Classified Pentagon documents leaked last week paint a grim picture of the trajectory of the war in Ukraine. While it may well be the most significant national security breach since the Snowden leaks of US National Security Agency material a decade ago, the fact that the leak occurred is almost certainly more significant than what was revealed about Ukraine.
The leak reveals how apparently easy it was for a low-level employee on a US military base to obtain and then share highly sensitive US government information. By comparison, the contents of the documents on Ukraine leaked are far less explosive in nature – they mostly confirm existing battlefield assessments that cast doubt, in the eyes of US intelligence officials, on any major breakthroughs in a widely expected Ukrainian spring offensive.
The key shortfalls on the Ukrainian side – artillery pieces and munitions, as well as air defences – have been well known for some time. What has also been obvious for some time, and was reconfirmed in some of the leaked documents, is that Ukraine has been mostly relying on Soviet-era artillery equipment and stocks of ammunition have begun to run dry.
