Eddie Nketiah has come in for a lot of criticism after Arsenal's 3-1 defeat to Manchester City. The 23-year-old missed three presentable chances in the loss and although he would not mention him by name, it was clear that Mikel Arteta was frustrated by the wastefulness of his centre forward.
"It’s exceptionally difficult to play at the level they require you to play to have a chance to win," the Spaniard said in his post-match press conference. "I thought in many moments we did and we had them, but if you give three goals the way we did and don’t put away the big chances that we had the margin for error is almost zero. It’s a shame because we really had them."
Despite a good start to his run in the side Nketiah has underscored his xG per 90 by 0.21 so far this season (as per fbRef). It's certainly a concern for Arsenal, but they are suffering from a problem far greater than the profligacy of their penalty box poacher.
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With Nketiah's goalless displays, the narrative has quickly emerged that Arsenal are missing Gabriel Jesus, but it's not exactly as if the Brazilian was in red hot form. Prior to his injury Jesus had failed to score in 10 consecutive matches and across this season he has underscored his expected goals tally by 2.7 (per fbRef).
Throughout his barren run though, Arsenal still managed to score 15 times across 10 matches from open play. During Nketiah's cold streak it's just one in four. So why the difference?
Put simply Jesus' superpower is the chaos that he brings to the attack. If Nketiah is your classical centre forward, then Jesus is jazz. The Brazilian may wear number nine on his back, but his movement means that he is so much more. Just look at his heatmap from November's 1-0 win over Chelsea and imagine being the poor Blues' defender tasked with trying to stop him.
Although Nketiah has certainly got better at moving around the frontline it's impossible to replicate what Jesus does. While Jesus could pop up on the left wing, right wing or even the central midfield position to try and disrupt opposition defences, Nketiah will generally spend most of his game within roughly the width of the six-yard box. Just look at his heatmap from the 1-0 defeat to Everton as proof.
This has made the Arsenal attack too predictable in recent matches and for the most part sides like Newcastle, Everton and Brentford have been able to keep the Gunners at arm's length. That is in stark contrast to earlier in the season where their free form attacking movement made them one of the most exciting sides in the Premier League.
Take Jesus' goal earlier this season against Brentford - a deep block side who Arsenal struggled to break down just last week - for example. The move begins with Gabriel Martinelli - a player who has also come in for some scrutiny recently - drifting from his left wing starting position to occupy Pontus Jansson on the right side of the pitch.
Martinelli then drops deeper into the number 10 position leaving Jansson now marking Jesus, and Vitaly Janelt unable to close down Granit Xhaka quickly on the edge of the box for fear of leaving Martinelli free.
Xhaka is now free to float a ball to the back post where Jesus has peeled off the flat footed Jansson and can head home. Martinelli meanwhile ends the move as the deepest of Arsenal's front five despite having started it in the centre forward position.
That kind of unpredictability is exactly what defences hate. With Jesus absent though, it's exactly what they're missing and their attack looks timid as a result. Arsenal have failed to get above 1.3 non penalty expected goals in any of their past three Premier League games. Prior to this run they had only managed less than that number on three occasions all season.
With Jesus not expected to be back until at least next month though, Arsenal do need to find a solution in order to revive their dwindling title hopes. Against City there were some brief hints that they may be able to do just that.
The Gunners were outclassed in the second half, but with the scores still level at 1-1, they very nearly fashioned an opportunity that would have put them in front. Gabriel Martinelli makes a dart infield to the number nine slot as Martin Odegaard finds Granit Xhaka out on the left wing.
Eddie Nketiah decides to drift out to the left for one of the first times in the second half, leaving Kyle Walker caught between wanting to track him and needing to close down Xhaka. Meanwhile Martinelli continues to make a central centre forward run.
Walker does neither and is bypassed by Xhaka. Manuel Akanji then has to go across to cover Nketiah meaning that Martinelli is now goal side of Ruben Dias in the middle.
If Nketiah receives the ball then it should be a simple enough square for Martinelli to tap home. Unfortunately for him though, Xhaka overhits the pass. Two minutes later City go up the other end and Jack Grealish gives them the lead.
Of course if Nketiah had taken one of his two golden opportunities prior to that, then maybe the above passage of play wouldn't have been so catastrophic. But as Arsenal look to avoid throwing away their best chance at a Premier League title in nearly 20 years, it's predictability not profligacy that is set to be their biggest obstacle.
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