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The Conversation
Politics
Stefan Wolff, Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham

Ukraine: the complex calculations that will decide whether Belarus enters the conflict on Russia's side

For several days, there have been reports about Belarus committing troops to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Fears are growing that a “false-flag” operation inside Belarus could be the pretext for the country attacking Ukraine.

Belarusian president Aleksandr Lukashenko, in an interview with TBS Television Japan, complained about constant Ukrainian provocations to which his country would eventually “need to respond”. The departure of the Belarusian ambassador from Ukraine is yet another ominous sign of potential escalation.

In addition, Russia’s advance in Ukraine continues to stall. There has been no significant progress around Kyiv for several days. And other major population centres, including Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Sumy in the north remain in Ukrainian hands, despite Russia’s efforts to occupy them.

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