer inflation has eased, but escalating U.S.-Iran tensions threaten another oil-driven rebound in price pressures. "Bonds only work as insurance in your portfolio when inflation is low," said Phil Blancato, chief market strategist at Osaic, a wealth management firm. Osaic cut fixed income in its 60/40 portfolio in recent weeks, to 31% from 40%, and added a 6% commodities allocation -- the first in 15 years -- noting that bonds have failed to provide sufficient downside protection during equity selloffs. The stock-bond correlation tends to turn positive when inflation runs high, usually around 2.7%, investors said, except in recessions where Treasuries still provide a hedge. A positive correlation means stocks and bonds move in the same direction, which impacts portfolio diversification as investors get less protection against stock market losses.
Blancato said the firm is also shifting from passive fixed income to more active positions in collateralized loan obligations, mortgage-backed securities and high-yield debt, seeking better opportunities beyond Treasuries. The Virginia Retirement System is keeping its 16% allocation to fixed income but boosting credit, private real estate and infrastructure, while exploring a higher policy leverage range to build resilience across different inflation scenarios, said deputy chief investment officer Chung Ma. "We're just not necessarily relying on the negative correlations that we have historically seen," he added. While assets in fixed-income funds climbed to $7.9 trillion as of May 31, their share of portfolios fell to 20.3% from 25.7% in 2016, and down 4.8% from 2025 as investors shifted toward equities and other asset classes, marking the lowest month-end concentration since May 2008, Morningstar data showed.
