Well, that was fun.
We had our first full slate of college football games and that meant Ohio State was in action. And it wasn’t just any game, it was a titanic clash between two top-five teams. The Buckeyes came out on top with a hard-fought win over Notre Dame that had the team display toughness and grit.
But, the national perception is that OSU didn’t look like a team destined for greatness this year, largely because of the struggles on offense, a side of the ball that was supposed to be its strength.
With some data now to go on, ESPN has updated its FPI predictions on the percentage chance of Ohio State’s remaining games, and we like to follow where the trends are going. We’ll continue to check in on it throughout the year.
Here’s how the win over Notre Dame affected OSU’s chances of winning each of its remaining games according to the ESPN FPI.
Saturday, Sept. 10, vs. Arkansas State
Ohio Stadium (Columbus)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 98.4% (down from 99.3%)
All-Time Series: First matchup
Projected running record: 2-0
Saturday, Sept. 17, vs. Toledo
Ohio Stadium (Columbus)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 98.4% (up from 98.0%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 3-0
Projected running record: 3-0
Saturday, Sept. 24, vs. Wisconsin
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 90.5% (down from 92.0%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 61-18-5
Projected running record: 4-0
Saturday, Oct. 1, vs. Rutgers
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 98.0% (down from 98.5%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 8-0
Projected running record: 5-0
Saturday, Oct. 8, at Michigan State
Spartan Stadium (East Lansing, Michigan)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 82.3% (down from 83.1%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 35-15
Projected running record: 6-0
Saturday, Oct. 22, vs. Iowa
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 96.9% (up from 95.0%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 46-15-3
Projected running record: 7-0
Saturday, Oct. 29, at Penn State
Beaver Stadium (State College, Pennsylvania)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 82.5% (down from 82.9%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 22-14
Projected running record: 8-0
Saturday, Nov. 5, at Northwestern
Ryan Field (Evanston, Illinois)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 95.8% (down from 96.8%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 64-14-1
Projected running record: 9-0
Saturday, Nov. 12, vs. Indiana
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 97.7% (down from 98.0%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 77-12-5
Projected running record: 10-0
Saturday, Nov. 19, at Maryland
Maryland Stadium (College Park, Maryland)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 89.7% (down from 90.6%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 7-0
Projected running record: 11-0
Saturday, Nov. 26, vs. Michigan
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 80.3% (down from 84.8%)
All-Time Series: OSU trails 51-59-6
Projected Final Regular Season record: 12-0
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