From the start of his invasion of Ukraine, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has employed the threat of escalation to the use of nuclear weapons as a means to deter western support. He has aimed to spread fear in Europe as a means to undermining solidarity with Kyiv. And as his military fails to hold the gains it initially made in the south and east of Ukraine these threats have become louder.
But the use of a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine would be potentially catastrophic for Russia – both politically and militarily. And there would be little to gain in terms of the conflict itself.
So Russia is also demonstrating that there are many other rungs to climb on the escalation ladder before it gets to nuclear weapons. Most recently, the Kremlin has focused on destroying as much of Ukraine’s critical civilian infrastructure as possible. In particular, Moscow has used a combination of missile and drone attacks to target major Ukrainian cities, including the capital Kyiv, and the country’s power grid.
