The Ukrainian advance into Russia’s Kursk oblast took almost everyone by surprise. Perhaps not the Russians stationed on the border, who reportedly tried to warn of a Ukrainian troop buildup, but the rest of us who watch the conflict closely did not think the Ukrainian army – under increasingly severe pressure in Donetsk oblast further south – had the spare manpower and kit to launch this operation.
So far it has been successful, advancing up to 30km in some directions and creating a salient inside Russia some 40km wide. An area of about 800 square kilometres has been seized so far according to the Institute for the Study of War in the greatest loss of western Russian territory since April 1944. How have the Ukrainians done it, and what might happen next?
