MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC on ESPN 50.
UFC on ESPN 50 takes place Saturday at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn. The card airs on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 3-2
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 71-57-4
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive. My goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel.com. If you’d like more detailed analysis, check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So without further ado …
Ignacio Bahamondes (-220) vs. Ludovit Klein(+184)
Kicking off the main card in Nashville is a lightweight matchup between Ignacio Bahamondes and Ludovit Klein that has fireworks written all over it.
I’ve always been interested in Klein’s potential as a savvy southpaw who exploded onto the scene, but I suspect Bahamondes’ length and skills make for a tough stylistic ask.
Unless Klein can hurt Bahamondes early, then I see the Slovakian fighter tiring himself out trying to control his opponent and the pace of this fight.
The pick is Bahamondes to win in Round 3 by either a front kick or a front choke.
Tanner Boser (-146) vs. Aleksa Camur (+124)
Despite having absolute bangers like Billy Quarantillo vs. Damon Jackson on the menu, the UFC matchmakers saw fit to double up on light heavyweight matchups by putting Tanner Boser and Aleksa Camur on the main card.
Camur comes from a solid camp in Ohio, but it’s hard to know what to expect from the 27-year-old after more than two years away from the cage.
Although Boser won’t have as big a speed advantage down at 205 pounds, I think his size and output should serve him well in this spot.
I’ll semi-reluctantly side with Boser to win by decision.
Gavin Tucker (+146) vs. Diego Lopes (-174)
Serving as a solid offering at featherweight is a potentially fun fight between Gavin Tucker and Diego Lopes.
Tucker is an incredibly smart and savvy southpaw who can fight on the floor, but we haven’t seen the Canadian since his knockout loss to Dan Ige more than two years ago.
Lopes is a fun action fighter coming off a short-notice defeat to Movsar Evloev earlier this year.
Even though Tucker will have a larger cage to work with, I suspect the pace and pressure from Lopes will produce unfavorable scenarios for the returning 37-year-old.
The pick is Lopes to secure a submission in the second round.
Dustin Jacoby (+134) vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu (-158)
Filling out the main card is a light heavyweight matchup between Dustin Jacoby and Kenedy Nzechukwu.
Perhaps it’s because I’m a big fan of both guys and their camps, but this is the hardest fight on the docket for me to make a pick on.
Part of me wants to take a flier on Jacoby to win by first-round knockout given his success in matchups with size parity in MMA. That said, Jacoby also is 1-4 opposite UFC-level southpaws and will need to respect potential improvements from Nzechukwu (who continues to look better each time out).
Add in the Fortis MMA fighter’s more dangerous clinch and grappling game, and I will ultimately side with Nzechukwu to dog out a decision win on the scorecards in a fight that I expect to be both competitive and crazy.
Jessica Andrade (+300) vs. Tatiana Suarez (-375)
The co-main event in Nashville features an important strawweight encounter between Jessica Andrade and Tatiana Suarez.
Despite this betting line feeling a bit disrespectful to Andrade, I can understand the sentiment behind the hype and support for Suarez.
Aside from dominant wrestlers being easy to get behind, wrestling, in particular, is a skill that has been historically rare at 115 pounds.
Suarez has had to deal with a lot of adversities in the forms of injuries and layoffs, but I suspect her style could pose problems for Andrade if the Brazilian is unable to keep this on the feet.
Andrade may be a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt in her own right, but her scrambling and get-up style stacks up nicely with the front chokes that Suarez likes to look for.
Both of Andrade’s southpaw losses were due to stronger grapplers pressing their advantages, and I suspect that it’s more of the same here. The pick is Suarez by second-round submission (D’Arce choke).
Cory Sandhagen (-335) vs. Rob Font (+270)
The main event on ESPN features an impromptu catchweight between two talented bantamweights in Cory Sandhagen and Rob Font.
Initially slated to face Umar Nurmagomedov, Sandhagen will instead meet Font on roughly two weeks’ notice.
Font already was getting ready to fight Song Yadong later this month in Boston, but the UFC needed a quality name to step in to save the show in Nashville, Tenn.
Both men are excellent strikers who have quietly made solid strides in their grappling games, so don’t be surprised to see either shoot takedowns. That said, I think Sandhagen has the style to dictate the terms of this fight.
Font is excellent in boxing and clinch ranges, but Sandhagen is the more dynamic fighter who attacks multiple levels. I don’t know if Sandhagen will get a late stoppage, but I’ll side with “Sandman” to pull away down the stretch via bodywork and counters for a competitive but clear win on the scorecards.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC on ESPN 50.
