MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC on ESPN 46.
UFC on ESPN 46 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card streams on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 4-1
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 54-42-3
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel.com.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Muslim Salikhov (-200) vs. Nicolas Dalby (+170)
Opening up the main card is a potential welterweight war between Muslim Salikhov and Nicolas Dalby.
Between Dalby’s pace to the fact that this fight is taking place in the smaller octagon, it seems like the Danish fighter is a bit livelier than the betting odds above suggest.
That said, savvy counter strikers who offer power from their left side have traditionally wreaked havoc against Dalby.
Salikhov may not be a southpaw, but he offers everything from a decent left hook to a spinning arsenal that is still accurate at this stage of his career. I’ll take a flier on Salikhov to stop Dalby by the second round via a spinning sidekick to the liver.
Nikolas Motta (+154) vs. Manuel Torres (-184)
In a matchup made with fireworks in mind, Nikolas Motta will take on [autotatg]Manuel Torres[/autotag] at 155 pounds.
Given his length and sharp counters, I can understand why Torres is the betting favorite. That said, the Mexican fighter will be playing with fire if he meets Motta in the pocket.
It’s a risky pick that is probably tainted by my admitted Xtreme Couture bias, but I’ll back Motta to find a follow-up left hook in the first round of what I imagine will be a gunfight.
Pat Sabatini (-215) vs. Lucas Almeida (+164)
Serving as a solid offering at 145 pounds is a bout between Pat Sabatini and [autotatg]Lucas Almeida[/autotag].
Although Almeida’s size difference looks daunting at first glance, I believe that the smaller octagon will favor the superior submission grappler in Sabatini.
However, I’d be silly if I was to overlook the striking aggression and overall savvy of Almeida – who is a live dog in this spot.
I’ll pick Sabatini to get back on track with a leg lock in the first round, but no one should be shocked if Almeida comes away from this one with another knockout win.
Armen Petrosyan (+122) vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (-156)
Filling out the main card is a middleweight attraction between Armen Petrosyan and Christian Leroy Duncan.
Despite initially coming in looking to take a shot on the more experienced underdog in Petrosyan, I ended up going the other way after rewatching some tape.
Even though Petrosyan could pull off an upset via volume and leg kicks as the more consistently-paced fighter, I believe that his propensity to eat left hands makes Duncan a deceptively tricky matchup.
Aside from having an accurate left hand that he can launch from both stances, Duncan also appears to be the better athlete with a higher ceiling.
I’ll take Duncan to win via first-round knockout.
Arman Tsarukyan (-1400) vs. Joaquim Silva (+680)
The co-main event in Las Vegas features a lightweight fight between Arman Tsarukyan and Joaquim Silva.
Despite not disagreeing with who is favored, the betting line listed above is incredibly wide for an all-action affair.
Silva is as dangerous as he looks, but I suspect that he can get outworked down the stretch if Tsarukyan mixes in his wrestling.
It may be a nailbiter early, but I’ll take Tsarukyan to survive the initial storms en route to a third-round finish on the floor.
Jared Cannonier (-104) vs. Marvin Vettori (-122)
The main event on ESPN features a middleweight showdown between Jared Cannonier and Marvin Vettori.
Cannonier, who is 3-2 opposite UFC-level southpaws, has been steadily improving his game under the care of John Crouch and the MMA Lab.
The Arizona native has hard hooks off the counter and throws crushing calf kicks that will likely serve him well opposite Vettori. That said, Vettori has moved shop to Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas and has been making improvements of his own.
Ultimately, this will likely be a competitive striking affair that will see Cannonier’s power weighed by Vettori’s volume.
I’ll semi-reluctantly side with Vettori to edge the decision on the judges’ scorecards.
