UK can expect year of stagnation after narrowest of escapes from recession

Official figures showed that Brexit and the energy crisis were damaging the UK’s ability to generate cash from exports. Photograph: Henry Nicholls/Reuters

It was a recession in all but name: that is the conclusion of many economists who argue that while the official data shows the UK economy stood still in the last three months of 2022 rather than contracting, it is still in bad shape.

To be precise, the economy actually expanded by 0.01% in the fourth quarter, an increase so statistically insignificant that it is rounded down to zero. Had Britain not added just £77m to its £2.2tn gross domestic product (GDP) then it would have fallen into a technical recession, characterised by two consecutive quarters of negative growth.