MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom takes a closer look at UFC on ESPN 62’s main event: Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho
UFC on ESPN 62 (ESPN/ESPN+) takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Jared Cannonier UFC on ESPN 62 preview
Staple info:
- Record: (17-7 MMA, 10-7 UFC)
- Height: 5’11” Age: 40 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 77.5″
- Last fight: TKO loss to Nassourdine Imavov (June 8, 2024)
- Camp: MMA Lab (Arizona)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ 10 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Improved ability to counter
^ Dangerous hooks and uppercuts
+ Hard leg kicks
^ From both stances
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Serviceable wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Shows improved getups/scrambles
+ Works well from topside
^ Heavy ground-and-pound
+/- 4-2 opposite UFC-level southpaws
Caio Borralho UFC on ESPN 62 preview
Staple info:
- Record: (16-1 MMA, 6-0 UFC)
- Height: 6’1″ Age: 31 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 75″
- Last fight: Knockout win over Paul Craig (May 4, 2024)
- Camp: Fighting Nerds (Brazil)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Judo brown belt
^ Multiple judo accolades
+ Muay Thai brown belt
+ 4 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ Good feinting presence
+ Sneaky lead hand
+ Hard southpaw kicks and crosses
^ Attacks all three levels
+ Solid takedown ability
^ Inside the clinch or shots in the open
+ Solid transitional grappling
^ Works well to and from the back
Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho point of interest: Middleweight mashup
The main event on ESPN features yet another middleweight matchup in the UFC’s Apex.
Steadily developing a hard-hitting game since stepping onto the UFC scene, Jared Cannonier has made marked improvements under the care of John Crouch and the rest of the coaching staff at The MMA Lab. Now, moving much more smoothly, Cannonier can shift his stance pre or post-combination, punctuating his presence more effectively than before.
Typically utilizing pressure to create openings for offense, Cannonier keeps hard shots on a hair trigger, ready to come forward or counter at the drop of a dime. The 13-year pro has also seemingly picked up his stablemate’s knack for throwing the calf kick (or low leg kicks), showing the ability to attack his opponent’s lower extremities from both stances.
However, Cannonier is still not beyond being kicked or countered himself, so I’ll be curious to see how he approaches someone like Caio Borralho.
A converted southpaw who fights out of the somewhat still unheralded Fighting Nerds team, Borralho has been successfully learning on the job during his undefeated run inside the octagon.
Although his game initially smacked of a poor man’s Conor McGregor impression on the feet, Borralho has steadily been adding layers to his striking – especially when it comes to his lead hand. Borralho possesses the standard attacks from the southpaw power side, but does a quiet amount of his work off of his lead as a naturally right-handed fighter.
Playing particularly well off of his feints, Borralho, akin to his opposition, wields a sneaky right hook that’s used both coming forward and off the counter. Borralho has also been smartly incorporating more jabs into his repertoire, which should come in handy opposite Cannonier.
Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho breakdown: Potential grappling threats
Considering that both parties are dangerous in their own way from topside, no one should be shocked if this party hits the floor this Saturday.
As the statistics would suggest, Borralho is the more likely man to look for takedowns in this fight.
An accoladed judoka who transitioned into Brazilian jiu-jitsu and MMA, Borralho demonstrates a deceptively flexible takedown game. Even though Borralho could do a better job of setting up his shots with strikes, the 31-year-old commands an athletic level-changing double that can be utilized offensively or as a reactionary counter in the open.
When working from the clinch, Borralho appears to be competent with everything from trips to shuck-bys from the bodylock. That said, Cannonier, at least at 185 pounds, has proven that he’s not easy to control.
From Cannonier’s improved ability to defensively scramble to the slugging shots that he sneaks in mid-transition, the 40-year-old has come a long way from the light heavyweight who was prone to playing guard when taken down. And when Cannonier is the one who ends up on topside, the “Killa Gorilla” is quick to unleash hell from above in the form of unforgiving ground-and-pound.
Borralho is a solid transitional grappler from topside (particularly when working against the fence), but he’ll need to demonstrate improved urgency should he end up underneath Cannonier.
Despite being a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Borralho has shown to be a bit too content to wait for submission or stand-up opportunities off of his back. That said, if Borralho can create scrambling scenarios from either side of the equation, then he could find some key back-taking opportunities opposite the getup style of Cannonier.
Even though Cannonier works with an excellent coach and camp that ingrains solid getup tactics, the general process tends to involve a bit of back exposure – which can be dangerous when paired up with a savvy backpacker like Borralho.
Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho odds
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the Brazilian, listing Borralho -250 and Cannonier +200 via FanDuel.
Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho prediction, pick
Although the oddsmakers opened this fight a bit closer, MMA gamblers are doing their usual thing in regards to getting tumescent over the thought of fading an aging fighter.
I can’t say I agree with the width of the current spread above, but I don’t disagree with who is favored to win this fight.
Even though part of me wants to fall into my usual trap of fading the public hype by picking the more proven product at a discounted price, I see some potent stylistic openings that Borralho could find in this fight.
Cannonier may technically have a winning record opposite UFC-level southpaws at 4-2, but the MMA Lab product – outside of a controversial stoppage to Nassourdine Imavov and a couple of knockdowns to former champions like Robert Whittaker and Jan Blachowicz – has sustained the majority of his stoppage losses and knockdowns to southpaw fighters.
In fact, when looking back through Cannonier’s catalog, southpaw counters and fighters who could jab from either stance have traditionally been stylistic kryptonite for “The Killa Gorilla.”
Although Borralho running into the wall that is Cannonier and eventually imploding down the stretch is an outcome that’s absolutely on the table, I can’t help but see the Brazilian’s improved lead hand and counters having some serious play this Saturday. Add in the fact that Cannonier is coming off a quick, 2-month turnaround off of being wobbled in his last bout, and I smell of a club-and-sub for Borralho that comes off of a right hook in Round 2.
Prediction: Borralho inside the distance
Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho start time, where to watch
As the main event, Cannonier and Borralho are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 12:30 a.m. ET. The fight airs live on ESPN and streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC on ESPN 62.
