With the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has overstepped an important line. The west sat by and did little when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and annexed Crimea in 2014. But the full-scale invasion of Ukraine that is currently underway is impossible to ignore. Putin’s actions and his justifications cast serious doubt over the possibility of any kind of credible diplomacy with Russia at this stage of the conflict.
The Russian president’s intentions have been crystal clear since his rambling speech on February 21 in which he talked of Russia’s “empire”, after which he recognised the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states. Now he is directing a “special military operation” in Ukraine, supposedly justified by threats to Russia from Ukraine. Diplomacy has failed to deter Putin and to pull Russia back from the brink. It is unlikely to be useful, or welcome, in the current situation.
What is needed now is a policy of containment and the reassurance of Nato and EU members. Russia needs to feel real deterrence against any further military escalation which brings home to Putin the cost of sustaining this adventurism. The latter would involve further increasing sanctions on Russia – including on Putin and his inner circle and their wider families – and everything that will support Ukraine militarily, but, for now at least, short of actual troop deployments by western countries.
