SIR Geoffrey Nice KC, who led the prosecution against Slobodan MiloševiÄ of Yugoslavia, has called for the prosecution of Vladimir Putin for war crimes against the population of Ukraine. Not that the move has much prospect of immediate success.
The prosecutor at the International War Crimes Tribunal at The Hague has demurred from even registering Sir Geoffrey’s motion. The move has real significance, in practice and principle. Though Putin himself is never likely to appear in court, the indictment enters the judicial record, the collective memory and on what should be the conscience of the world.
In practical terms it should galvanise the alliance of Western and liberal powers to ensure the survival of Ukraine, which is by no means certain with the prospects of further fighting, bombing and violence in 2023.
For Britain this has particular importance. It should encourage the UK with its immediate allies to redouble their efforts to back the defence of Ukraine — especially as another major offensive by a new Russian ground force is expected on the anniversary of the initial invasion next month.
The Government also needs to give a coherent, succinct public statement of its policies and aims on Ukraine — and should not rely on the usual channels of back briefings to the media. This should be the catalyst to the recalibration of UK strategic, defence and resilience posture with the publication of an update of the Integrated Review on strategy of 2021, due in the next few weeks.
Ukrainians are fighting daily for survival: on the front lines in ground battles, in the air, cyberspace, in the waters of the Black Sea and in towns and cities being hit daily by drone and ground attack missiles. The destruction is unlikely to stop any time soon given Putin’s strange danse macabre for what he sees as the fight for the survival of his autocracy and the Russian nation.
This results in the West upping offers of equipment and assistance. The former foreign secretary, William Hague, has argued forcibly for providing longer range artillery rockets. Air defences have to be constantly upgraded as Russia procures more drones and ground attack missiles from Iran. The notoriously risk-averse Biden administration must now take a chance in refurbishing Ukraine’s air force.
Until now the US has baulked at providing potent ordnance like the ATACMS missile and refurbished aircraft as this could give Ukraine increased ability to attack targets inside Russia. But such weapons are needed to get the drones at point of launch and catch the intermediate range missiles as early in flight as possible. Some are being launched from the Caspian and the Black Seas.
The issue becomes pressing if Russia fulfils its threat to use new hypersonic missiles. Nato, the EU and Commonwealth partners need to work to a comprehensive plan for sustaining and supporting Ukraine, as Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg has suggested.
Putin is playing a long game — hoping that the Western alliance will lose interest and fall apart, and by grinding down the civilians of Ukraine by relentless drone and missile attacks on their cities, homes and basic utilities. The support for the war and military operations should be accompanied by a plan for the reconstruction of Ukraine.
Not only should this be a giant building project, but a blueprint for transformation of Ukraine to the standards of transparency, governance and justice expected of a candidate nation for Nato and the EU. If necessary, this should include sanctions against the rogue oligarch and mafia elements, for which Ukraine has been notorious.
Britain should use the revision of the Integrated Review as a rain check on security and defence. This means a list of what has changed since March 21, what needs urgent address and what we can afford. Main bullet points are Covid, conflict in the European neighbourhood and the impact of climate change. From dustbowls in Asia, Africa and Latin America, rising sea levels and temperatures, melting icecaps on the high glaciers, and the melting of polar icecaps and oceanic ice, these are coming home in a domestic and global dimension.
With this comes discussion of community and community resilience, communication in ground facts reporting, cyberspace, AI and quantum. There needs to be more realism and less boosterism than in Boris Johnson’s IR. And — memo to Downing Street — the — the answers for security, resilience and strategy requirements aren’t to be found exclusively in an Excel spreadsheet.
