UK growth forecast to slow sharply as Trump tariffs push confidence to record low

EY Item Club said the bigger hit to UK plc is likely to come from the indirect impact of tariffs on British consumers already cautious about spending on bigger ticket items. Photograph: Murdo MacLeod/The Guardian

The UK economy is set to slow sharply for the next two years as Donald Trump’s global tariff war weighs on consumer spending and business investment, a study by a leading forecaster has predicted.

The findings by EY Item Club, which is sponsored by the big four accountancy firm EY, come as a separate survey reported that confidence in Britain’s economy has fallen to the lowest level on record.