Thirteen years ago, NATO leaders decided at their summit in Bucharest that Ukraine and Georgia should at some point in the future become members of the alliance. It was the first time the alliance had formally recognized the membership prospects of the two post-Soviet countries, which had shown their willingness to assume the responsibilities of NATO allies. The Bucharest summit was undoubtedly a historic event, but the allies stopped short of granting Ukraine and Georgia membership action plans, used previously in NATO’s enlargement in Central and Eastern Europe.
NATO membership action plans represent a commitment from the countries aspiring to join to make comprehensive reforms. They also reflect the alliance’s promise that these reforms will actually open the door to membership. Fears of antagonizing Moscow and destabilizing the region stopped the allies from creating a formal path for Ukraine and Georgia’s membership in Bucharest. During these heated discussions, Russian President Vladimir Putin openly questioned Ukrainian statehood for the first time—a warning sign underestimated by the allies. A few months later, Moscow started a war in Georgia, a scenario repeated in 2014 in Ukraine.
