One of the consequences of Russia’s war in Ukraine is the fact that the Kremlin has lost a lot of its influence in former Soviet countries. This creates opportunities to limit Moscow’s ability to leverage its once dominant role to further its war aims. However, it also means that Russia is likely to raise the stakes and try to escalate tensions and confrontation across the region.
For the past several weeks, Moldova has been at the centre of such efforts by the Kremlin. And this just be an indication of how Russia envisages the next stage of its confrontation with the west.
Even before the start of the war in Ukraine, there were signs of the countries of Central Asia beginning to assert their individual and collective interests more strongly, a trend that has accelerated since February 2022. Notably, as China’s role in the region has grown, partly as a result of the void created by Russia, the US has rekindled its relationships with key partners in central Asia, especially Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, in yet another sign of Russia’s diminishing stature.
