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Alan Shipman, Senior Lecturer in Economics, The Open University

US defies forecasts of economic slowdown, but its growth isn’t making ordinary people better off

US economic growth is picking up again after a slowdown towards the end of 2025. According to price data released on May 28, US GDP grew by 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. This is despite energy prices rising and consumer confidence falling since the US president, Donald Trump, went to war with Iran in February.

Confronted by higher prices for gasoline and a range of other everyday products, US households are spending more in total, rather than cutting back on their purchases. This defies the many economic forecasters who expected that paying more for the basics would discourage consumers from spending money on less essential items, holding back expenditure and GDP growth overall.

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