The story of the Ukrainians’ long-heralded counter-offensive on the city of Kherson is one of symbol as much as substance. Their forces have attacked across a 50-mile front, targeting five or six key strongpoints, to cut off and destroy Russian forces in Kherson, the first major strategic city seized by Russian forces in the south of Ukraine after the invasion on February 24.
Against strong military advice, President Zelensky ordered the attack on Kherson to be before September 1 — the city held by the Russians is on the west bank at the mouth of the Dnipro river. Secure Kherson and the ports to the west from Mykolaiv to Odesa and its satellites will be secure for Ukrainian forces and shipping through to next spring.
Military advisers said Ukraine needed to gather more fully-trained forces, complete with tactical and strategic reserves to ensure success.
Zelensky wanted urgent action because he fears the sense of stalemate on the battlefront is eroding support among allies, particularly the EU. The Italian general election campaign has produced a vociferous peace camp. Supporters of the Rightwing coalition, likely to take power on September 25, believe Italy is ideally placed to broker a deal with Moscow, ensuring the restoration of supplies of cheap gas from Russia.
In the UK the former Army chief Lord Dannatt has said peace talks are needed now. Interestingly, Sir Alex Younger, the former MI6 head and far more versed in the affairs of Ukraine and Eastern Europe, has called for redoubled support for Kyiv.
Younger senses that this may be a make-or-break moment for Ukraine and Russia. A military defeat at the mouth of the Dnipro would be a setback from which the current Kyiv government would find it hard to recover. Continuing stalemate spells trouble for Putin, though he and his circle will find it hard to admit.
Putin’s position now is in sharp contrast to the achievements of Mikhail Gorbachev, the late great leader. Gorbachev got the Red Army out of Eastern Europe peacefully. Putin wants to assert a resurgent Russia into Eastern Europe with military violence, beginning with Ukraine. He shows no signs of giving up on making Russia a European military force again, eradicating independent Ukraine on the way.
So far reports from the front are sketchy. For once both sides seem to be observing operational security regulations, witholding the release of militarily sensitive information, which could be of value to the foe. Russia is reported to be shifting 25 BTGs, or Battalion Tactical Groups, to concentrate in defensive arcs in and round Kherson.
Some of these are at just over half strength , 600 personnel or so. Some will have been amalgamated between two or three BTGs battered and depleted in fighting across the Donbas. Amalgamation has been difficult owing to a lack of experienced NCOs and trainers.
Earlier this month Putin announced 137,000 more troops would boost the Russian army’s overall strength to around 1,100,000. There is both more and less to this than meets the eye; 137,000 is the six monthly quota for the draft for Russian security forces, which includes security police and interior ministry forces. Now Putin is putting the conscripts into the army — cannon fodder for Ukraine. However, Russia’s law states that conscripts are not serve in combat in foreign parts.
Russia still has overwhelming superiority in numbers of military personnel and materiel. Ukraine still has a scratch army with a few highly skilled and very experienced professional units but a desperate need to turn volunteers and territorial forces into all — arms manoeuvre groups capable of attacking Russian formations and positions in mass. Some UK trainers think it will be several months before Ukraine field a mobile strike corps of around 60,000.
The Russians may have mass but they seem to have what may become equally massive difficulties of defective and inferior equipment. One analysis for the UK MoD assesses that Russia has used more than 35 per cent of its total artillery ammunition reserve, and is using older, less reliable stock from the Soviet era. Just under 2,000 howitzer barrels are now in need of restoration, reboring, or replacement.
There is a big challenge for the trainers on all sides in this strange mixture of ultra-modern and old fashioned warfare, involving cyber, electronic warfare jamming and targeting, virtual reality, slogging through wheat fields and farmyards; and fighting in streets and basements where the Iphone is potent as a Kalashnikov, RPG, or sniper rifle.
“We are having to rethink fighting in urban landscapes in a new way,” a British officer observed to me. “This is different from Iraq, Afghanistan, or the Falklands or even Northern Ireland. Since most humans now live in cities, and conurbations, this should now be a training priority.”
Memo to Defence Secretary Ben Wallace and Chief of the Defence Staff Sir Tony Radakin — you can’t start the new training too soon.
