Updated College Football Playoff Predictions from FiveThirtyEight heading into Rivalry Week

In case you haven’t figured it out, this weekend is an extremely pivotal week that will go a long way to determining what four teams make the 2022 College Football Playoff.

That’s because there’s a massive showdown between No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan, as well as rivalry games across this great country of ours like Notre Dame vs. No. 6 USC. The No. 4 TCU Horned Frogs also have a tricky game against Iowa State, so one way or another, we’re going to have a better idea of what things look like.

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But before that, the popular analytics website FiveThirtyEight has updated their College Football Playoff Predictions heading into this week after the latest round of College Football Playoff rankings were unveiled. It’s a pretty close call, but there is some clear separation, and really only about seven teams that have a legitimate shot at playing for confetti to rain down.

Here are the latest College Football Playoff Predictions from FiveThirtyEight, with teams that have at least a 5% chance or greater of making the CFP heading into Week 13 — Rivalry Week.

10

Alabama Crimson Tide (9-2)

Oct 8, 2022; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban reacts during the second half against the Texas A&M Aggies at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

5% (⇑)

Chances if win out

7%

 

 

9

Kansas State Wildcats (8-3)

Nov 19, 2022; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; Kansas State Wildcats safety Josh Hayes (1) celebrates after a defensive stop during the third quarter against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

10% (⇑)

Chances if win out

26%

8

Oregon Ducks (9-2)

Oregon players celebrate a touchdown by running back Jordan James, center, as the Oregon Ducks take on the Stanford Cardinal Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore. Ncaa Football Oregon Stanford Football Stanford At Oregon. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

11% (⇑)

Chances if win out

36%

 

7

LSU Tigers (9-2)

FAYETTEVILLE, ARKANSAS – NOVEMBER 12: Head Coach Brian Kelly of the LSU Tigers talks to the officials in the first half of a game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium on November 12, 2022, in Fayetteville, Arkansas. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

24% (⇑)

Chances if win out

97%

 

6

USC Trojans (10-1)

Nov 5, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) scrambles against California Golden Bears linebacker Henry Ikahihifo (16) during the second quarter at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

32% (⇑)

Chances if win out

88%

 

5

Michigan Wolverines (11-0)

Michigan Wolverines kicker Jake Moody (13) celebrates with tight end Joel Honigford and other teammates after Moody kicked the winning field goal against Illinois to seal a 19-17 win at Michigan Stadium, Saturday, Nov. 19, 2022. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

46% (⇑)

Chances if win out

>99%

4

Clemson Tigers (10-1)

Oct 22, 2022; Clemson, South Carolina, USA; Clemson Tigers quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei (5) and head coach Dabo Swinney talk with 11 minutes left during the fourth quarter against the Syracuse Orange at Memorial Stadium. Credit: Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

48% (⇑)

Chances if win out

75%

 

3

TCU Horner Frogs (11-0)

Nov 19, 2022; Waco, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs place kicker Griffin Kell (39) and his teammates celebrate the victory over the Baylor Bears after Kell kicks the game-winning field goal against the Bears as time expires at McLane Stadium. Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

57% (⇑)

Chances if win out

>99%

2

Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0)

Nov 19, 2022; College Park, MD, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes running back Dallan Hayden (5) scores a rushing touchdown against Maryland Terrapins in the third quarter in their Big Ten game at SECU Stadium. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

73% (⇑)

Chances if win out

>99%

 

1

Georgia Bulldogs (11-0)

Nov 12, 2022; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Georgia Bulldogs tight end Brock Bowers (19) celebrates with running back Kendall Milton (2) after a touchdown against the Mississippi State Bulldogs during the first quarter at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

85% (⇓)

Chances if win out

>99%

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