Friday’s politics liveblog is live at the link below – with the transcript of Starmer on Corbyn, the latest on the betting scandal and a roundup of the papers:
Early evening summary
Rishi Sunak has become mired in a row over alleged betting on the general election date after it emerged that a second Conservative candidate and the party’s campaigns director were being looked into by the Gambling Commission. The watchdog is examining bets allegedly placed by Laura Saunders, the Tory candidate in Bristol North West, and her husband, Tony Lee, who is now on leave of absence from his job at party headquarters. In a statement issued through lawyers, Saunders said that she was cooperating with the commission’s investigation, that she had nothing further to say publicly, and that she was considering suing the BBC, which first reported the story, and other news organisations over infringement of privacy rights. (See 6.05pm.) Labour has challenged Sunak to explain why the Conservatives have not withdrawn support from Saunders and another candidate, Craig Williams, also being investigated in relation to a bet on the date of the general election. (See 5.37pm.)
That is all from me on this blog.
But we have just launched another election live blog, where I will be covering the BBC Question Time leaders’ special. It’s here.
Updated
Tory candidate facing probe over election date betting allegations threatens to sue BBC 'over privacy rights'
Laura Saunders, the Conservative candidate being investigated by the Gambling Commission over election date betting allegations, has issued a statement saying she is cooperating with the inquiry. She also says she might sue the BBC over infringement of her privacy rights.
In a statement released on Saunders’ behalf, Nama Zarroug, a solicitor at Astraea Linskills, said:
As the Conservative party has already stated, investigations are ongoing.
Ms Saunders will be cooperating with the Gambling Commission and has nothing further to add.
It is inappropriate to conduct any investigation of this kind via the media, and doing so risks jeopardising the work of the Gambling Commission and the integrity of its investigation.
The publication of the BBC’s story is premature and is a clear infringement of Ms Saunders’ privacy rights. She is considering legal action against the BBC and any other publishers who infringe her privacy rights.
Updated
Labour challenges Sunak to say why Tories have not already withdrawn backing from candidates facing betting allegations
At 8pm tonight the BBC will start showing its live two-hour Question Time leaders’ special. Fiona Bruce is presenting, and the four main party leaders will get half an hour each taking questions from the audience in York, in this order: Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader; John Swinney, the SNP leader; Keir Starmer, the Labour leader; and Rishi Sunak, the Conservative leader and PM.
Sunak has not been giving interviews today and he is bound to be asked about the Tory election date betting allegations. Starmer is bound to raise it too.
For a taste of what Starmer is likely to say, here is the open letter about the scandal sent to Sunak by Pat McFadden, Labour’s national campaign coordinator. It was released earlier today.
My letter to Rishi Sunak on the gambling scandal engulfing the Tory Party.
— Pat McFadden (@patmcfaddenmp) June 20, 2024
How far does it go? What will he do to those involved? And what does it say about today’s Tory party that once again their first instinct was to fill their boots? pic.twitter.com/WgJcPSg9Ro
In the letter McFadden challenges Sunak to explain why the Conservative party has not withdrawn its support from the two candidates who are suspected of using insider information to bet on the date of the election.
It was reported last night that a member of your close protection team has been suspended from his job, and subsequently arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office, after a communication from the Gambling Commission to the Metropolitan police.
Can I ask you very simply why you think that a serving police officer should be suspended from his role, because of allegations that he made a bet based on inside information, while the two colleagues of yours who so far stand accused of the same offence – Craig Williams, your PPS (parliamentary private secretary), and Laura Saunders, a member of your CCHQ (Conservative Campaign Headquarters) staff and partner of your campaigns director – are still being allowed to stand as Tory candidates in the election on July 4?
Surely you can understand that – yet again – this looks as though there is one rule for members of the Tory party, and another rule for everyone else, specifically on this occasion a serving police officer.
If you can see how wrong that is, will you now at the very least remove your support for Mr Williams and Ms Saunders as Conservative election candidates?
At this point in the campaign the Conservative party cannot stop people being identified as Tory candidates because some ballot papers have been printed and postal votes are being sent out. But a party can disown a candidate, as Labour did with its candidate in Rochdale in the byelection earlier this year.
McFadden also challenges Sunak to confirm that the Conservative party will cooperate with the Gambling Commission, which is conducting an investigation.
No-one is above the law and it is essential that the taint of corruption now surrounding the behaviour of some who may have known about the election date is properly investigated and punished.
And he claims the latest allegations are evidence of the “pattern of behaviour” from Tories. He says:
This is a pattern of behaviour running through the modern incarnation of the Conservative party.
It says that – whatever is happening to the rest of the country, whatever the rules may say, and whatever the basic concepts of right and wrong might dictate – the bottom line is can we make a quick profit out of it?
You promised professionalism, integrity and accountability. You have ended up with your own closest colleagues allegedly using their inside knowledge of an election announcement to try and con money out of the bookmakers, and being allowed to stay on in their roles while a serving police officer accused of the same offence has been suspended and arrested.
I urge you to gain a sense of urgency and decency about this matter, and do what is necessary both to establish how wide this scandal goes, and take immediate action against all those implicated.
It will speak volumes if you choose to stay silent and do nothing instead.
Updated
Today the Conservative party posted this video on its main X account, attacking Labour’s policy on small boats, and its refusal to back deportations to Rwanda.
Don't wake up to this on 5th July. pic.twitter.com/SQ4m71dqyZ
— Conservatives (@Conservatives) June 20, 2024
Caroline Lucas, who is standing down as a Green party MP, has described this advert as “disgusting”.
This is so disgusting. Imagine the mindset that made this. People are dying. Afraid. Exploited and desperate. The Tories now chasing Reform to the very hard right and it’s sickening. Just when you think they couldn’t sink any lower … https://t.co/2iuTq8JDg5
— Caroline Lucas (@CarolineLucas) June 20, 2024
This is so disgusting. Imagine the mindset that made this. People are dying. Afraid. Exploited and desperate. The Tories now chasing Reform to the very hard right and it’s sickening. Just when you think they couldn’t sink any lower …
UK parties ignoring food shortage risks, say farming and retail bodies
Farmers and supermarkets have accused the main political parties of ignoring the risk of severe food shortages in Britain, calling the issue a “worrying blind spot” in their general election campaigns, Jack Simpson reports.
Scottish Greens propose £1,000 per head levy on people using private jets
The Scottish Greens’ manifesto is proposing a “transformative vision” to deliver a green economy, co-leader Lorna Slater has said.
The party launched its manifesto at an event in Edinburgh this morning and Slater said it was “by far the most hopeful, urgent and ambitious of this election, with bold and credible plans to deliver the change we need and live up to the scale of the crisis we face”.
She went on:
There is nothing inevitable about climate breakdown. We know that we have to radically reduce our emissions and build a fairer, greener economy. But our governments need to show the political will to do it.
That is why we’re offering a plan to transition away from fossil fuels and build the green, clean and renewable industries of the future.
By securing a record vote for the Scottish Greens, we can send shock-waves through our politics and deliver the strongest possible message for people and planet.
As PA Media reports, in the 56-page manifesto, the Greens outline plans for a wealth tax on the richest people in the UK, an end to oil and gas companies being able to advertise, and a stop on all subsidies for fossil fuels. All public sector pension funds, the party said, should also fully divest from fossil fuels.
The party would also levy a private jet tax of £1,000 a head on those using their own planes to travel to or within the UK.
The Scottish Greens do not have any MPs, but they are small but significant force in the Scottish parliament. The collapse of their power-sharing agreement with the SNP lead to Humza Yousaf resigning as first minister.
Bank of England would have been more likely to cut interest rates if Sunak had not called election, George Osborne claims
The Bank of England would have been more likely to cut interest rates today if there was no election campaign taking place, George Osborne, the former Tory chancellor, has claimed.
Speaking on his Political Currency podcast, which he co-hosts with Ed Balls, Osborne said:
The irony here is that if Rishi Sunak had not called an early election, today would be the day when the Bank of England almost certainly would be cutting interest rates for the first time in a couple of years.
If he had waited to the autumn, as all of his senior cabinet were urging him to do and everyone was expecting him to do, he would today not be in the middle of an election campaign. He’d be able to say ‘Look, the interest rates are coming down.’
And over the next few months, he would have had an answer to Rachel Reeves’ charge. She says, ‘Oh, well, people are still feeling [the cost of living crisis]’. But in a few months time, maybe people would start to say, ‘Well, you know, actually, I’m feeling a little bit better off than I was.’
Some commentators have claimed that the Bank of England was reluctant to cut rates today because that would have been seen as a partisan intervention in the election campaign, helpful to the Tories. But the Bank claims the timing of the election did not affect its decision making.
Students in England will graduate this summer owing £48,000 on average in maintenance and tuition fee loans, figures show
Students in England will graduate this summer each owing £48,000 in maintenance and tuition fee loans, according to figures from the Student Loans Company showing a 9% increase compared to last year. Higher interest rates and increased take up of maintenance loans were behind the rise. A decade ago, in 2013-14, the average loan balance was just £20,000.
The total amount of higher education lending has now reached more than £230bn, up from £205bn in 2022-23. £15bn was the result of accrued interest, while graduates repaid £4.6bn during the year.
Newly published figures also show that previous graduates in England faced a difficult job market, with pay hit by higher inflation.
The Department for Education’s longitudinal education outcomes for 2021-22 show that graduates in employment were paid an average of £29,900 five years after leaving university. Adjusted for inflation, first degree graduates were paid £25,800 (in 2015-16 prices), 2.3% lower than a year earlier.
Updated
Alliance party calls for change in Treasury fiscal rules to allow more green investment
Government spending rules must be changed to free up funding to tackle climate change, the Alliance party has said. Alliance is the main cross-community party in Northern Ireland and, as PA reports, in its manifesto it called for reform of Treasury fiscal rules to allow for investment in a green new deal.
At the manifesto launch, Naomi Long, the party leader, said the current fiscal rules “reinforce climate inaction” in the UK. She said:
The Leading Change manifesto is not standalone but dovetails with previous Alliance publications, setting out our policy priorities for the next five years over issues which Westminster has direct control or influence.
Alliance is already leading change in a number of areas, including better health outcomes, making communities safer, expanding integrated education and delivering affordable childcare.
We are also working to combat climate change, promote a greener and cleaner environment, and create a dynamic and vibrant economy.
That includes our proposals to change the UK government’s fiscal rules, to better reflect the huge cost associated with climate inaction.
One Alliance MP was elected in 2019, Stephen Farry, in North Down. At this election the party is particularly hoping that Farry will hold his seat and that Long will be able to beat Gavin Robinson, the DUP leader, in East Belfast, which they are both contesting.
Updated
Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, has joined those attacking the Conservative party over the election date betting allegations. He told broadcasters:
From all the news that’s breaking the day, it looks like the Conservative party is more corrupt than even its worst critics could have imagined. They are literally stealing the lightbulbs on the way out the door. This is another shocking scandal.
In fact, for all the multiple allegations against Tory MPs, candidates and supporters over the years, stealing lightbulbs is one thing they haven’t been accused of – so “literally” isn’t the right word. But you know what he means.
Keir Starmer has been campaigning near York today, ahead of tonight’s BBC Question Time leaders’ special, which is being recorded in the city.
Here he is canvassing with Luke Charters, Labour’s candidate in York Outer.
And here is Starmer addressing reporters.
Updated
Douglas Ross, the Scottish Conservative leader, has said the inquiry into the two Tory candidates suspected of using inside information to bet on the date of the general election should be allowed to run its course. But if the candidates are found to be guilty, they should be disowned by the party, he said. He told reporters.
The investigation has been set up to look at these allegations, and if anyone is guilty of using [information] that they were privy to, to place bets, to financially benefit from that, it is completely unacceptable, it is completely wrong and they should no longer have the support.
But there is an independent process and I think it’s right that due process is allowed to continue.
Boris Johnson to publish 'honest, unrestrained and deeply revealing' memoirs in October
Good afternoon. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Amy Sedghi.
And I bring you the news that Boris Johnson is going to publish his memoirs in October. According to HarperCollins, the publisher, it will be called “Unleashed” and it will be “honest, unrestrained and deeply revealing”, covering Johnson’s time as mayor of London and as prime minister. It will be out on 10 October.
“Honest” is not a word normally associated with Johnson, but we live in hope.
In a statement, Johnson himself said:
I am honoured that HarperCollins is publishing my personal account of the huge realignment that took place in UK politics in the last 15 years – and what may lie ahead.
So stand by for my thoughts on Britain’s future to explode over the publishing world like a much shaken bottle of champagne.
If you want to contact me, please post a message below the line (BTL) or message me on X (Twitter). I can’t read all the messages BTL, but if you put “Andrew” in a message aimed at me, I am more likely to see it because I search for posts containing that word. If you want to flag something up urgently, it is best to use X; I’ll see something addressed to @AndrewSparrow very quickly. I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos (no error is too small to correct). And I find your questions very interesting too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either BTL or sometimes in the blog.
UPDATE: Johnson posted this about his book on X.
Boris Johnson UNLEASHED.
— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) June 20, 2024
A book that shatters the mould of the modern Prime Ministerial memoir.
Publishing 10th October 2024
Pre-order a copy here - https://t.co/AsjIEPvUQr
Boris Johnson UNLEASHED.
A book that shatters the mould of the modern Prime Ministerial memoir.
Publishing 10th October 2024
Pre-order a copy here - https://t.co/AsjIEPvUQr
Updated
Summary of the day so far
I will shortly be handing over the blog to my colleague, Andrew Sparrow. But first, here is a summary of some of today’s key developments:
The Gambling Commission is looking into a second Conservative candidate over an alleged bet on the timing of the general election. Laura Saunders, the party’s candidate in Bristol North West, is married to Tony Lee, the Conservative party’s director of campaigns.
The Conservatives confirmed that Tony Lee took leave of absence on Wednesday. The BBC reported that Lee was also being looked into by the commission. It is not known how much money was allegedly staked or whether any bet was made personally by Lee or Saunders.
Keir Starmer has called on Rishi Sunak to immediately suspend Laura Saunders as a Conservative candidate after it was reported that the Gambling Commission was looking into her over a bet on the timing of the election, saying that if it was a Labour candidate “their feet would not have touched the floor”.
Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey described what appears to have been happening as “corruption”, when he was asked about the latest Conservative candidate betting allegations as he campaigned in Sheffield. Lib Dem deputy leader Daisy Cooper said “Rishi Sunak must find his backbone and suspend Laura Saunders”.
Reform has been urged to suspend its candidate in one of Scotland’s key battleground seats after reports that she posted “sickening” comments about the monarchy. Joanna Hart, who is standing in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East, apparently posted “fuck the Royals”, “make Lizzy the last”, and compared the royal family to “benefit scroungers” on social media during the Platinum Jubilee celebrations three years ago.
The Conservatives have moved closer to “right-wing extremism” since the Brexit vote, Scottish Green co-leader Patrick Harvie has claimed. At the launch of his party’s manifesto in Edinburgh ahead of the 4 July general election, Harvie claimed a lurch to the “far right” is “inevitable” after polling day.
Also addressing journalists and party activists at the Edinburgh launch, Harvie’s co-leader Lorna Slater said the world is “hurtling towards climate hell”. She added new oil and gas licences are “a fast track to climate breakdown”.
Labour would pass a law to prevent landlords conducting “bidding wars” between potential renters, Starmer has said. Asked how Labour would tackle escalating rents without implementing a rent cap, he told Sky News: “You can stop the bidding wars because what happens there is the landlord effectively goes between two or three different renters driving the rent up and up and up. We won’t allow them to do that.”
Starmer denied a Labour party official said a future government could “flatten the whole green belt” to achieve homebuilding plans. At a visit to a housing development in York, the Labour leader told journalists: “No, that wasn’t Labour party officials. That wasn’t Labour party policy.”
Speaking to Reform supporters in Cheshire on Thursday, Nigel Farage said “something remarkable” was happening with younger voters. The Reform UK leader said he’d seen support for his party from generation Z “rapidly” increasing.
Michael Gove has suggested there is still time for the Conservatives to stage a late comeback and win the election, claiming: “We’re not in ‘Fergie time’ yet.” Gove has also told the BBC that Labour could install “yes men and women” in public bodies if it wins a large majority at the election.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has said it is not “fair” to claim there is “sustained economic scarring” from Liz Truss’s mini-budget. Speaking at the Times CEO summit in London, Hunt added that sthe outcome of his seat is “too close to call” and a Tory win in the election is not “the most likely outcome”.
The NHS will need £38bn more a year than planned by the end of the next parliament in order to cut the care backlog and end long treatment delays, political parties have been warned. Labour and Conservative promises on NHS funding “fall well short” of what the beleaguered health service needs to recover from years of underinvestment, according to the Health Foundation.
Starmer rejects claim Labour would 'flatten' green belt to build more houses
Keir Starmer has denied a Labour party official said a future government could “flatten the whole green belt” to achieve homebuilding plans.
The PA news agency reports that Politico’s London Playbook quoted an unnamed party official on Thursday, who said: “I don’t care if we flatten the whole green belt, we just need more houses in this country.”
Prime minister Rishi Sunak posted the quote to his feed on X with the caption: “Good to finally get Labour’s real views on Britain’s green belt.”
Just been sent this article from Politico this morning.
— Rishi Sunak (@RishiSunak) June 20, 2024
Good to finally get Labour's real views on Britain's green belt. pic.twitter.com/7R0TgzJFMu
At a visit to a housing development in York, Starmer told journalists:
No, that wasn’t Labour party officials. That wasn’t Labour party policy.
What we will do is we will build the one and a half million houses that we need over the next five years on projects like this, with the facilities they need, because what you need here is the schools and the GPs and the facilities that are needed for housing.
We will get on and do the building we need to do, but we’d of course protect the countryside, as you’d expect.”
Labour has pledged to build 1.5m new homes over the next five years, if elected.
To achieve this, the party has vowed to reform planning rules to build homes on the so-called grey belt, which it describes as poor quality land, car parks and wasteland.
The party also plans a ban on no-fault evictions, introducing legal protections for tenants when it comes to mould, and putting an end to rental bidding wars and upfront payments.
Updated
Farage claims he is getting 'remarkable' amount of support from Gen Z voters
Speaking to Reform supporters in Cheshire, Nigel Farage said “something remarkable” was happening with younger voters.
The Reform UK leader said:
We are not doing well with millennials. The 25 to 35s we’re not doing well with, but generation Z, Gen Z, the 15 to 25s, something remarkable, I mean truly remarkable, is happening.
Our support in that age bracket is rapidly, and I mean rapidly, going up.
The following I’ve built up on TikTok, Instagram, those sort of accounts is amazing.”
He also said football supporters at the Euro 2024 tournament in Germany had been “wearing Farage masks”.
He added:
There’s an awakening in a younger generation who’ve had enough of being dictated to, had enough of being lectured to and they’re seeing through the BS they’re getting in schools and universities.
Updated
Lib Dem leader Ed Davey calls for Cabinet Office inquiry into Tory election date betting allegations
Lib Dem leader Ed Davey was asked about the latest Conservative candidate betting allegations as he campaigned in Sheffield, describing what appears to have been happening as “corruption”.
He said:
It think it’s quite awful. The idea that you bet on something when you know the result, that is immoral, it is illegal, and I can’t believe people at the top of the Conservative party are doing this and have allowed this to happen.
This is corruption, frankly, and it needs to have a heavy hand from the top.”
Davey said:
We think there should be a Cabinet Office inquiry. I think the Gambling Commission will rightly look at this.
I hope they come down heavy on those people who look like – I haven’t seen the details but they look like – they’ve acted illegally and immorally.”
Davey was talking to the media during a visit to Whinfell Quarry Gardens in the city, where he built insect boxes with volunteers as well as helping with weeding.
Updated
The issue of transition from fossil fuels is one of the most important in Scotland’s election campaign, and the SNP is still struggling with the specifics of its policy on new oil and gas licences.
At FMQs this lunchtime, Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross attacked the SNP’s latest position – set out in their manifesto yesterday – to subject any new application to a “climate compatibility assessment”.
This middling position – rather than a presumption against new licenses, the policy of his predecessor-before-last Nicola Sturgeon – suits the SNP in an election campaign where they are battling for votes against the Tories in the north-east, where the UK’s oil industry is based.
Ross chided Swinney, the leader of the SNP, describing this as “a temporary position for the SNP because their position is very clear: they don’t and will not stand up for Scotland’s oil and gas industry, they are willing to put tens of thousands of jobs and the north-east economy at risk”.
Swinney denied this, saying that is was the Tories, and Rishi Sunak’s sanctioning of one hundred new licences: “That is irresponsible, that will accelerate the climate emergency.”
But Swinney also faces criticism from climate campaigners, who described his manifesto position as “confused and disappointing”.
Tessa Khan, executive director at Uplift, which campaign for swift and fair transition, said:
Given that the world’s experts have said there can be no new oil and gas fields if we’re to have a hope of staying within safe climate limits, there is no such thing as a ‘climate compatible’ new oilfield.
The SNP should listen to its voter base – less than one-third of whom support new licensing in the North Sea – instead of the oil and gas giants who want to keep making as much as they can for as long as they can.”
Starmer calls on Sunak to immediately suspend Laura Saunders as a Tory candidate
Keir Starmer has called on Rishi Sunak to immediately suspend Laura Saunders as a Conservative candidate after it was reported that the Gambling Commission was looking into her over a bet on the timing of the election, saying that if it was a Labour candidate “their feet would not have touched the floor”.
Speaking to reporters at a housing development on the edge of York, a visit tied into Labour announcements on housing, Starmer was asked what should happen in the case.
Starmer said:
This candidate should be suspended, and it’s very telling that Rishi Sunak has not already done that. If it was one of my candidates, their feet would not have touched the floor. There’s a wider point here, which is we’ve now had 14 years of chaos and division of politics. This is about self entitlement.”
Starmer said Sunak should give a full account of what had happened, condemning what he called “the politics of self entitlement, where politicians are sort of in it for themselves”.
Updated
The Gambling Commission is looking into a second Conservative candidate over an alleged bet on the timing of the general election.
Laura Saunders, the party’s candidate in Bristol North West, is married to Tony Lee, the Conservative party’s director of campaigns.
Lee took leave of absence on Wednesday.
A Conservative spokesperson said: “The director of campaigning took a leave of absence from CCHQ yesterday.”
Minutes later the BBC reported that Lee was also being looked into by the commission.
It is not known how much money was allegedly staked or whether any bet was made personally.
Last week the Guardian revealed that Rishi Sunak’s closest parliamentary aide, Craig Williams, placed a £100 bet with Ladbrokes at 5/1 on a July poll, three days before the prime minister announced the date.
Williams, 39, is the Tory candidate for Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr in mid-Wales. He had a majority of 12,000 before the boundary change.
In the wake of the revelation the Guardian also revealed that the Gambling Commission asked bookmakers to trawl through all substantial bets placed on a July election.
The watchdog wrote to all licensed bookmakers requesting information on anyone who stood to gain more than £199 by betting on a July election in the UK.
A Conservative party spokesperson told the BBC: “We have been contacted by the Gambling Commission about a small number of individuals. As the Gambling Commission is an independent body, it wouldn’t be proper to comment further, until any process is concluded.”
Updated
Reform urged to suspend candidate in Scottish seat after reports of 'sickening' comments about the monarchy
Reform has been urged to suspend its candidate in one of Scotland’s key battleground seats after reports that she posted “sickening” comments about the monarchy.
Joanna Hart, who is standing in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East, apparently posted “fuck the Royals”, “make Lizzy the last”, and compared the royal family to “benefit scroungers” on social media during the Platinum Jubilee celebrations three years ago.
This comes a day after Labour suspended its candidate for the same seat, Andy Brown, after reports that he shared pro-Russian material online.
The constituency has become a fierce battle between the Scottish Conservatives and the SNP. The Nationalists upgraded it to a ‘tier one’ key target seat after outgoing Tory leader Douglas Ross enraged local activists by standing in place of the anticipated candidate David Duguid, who is recovering from a spinal injury.
Scottish Tory chairman Craig Hoy has written to Reform’s Richard Tice urging him to suspend Hart immediately.
In his letter, Hoy writes: “If you do not act, you are saying these anti-Britain statements are acceptable. You are sending a clear message that Reform seems to tolerate sickening insults towards the late Queen and shameful anti-monarchy views. You must publicly condemn this candidate and suspend them immediately.”
Updated
Starmer says Labour would ban landlords from making prospective renters engage in 'bidding wars'
Labour would pass a law to prevent landlords conducting “bidding wars” between potential renters, Keir Starmer has said.
Asked how Labour would tackle escalating rents without implementing a rent cap, he told Sky News:
You can stop the bidding wars because what happens there is the landlord effectively goes between two or three different renters driving the rent up and up and up.
We won’t allow them to do that. We will introduce a law that says you can’t do it because at the moment what happens is they sort of go back between the renters.
The other thing we need to do is stop the extortionate deposits that are being asked of people, and make sure the conditions are good because we’ve heard of these terrible cases with mould and damp and the effect it has on people, in some tragic cases even death.”
Updated
Tories have moved closer to 'rightwing extremism' since Brexit, says Scottish Greens' co-leader Patrick Harvie
The Conservatives have moved closer to “rightwing extremism” since the Brexit vote, Scottish Green co-leader Patrick Harvie has claimed.
At the launch of his party’s manifesto in Edinburgh ahead of the 4 July general election, the PA news agency reports that Harvie claimed a lurch to the “far right” is “inevitable” after polling day.
Harvie said:
In the UK, it seems that a realignment along the far-right looks like an inevitable consequence of this election.
Alongside the growth of online radicalism and far-right conspiracy platforms masquerading as news outlets, this is a chilling threat to democracy.
Even if it ends up wiping them out, the truth is that the Conservative party itself has helped to create this.
Since Brexit, they’ve shifted ever further toward rightwing extremism and their culture war against vulnerable groups has been one of the ugliest expressions of Tory politics in recent years.”
The Green leader went on to push for the next UK government to drop the section 35 order blocking Scotland’s gender reforms.
PA reports that he also pointed the finger at Labour, claiming the party has joined the Tories in “leaning into” far-right ideas “for years”.
In the 56-page manifesto, the Greens outline plans for a wealth tax on the richest people in the UK, an end to oil and gas companies being able to advertise, and a stop on all subsidies for fossil fuels.
All public sector pension funds, the party said, should also fully divest from fossil fuels. The party would also levy a private jet tax of £1,000 a head against those using their own planes to travel to or within the UK.
Also addressing journalists and party activists at the Edinburgh launch, Harvie’s co-leader Lorna Slater said the world is “hurtling towards climate hell”.
She added new oil and gas licences are “a fast track to climate breakdown”. Slater said: “They are incompatible with our climate commitments. Any party, or any politician, that tells you otherwise is – I’m afraid – simply denying basic climate science.”
Updated
Still time for Tories to stage comeback, says Michael Gove
Michael Gove has suggested there is still time for the Conservatives to stage a late comeback and win the election, claiming: “We’re not in ‘Fergie time’ yet.”
Opinion polls overnight suggested the Conservatives were heading for a historic defeat on 4 July.
Speaking to Sky News on Thursday morning, the levelling up secretary said: “There are opinion polls, as I’ve acknowledged and as we both know, that are not great, but it’s not the 90th minute, we’re not in ‘Fergie time’ yet.”
The reference is to the reputation of Manchester United under its former manager Alex Ferguson for staging dramatic wins deep into injury time. During the team’s success in the 1990s and early 2000s, rival fans became convinced that referees were allowing United more stoppage time to score unlikely winners or equalisers.
Gove said: “There is still an opportunity for us to make these arguments and as we make these arguments … my experience is that when you do talk to voters, outline some of the tax dangers, outline some of Labour’s plans for the future, then people do think twice and people do recognise that by voting Conservative you are both ensuring that there is a strong Conservative voice in parliament, but also you are doing everything you can to prevent a series of tax increases that won’t just hit pensioners and first-time buyers, but also will hit the economy in the guts.”
He added: “I’m a Scotland fan, so you wait until the final whistle. Sometimes it looks as though the odds are against you, but you keep on fighting.”
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has said the outcome of his seat is “too close to call” and a Tory win in the election is not “the most likely outcome”.
Asked if he could win in his constituency, Hunt told the Times CEO summit in London:
Genuinely in my seat I think it’s too close to call. I have a very middle class electorate in Surrey, very highly educated and actually they have been very mobile voters for all my time in parliament, so I think it’s very hard to call. I still meet a lot of people who say they haven’t yet made up their mind.
So I genuinely don’t know the answer to that question. I’ve had the conversation with my kids, I may not be an MP after the election, and that’s OK, that’s democracy, all that sort of stuff.”
Asked if the Conservatives can win the election, he said:
It’s going to be very tough. I don’t think any of us would pretend that is the most likely outcome.
We can certainly do a lot better than the polls are suggesting and we are working very hard to do so.”
Updated
Conservative party confirms its director of campaigning has taken leave of absence
The Conservative party has confirmed its director of campaigning Tony Lee took a leave of absence on Wednesday.
His wife, Laura Saunders, is being looked into by the gambling watchdog over an alleged bet on the general election date.
A Conservative spokesperson said: “The director of campaigning took a leave of absence from CCHQ yesterday.”
Updated
Sky’s Beth Rigby and the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg are both reporting on X that Tony Lee, the Tory campaign director married to the second Tory candidate being looked into by the gambling watchdog, has taken leave of absence.
Rigby tweeted:
Tony Lee, Conservative head of campaign has took a leave of absence last night. The campaign now its’ chief two weeks out and still 20+ points behind in polls. And that’s before Qs of candidates’ conduct (Sunak promised govt of integrity, professionalism & accountability).”
Tony Lee, Conservative head of campaign has took a leave of absence last night. The campaign now its’ chief two weeks out and still 20+ points behind in polls. And that’s before Qs of candidates’ conduct (Sunak promised govt of integrity, professionalism & accountability) https://t.co/f5TO0ekXco
— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) June 20, 2024
Kuenssberg wrote: “Tony Lee, Tory Director of Campaigning, took a leave of absence from Party HQ yesterday, a Conservative spokesperson has told us”
Tony Lee, Tory Director of Campaigning, took a leave of absence from Party HQ yesterday, a Conservative spokesperson has told us
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) June 20, 2024
Updated
Further education colleges in England have seen no commitments to improve their funding from either Labour or Conservatives, leaving the sector in potential difficulties as the number of 16-18-year-olds continues to rise.
A research briefing by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) predicts that while falling numbers in schools will effectively cause a £3.5bn cut based on per pupil funding, England’s 225 FE and sixth form colleges will need more support as they see numbers rise beyond the 1.6 million students currently enrolled. But only the Liberal Democrats, among the major parties, have pledged any increase in their core funding.
Imran Tahir, research economist at the IFS, said:
Keeping spending per pupil in colleges at today’s level in real terms would require an extra £400m a year, in today’s prices, by the end of the next parliament. But while the main political parties have emphasised the importance of further education, particularly for young people, none has set out a clear plan for funding colleges.”
David Hughes, chief executive of the Association of Colleges, said college funding has been severely cut since 2010 and a £9,000 annual pay gap has opened up between college lecturers and school teachers.
The IFS also noted that there are “huge pressures on special educational needs provision,” and what it called “immense difficulties” for teacher recruitment and retention in England’s schools.
PA news agency has some more from Jeremy Hunt talking at the Times CEO summit.
On Labour’s shadow chancellor, Hunt said:
I have a lot of respect for Rachel Reeves, I like her as a person and I think what is the big difference between her approach if she becomes chancellor and my approach? It does boil down to tax.”
The chancellor added:
The Labour perspective is that they believe taxation is broadly a force for good, they believe that for social justice reasons, and they are content with tax levels as they are, in fact the Labour manifesto is actually planning to increase taxes by about £8bn a year.
If we’re going to bring down taxes, and I’m speaking as the chancellor who put them up and put them up significantly, it is a lot of hard work. It is a lot of discipline. But I think that is very, very important for our economic future.”
Asked about the possibility of a Labour “supermajority”, Hunt said:
I think one of the challenges if Labour do win is going to be on tax and spend because all the pressure from the Labour party, the labour movement, the unions is going to be to spend more.
And in the end, increasing economic growth is a good medium, a long-term way to create more money for public services, but it’s not going to make a difference in the next year or so, and so I think that may well end up, if that happens, with higher taxes.”
He added: “I think there is also a concern that if Labour use that majority to give the vote to 16-year-olds, they could then create a situation in which they have a much larger inbuilt majority for a much longer period of time and I don’t think that’ll be helpful.”
Jeremy Hunt says it's not 'fair' to say there is 'sustained economic scarring' from Truss's mini budget
Jeremy Hunt has said it is not “fair” to claim there is “sustained economic scarring” from Liz Truss’s mini-budget.
According to the PA news agency, the chancellor told the Times CEO summit:
It was one of the – well it was the most – dramatic week in my life in terms of decisions I had to take when I got that rather unexpected call from Liz Truss asking me to be chancellor.
Which I thought was a hoax and refused to take the call and could not imagine any situation ever where Liz Truss would actually ask me to be chancellor, so that was a bit surreal, and then in that first week literally I’m picking the entire mini-budget.
But I don’t think it’s fair to say that there was a sustained economic scarring from that. I think if you look at us now with lower inflation, higher growth than most major economies we’re actually doing very well.”
Updated
The Guardian’s Politics Weekly UK is in the London suburb of Chingford and Woodford Green, where a spat between Labour and its former candidate is threatening to split the progressive vote.
The Guardian’s John Harris talks to the now independent candidate, Faiza Shaheen; Labour’s new candidate, Shama Tatler; and Iain Duncan Smith, who has represented the area for the Conservatives for more than 30 years, here:
Liberal Democrats say Rishi Sunak 'must suspend' Laura Saunders
The Liberal Democrats have said that Rishi Sunak “must suspend” Laura Saunders, the Conservative party candidate that is being looked into by the gambling regulator over a bet relating to the timing of the general election.
Responding to the news Liberal Dem deputy leader Daisy Cooper said:
Rishi Sunak must find his backbone and suspend Laura Saunders from the Conservative party whilst this investigation is ongoing.
It would be an utter disgrace if Conservative politicians were shown to be more focused on turning a quick buck rather than the needs of the country.
The Conservative party has proven itself utterly unfit for office. Voters are sick to the back teeth of this endless carousel of chaos, sleaze and scandal.
People across the country are crying out for change and that is why in many areas they are backing the Liberal Democrats to get a strong local champion that will take their issues right to the heart of parliament and not take them for granted any longer.”
The Liberal Democrats have pledged to spend £300m over the next parliament to fill 1.2 million potholes a year.
According the PA news agency, the Lib Dems said the UK is facing a “pothole postcode lottery”, with some councils taking up to 18 months to fix a pothole in their area.
Under the proposals, money will be redirected from the existing road-building budget to pay for the improvements.
Lib Dem leader Ed Davey said:
“The Conservatives have driven us down a motorway of decay – roads are crumbling and motorists are suffering as a result.
The Conservatives have overseen cuts to our transport network, maintenance works delays and the decline in the state of our roads. For all of their lip service to motorists, it’s clear the Conservatives have failed them.
Only the Liberal Democrats have a real plan to fix the state of our roads by giving the money to local councils, who know their roads and are best placed to fix them.”
The Labour party has previously committed to fixing 1m potholes a year, funded by deferring the A27 bypass and instead spending the £320m on repairs across the country.
The Lib Dems have highlighted the results of a few freedom of information (FoI) requests. The FoIs found that Westminster city council and Stoke-on-Trent city council took more than 18 months to fix a pothole in their area
Meanwhile, Surrey county council took 207 days to fix a pothole, and Hertfordshire county council took 90 days, according to the party’s FoI.
Updated
Laura Saunders named by BBC as Tory candidate being 'looked into' by gambling regulator
The BBC has named the Conservative party candidate that is being ‘looked into’ by the gambling regulator over a bet relating to the timing of the general election (story first mentioned at 08.07 BST).
Chris Mason, the BBC’s political editor, has revealed that the Tory candidate in question is Laura Saunders, the party’s candidate in Bristol North West and has worked for the Tories since 2015. She is also married to the party’s director of campaigns, Tony Lee, says Mason.
According to the BBC, it is not known when the bet was placed or for how much money.
Saunders has been approached for comment by the BBC and has not replied.
Good morning. As Helen said earlier, the theme among the politicians today is housing.
Angela Rayner has pledged that renters will be “better off” with Labour, with the party stating that an affordable and secure rented sector is “crucial” to its plans for economic growth, reports the PA news agency.
The party’s plans include a ban on no-fault evictions, introducing legal protections for tenants when it comes to mould, and putting an end to rental bidding wars and upfront payments.
Labour has also committed to alleviating the current crisis in private renting by building 1.5m new homes over the next five years, and cracking down on extortionate rents.
Rayner, Labour’s deputy leader and shadow housing secretary, said:
Time and time again, the Tories have failed to stand up for renters. From endless delays to no-fault evictions, to failure to sort damp, cold and mouldy homes, the Conservatives are failing working people.
Labour will call time on a decade of Tory vested interest and put renters first. An affordable, secure private rented sector is vital for economic growth, allowing young people to save for a mortgage with more money in their pockets to spend in the day-to-day economy.
Our plans will support good landlords but we are calling time on unscrupulous landlords strangling growth.
Labour will take action to protect renters, with an immediate ban on no-fault evictions, an end to rental bidding wars and extended protections against damp, mould and cold.
The only real way to make renting more affordable is to build more homes, that’s why we have a plan to build 1.5m homes over five years as an antidote to Britain’s failing private rented sector.
Renters will be better off with Labour.”
The party has also said it will aim to cut energy bills and reduce fuel poverty by requiring all landlords to meet energy efficiency standards by 2030.
Gove is being asked about housing on the Today programme:
He “sympathises hugely” with young people wanting to buy or rent homes.
“We need to make it easier to access finance,” he says. “We’re also going to have a new revived help to buy scheme”.
“There is a particularly acute situation in London,” he says, and has written to the mayor, Labour’s Sadiq Khan, about this.
That is it from me, Helen Sullivan. My colleague Amy Sedghi will take it from here.
Updated
Second Tory candidate being 'looked into' by gambling regulator, BBC reports
BBC political editor Chris Mason is reporting that a second Conservative Party candidate is being ‘looked into’ by the gambling regulator over a bet relating to the timing of the General Election.
Mason quotes an unnamed Conservative Party spokesperson as saying, “We have been contacted by the Gambling Commission about a small number of individuals. As the Gambling Commission is an independent body, it wouldn’t be proper to comment further, until any process is concluded.”
Last week, Rishi Sunak’s closest parliamentary aide, Craig Williams, apologised for placing a £100 bet on a July election three days before the prime minister announced the date for the poll.
Michael Gove, asked about the story on the BBC, said it would be “reprehensible” for someone to use inside information to bet on the date of the General Election.
Asked about reports the Gambling Commission was investigating a second Conservative candidate for placing a bet on the date of the election, Gove told the BBC:
If people have used inside information to place bets, that is deeply wrong.
What I can’t do is sort of get too much into the detail of the case while an investigation is going on.
But I can talk about the broad principle and you’re absolutely right, it’s reprehensible.”
Michael Gove has also told the BBC that Labour could install “yes men and women” in public bodies if it wins a large majority at the election.
Arguing Labour would use a large majority to “rig the system” and ensure it remained in power, the cabinet minister told the BBC, per PA:
My concern is that Labour would use whatever tools they have, if they have that sort of level of unchecked power in the Commons, to entrench it.
I think there are a number of other things that they would seek to do as well, for example make sure that many of the public bodies that we all rely on to help to run our lives, instead of having a balance of people from across the political spectrum with real skills that will help, I think there may be a tendency for them to put people who will be yes men and women in.
That is certainly a concern that I’ve heard from voters in some of the conversations that I’ve had and I do think that it is a factor.”
This is still Helen Sullivan with you, by the way (looks like I have my own stoppage, ehem, Fergie time).
Updated
Gove: 'We’re not in "Fergie time" yet'
Using a relatable football analogy, Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities Michael Gove has insisted there is still time for the Conservatives to defy the polls, saying: “We’re not in ‘Fergie time’ yet.”
The Cabinet minister told Sky News:
There are opinion polls, as I’ve acknowledged and as we both know, that are not great, but it’s not the 90th minute, we’re not in ‘Fergie time’ yet.
There is still an opportunity for us to make these arguments and as we make these arguments my experience - and I know it’s just me and a range of seats, not every seat in the country - my experience is that when you do talk to voters, outline some of the tax dangers, outline some of Labour’s plans for the future, then people do think twice and people do recognise that by voting Conservatives you are both ensuring that there is a strong Conservative voice in Parliament, but also you are doing everything you can to prevent a series of tax increases that won’t just hit pensioners and first-time buyers, but also will hit the economy in the guts.”
…I’m a Scotland fan, so you wait until the final whistle.
Sometimes it looks as though the odds are against you, but you keep on fighting.”
Well, he is certainly right about the odds. For those not familiar with the expression ‘Fergie time’, here is an explanation from Football Fancast:
Manchester United are synonymous with late goals. Their long-enduring reign of terror, when a double-digit clock ticks over 90, changed what added time was known as during the Sir Alex Ferguson era. Instead of ‘stoppage time’, it was christened ‘Fergie Time’ - a lingering aphorism that added time is awarded to allow a last-minute winner or equaliser.”
With that, this is me, Helen Sullivan, signing off without a football analogy.
Updated
Labour under pressure to be more radical about reforming private renting
Back to housing: Labour is facing pressure to deliver more radical reforms of private renting amid fears landlords will find new ways to evict tenants despite the party confirming it would end no-fault evictions, ban bidding wars and introduce time limits to fix potentially lethal mould.
In a campaign push aimed at the “rip-off private rented sector”, Labour’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, and the shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, claimed private renters would be £250-a-year better off under a Labour government after it forces landlords to improve the energy efficiency of leaky rental homes.
Private landlords would no longer be able to auction rented homes to the highest bidder and requests for upfront rent will be capped, although it is not clear at what level. Labour has reiterated its pledge to “immediately ban no-fault evictions” and said it will “crack down on unscrupulous landlords ripping off tenants with extortionate rents and lurid living conditions”.
It was four weeks before election day when I spoke to one member of the constituency Labour party in Holborn and St Pancras, in central London, as he was on his way out of the door to go canvassing in Barnet, several miles away in north London. This is not at all unusual: victory is assured in Keir Starmer’s constituency, which has been continuously red since its creation in 1983. Next door, in Islington North, it was once a similar story. It has been Labour since 1937, with a couple of turbulent SDP years in the 80s; their canvassers have in the past been twinned with Stevenage, considered more useful there than in their own backyards.
Bookies are giving odds on Starmer’s win in his constituency of 1/250 and 1/500, making him one of the safest bets in the general election. The result in Islington is less predictable, since Jeremy Corbyn is standing as an independent. His popularity as a local MP is well known. But, as Corbyn’s communications guy, Oly Durose, tells me, there are the people on the doorstep who say: “I’ll vote Jeremy, of course. I’ll vote Labour.” Hard to say from this distance which of those loyalties will win out – the party or the man – once everyone is clear that they are at odds.
Almost every member of the constituency Labour party who spoke to me did so on condition of anonymity. Sometimes that was because what they’re engaged in would see them expelled from the party (canvassing for Corbyn, for instance, when Labour’s candidate is Praful Nargund); other times because they’re embroiled in local rivalries and enmities of such epic history, spanning decades, that to break cover in the press would be an inelegant escalation.
In neither constituency is any party but Labour in serious contention, but in each there is an independent challenger from the left. That reflects the wider picture: this election has 459 independent candidates standing, about 10% of the overall number, and more than twice as many as in 2015. But the red-on-red battle varies from place to place, in its subjects and its symmetry.
Theme of the day: housing.
Housing Secretary Michael Gove and Shadow Housing Minister Matthew Pennycook will be in the Today program from 8.10am. Keir Starmer will be campaigning in North Yorkshire on Thursday morning where he is expected to tour a housing development.
That interview is over. The takeway was: there is no doubt from these polls that the Tories will lose. What is interesting (to pollsters, primarily) is how much the geographical differences – so, how many more seats the Tories will lose than would be indicated simply by them trailing 20 points overall.
The Guardian’s Ipsos poll showed the Tories winning just 115 seats, with Labour on 453.
Updated
John Curtice: What all these polls are trying to do is work out the geographical difference in party performance. All of the polls are telling us that the Conservative party is on course to lose more seats than what would happen if we just said what would happen if the Conservatives were just on 20 points.
Nick Robinson asks whether Curtice is in any doubts that the Conservatives are headed for defeat.
John Curtice: in terms of vote share [they] are headed for their worst result since the first world war
Updated
John Curtice says two things stand out about the latest polls. The first is that only 63% of people say they are going to vote for Labour or the Conservatives, which could be a record low. The second is that just 21% said they would vote for the Tories.
Political scientist and pollster Professor John Curtice is BBC Radio 4 right now with Nick Robinson, and we’ll bring you the key points from that interview.
Updated
Sunak not expected to make campaign visits on Thursday
Here are some more politicians’ movements this morning. Rishi Sunak is not expected to make any campaign visits on Thursday, per PA, ahead of his Question Time appearance tonight:
Keir Starmer will be campaigning in North Yorkshire on Thursday morning. He is expected to tour a housing development.
Housing Secretary Michael Gove is on the morning round for the Conservatives. Gove will visit west London at 10.30.
Matt Pennycook, shadow housing minister, is on for Labour.
Liberal Democrats leader Ed Davey will visit Sheffield in the morning.
Nigel Farage will make a speech in Frodsham, Cheshire at 11.30am before possibly doing a walkabout in a nearby town.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, at 8.30am, and shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves, at 11.20am, are speaking at the Times CEO summit.
Scottish Greens General Election manifesto launch with co-leaders Lorna Slater and Patrick Harvie.
Shadow rural affairs secretary Rachael Hamilton will launch Scottish Conservatives’ rural manifesto on Thursday morning.
At 8pm: The Question Time leaders special, with Sunak, Starmer, Ed Davey and John Swinney.
Updated
NHS will need extra £38bn a year by 2030, thinktank warns
More now on that report into the NHS. The NHS will need £38bn more a year than planned by the end of the next parliament in order to cut the care backlog and end long treatment delays, political parties have been warned.
Labour and Conservative promises on NHS funding “fall well short” of what the beleaguered health service needs to recover from years of underinvestment, according to the Health Foundation.
Politicians are not being honest with the public about the money needed to revive an NHS that is grappling with record numbers awaiting care, inadequate access to GPs and a collapse in public satisfaction, it added.
The analysis said: “Addressing the funding required to improve the NHS would mean facing up to difficult trade-offs with the funding needed by other public services and levels of taxation.
“Honesty about these trade-offs has so far been conspicuous by its absence from a general election debate that has been characterised by ‘a conspiracy of silence’ about the choices on public spending and taxation that will confront the next government.”
Whoever is prime minister on 5 July should “level with the public” about the true level of funding the NHS will need to once again deliver key waiting time targets, such as the 18-week wait for hospital care, as well as paying staff more and increasing capital investment.
NHS bosses endorsed the Health Foundation’s analysis. “Put simply, if a new government is going to fulfil campaign promises to tackle NHS backlogs and improve performance, then it will have to invest further,” said Dr Layla McCay, the NHS Confederation’s director of policy. The NHS will need “billions of extra funding”, she added.
Julian Hartley, the chief executive of hospitals group NHS Providers, said health trusts desperately need more capital funding to tackle the effects of “chronic underinvestment in buildings and facilities”, which has left some hospitals so decrepit that they “threaten patient and staff safety”.
This morning's front pages
It is 7am in the UK. Let’s take a look at today’s lead stories.
The Guardian has an interview with shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves, who has promised to close the gender pay gap, which now stands at 14.3%. She promises to make companies of more than 250 employees report on and come up with plans to fix pay disparities.
GUARDIAN: Reeves pledges to close gender pay gap ‘once and for all’ if Labour wins #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/Yq6Tvjp21z
— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) June 19, 2024
And then there are the Tories, who dominate the rest of the headlines thanks to some terrible polls, along with words like “bloodbath”, “despair” and “worst defeat for 100 years” – or wait, make that “for 200 years”.
The Financial Times is a little more restrained, with Sunak “taking credit for” inflation falling to the BoE target. Sunak, the FT writes, “argued that the Tories, who trail the opposition Labour party in the polls by about 20 points, had restored economic stability and could cut taxes as a result.”
“However”, the article continues, “services and core inflation remain higher than in the Eurozone and the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee is widely expected this Thursday to keep rates on hold at their 16-year high of 5.25%”
It quotes an economist as saying an August rates cut is a “long shot”.
FT UK: Sunak claims credit as inflation hits BoE’s target for first time in 3 years #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/GiwfcxEqSS
— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) June 19, 2024
The Times
TIMES: Tories set to suffer worst poll defeat for 100 years #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/7yZWysLBPu
— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) June 19, 2024
The i: Tories despair as poll signals worst defeat in 200 years.
I: Tories despair as poll signals worst defeat in 200 years #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/DKCtlFMpCd
— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) June 19, 2024
The Independent: Major poll shock: Sunak to lose seat in Tory bloodbath
INDEPENDENT: Major poll shock: Sunak to lose seat in Tory bloodbath #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/x0rs9qrwDK
— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) June 19, 2024
The Express and Daily Mail are leading on Just Stop Oil activists spraying orange powder paint over Stonehenge.
Updated
YouGov poll predicts worst result for Tories in party's history
In case you missed this late yesterday: Conservatives are projected to slump to their “lowest seat tally in the party’s almost 200-year history” at the General Election, according to the latest YouGov poll.
YouGov said its latest study projects Labour to secure 425 seats, the Tories 108, the Liberal Democrats 67, SNP 20, Reform UK five, Plaid Cymru four and the Green Party two. It noted such a scenario would hand Keir Starmer a 200-seat majority while it added Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is “likely” to win in Clacton.
The findings are similar to those from the Guardian’s Ipsos MRP poll on Tuesday, which showed the Conservatives winning just 115 seats, with Labour on 453.
YouGov used a technique known as multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) to model the outcome of the election in every constituency across Britain, PA reports.
It said the estimated seat projections were based on modelled responses from 36,161 adults in England and Wales, and 3,818 in Scotland, between June 11 and 18. Several high-profile Conservatives, including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, would lose out if the projection played out at the ballot box on 4 July.
YouGov wrote:
Our new MRP has the Conservatives on their lowest seat tally in the party’s almost 200-year history.
Our latest model has 109 seats as toss ups – meaning that the winning party’s lead is less than five points. Sixty five marginal seats are contests between the Conservatives and Labour.”
What have the two major parties said about prison reform?
The Conservative manifesto omitted any mention of the plan to scrap short prison sentences. It also fails to mention a second element of the sentencing bill, which would have lowered the prison population – a move to extend eligibility for early release under the home detention curfew scheme for people serving sentences of more than four years.
Labour insiders said the party would force through planning permission for new prisons but have not said how it would deal with an immediate overcrowding crisis, saying they had not had access to government data but were aware that they faced a “brutal inheritance”. The party is widely expected to form the next government.
Prisons in England and Wales will be at ‘breaking point’ in July, governors told
Prison governors have been warned that jails will be so overcrowded by the second week of July that they will struggle to accept any more inmates, plunging an incoming government into an immediate crisis.
The heads of jails in England and Wales were informed by HM Prison and Probation Service officials earlier this month that data pointed to an “operational capacity breaking point” only days after the 4 July general election.
The development signals a significant logistical headache for an incoming justice secretary. It is expected to trigger Operation Early Dawn, a crisis measure that allows offenders to be housed in police cells when jails are full, while other measures can prompt magistrates courts to delay cases.
The measures are in addition to a temporary government scheme under which prisoners can be released up to 70 days early.
Tom Wheatley, the president of the Prison Governors Association, said: “We understand that we will no longer be able to receive prisoners from court in the second to third week of July. It is not an exact science – but it is very soon after the election.
“This position was projected some time ago. The outgoing government did not take the necessary action in a timely fashion to avoid this.”
Wheatley said any attempt to cram further offenders into prisons beyond the operational capacity could be challenged in the courts.
“If a new government arrives and says: ‘We want more people in,’ it would be challenged in court by the PGA because ministers would be placing our members at risk,” he said.
Best pictures from the campaign trail on Wednesday
Top of the photo ops from yesterday: Starmer toured supermarkets with Rachel Reeves. (Politicians: they walk down supermarket aisles just like us).
And Sunak toured a nuclear energy plant…
…and answered questions on an LBC phone-in:
Scottish Conservatives release their rural manifesto
The Scottish Conservatives released their rural manifesto at midnight, telling farmers they’re “on their side”.
Rachael Hamilton, the party’s rural affairs spokeswoman, said the sector has been “shamefully neglected” by the Scottish Government, PA reports.
She will launch the manifesto at the Royal Highland Show in Edinburgh on Thursday.
The plans include delivering £1bn to farming across the UK to allow the sector to use gene-editing technology.
Hamilton accused SNP ministers of “repeatedly” letting down farmers, crofters and workers in the agriculture sector, as she set out plans to introduce a young person’s agri-enterprise fund to support new entrants into the industry, while also tackling crime with a Rural Theft Bill.
She said: “Rural Scotland has been shamefully neglected by a central belt-focused SNP Government over the last 17 years.
“Our dedicated rural manifesto clearly shows how we are the voice of these communities who feel abandoned by ministers in Holyrood.
“That feeling is particularly strong among our farming and agriculture communities. As they descend on the Royal Highland Show, I am delighted to outline our positive vision to support them going forward.”
Updated
A new report says that neither the Tories nor Labour have fully addressed the £38bn ($48bn) funding shortfall in the National Health Service (NHS).
The next government will need to increase healthcare funding by 4.5% per year in real terms over the next five years to help with Covid recovery, meet rising needs and improve services, analysis by the Health Foundation thinktank said.
Updated
Rachel Reeves vows to close gender pay gap ‘once and for all’ if she is chancellor
Rachel Reeves has promised to close the gender pay gap “once and for all” and make flexible working the norm if she becomes Britain’s first female chancellor.
In an interview with the Guardian, the shadow chancellor said she wanted to shatter the “last glass ceiling in politics” and felt a “big responsibility” to use the Treasury to improve the position of women across the UK, including by making sure they were properly rewarded at work.
A Labour government would make flexible working the default from day one for all workers, except where it is not reasonably feasible, while big companies with more than 250 staff would be required to publish, and then bring in, action plans to close the gender pay gap.
Reeves said she planned to pull other policy levers including creating more nursery places and free school breakfast clubs, reviewing parental leave within the first year of government, and working with business to appoint more female executives.
The gender pay gap in the UK currently stands at 14.3%, according to the TUC, and would take 20 years to wipe out if it continues to fall at the same rate. It is worse in some sectors such as finance, banking, law and education.
Peston also asked Starmer about the NHS:
Peston: Now we’re almost out of time. NHS right at the top of voters’ concerns. Your spending plans are meaner than George Osborne’s during the austerity years. Why?
Starmer: Well there will be this injection of cash straight away to get our waiting lists down. 40,000 extra appointments each and every week. That’ll be 2 million a year, which means we can clear the backlog on waiting lists. That takes a huge pressure off the NHS. We also need to reform and use much better use of technology in the NHS. As I say, I know from running a public service, if you put more money in the top, you can get a better product. But you’ll only get a materially better product if you reform at the same time. And that’s why, whether it’s the NHS or other public services, we will invest, of course we will, but we will also reform.
Starmer says there is ‘no magic wand’ to improve public services
In a pre-recorded interview with ITV’s Robert Peston, which aired late last night, Keir Starmer said that there was no magic wand to fix the public services, but that Labour has a “serious plan for growth”.
Peston: Now talking about economic stability it’s an open secret there is a ₤20-40bn black hole in the public finances. What will you do in the early months of a Labour government to fill it?
Starmer: Well, we obviously want to put a cash injection into our public services straight away. So into our health service…
Peston: But that’s not ₤20-40bn. That’s not what you’re proposing.
Starmer: No, but they are the first steps. And that’s important because in order to make our economy grow and to deal with the problems of funding, we’ve got to get people back to work. At the moment, nearly 8 million on a waiting list. If we can start clearing that waiting list, people can get back into the work environment. Investing in our schools as well and in our police. But in order to make the money available, we have to be very clear we’re not going back to austerity. I ran a public service for five years. I know what austerity feels like and I know how hard it has hit and the long lasting effects. But in the end, there’s no magic wand that we can wave the day after the election and fix all the country’s problems. And nobody would believe us if we said there is. What we can have is a serious plan for growth. And we can start on that on day one.
Keir Starmer says there is 'no magic wand' to fix public services
Good morning, and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of the run-up to the UK general election with me, Helen Sullivan.
Labour leader Keir Starmer has told ITV’s Peston that there is “no magic wand” to fix the public services: “And nobody would believe us if we said there is. What we can have is a serious plan for growth. And we can start on that on day one.”
Also overnight: Rachel Reeves, in an interview with the Guardian, has promised to close the gender pay gap.
The Health Foundation, a think tank, has found that the NHS funding pledged by leading political parties “falls well short” of what is needed to make improvements to the service.
The Scottish Conservatives released their rural manifesto at midnight. Farmers have been told the Scottish Conservatives will be “on their side”, PA reports.
More on these stories soon.
It is now just before 6am. Here is what is coming up today:
08.30am: Jeremy Hunt and Rachel Reeves are at the Times CEO summit in London. The Chancellor will be speaking at 08.30 and the shadow chancellor at 11.20.
09.30am: Scottish Greens General Election manifesto launch in Edinburgh. With co-leaders Lorna Slater and Patrick Harvie.
10.30am: Alliance Party manifesto launch. Leader Naomi Long will outline her party’s Leading Change manifesto in Carryduff.
12pm: Bank of England interest rate decision.
8pm: Rishi Sunak, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and John Swinney will be on Question Time
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