MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC on ESPN 43.
UFC on ESPN 43 takes place Saturday at AT&T Center in San Antonio. The main card airs on ESPN following prelims on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 2-3
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 23-20-2
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by Tipico Sportsbook.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Chidi Njokuani (-155) vs. Albert Duraev (+135)
Despite the current UFC matchmakers continually moving further away from Joe Silva’s bulletproof approach of booking lightweight or featherweight fights to kick off main cards, Chidi Njokuani versus Albert Duraev should be a banger for as long as it lasts.
Despite my admitted Xtreme Couture bias making me want to lean toward Duraev to finally get back to his wrestling, I have a hard time trusting the Russian wildman to reliably establish win conditions.
Not only has Njokuani improved upon a lot of his traditional ground deficiencies, but the 15-year pro also possesses the knees and southpaw counters that have troubled Duraev in the past.
Duraev could easily prove why he was initially favored, but I’ll take Njokuani by first-round knockout.
Alex Perez (+160) vs. Manel Kape (-190)
Quietly serving as one of the best offerings on the main card is a flyweight attraction between Alex Perez and Manel Kape.
Despite Perez continually catching strays from the public (while the matchmakers do him no favors), I still believe that the native of Lemoore is a live dog and an elite talent in this division.
Should Perez punish Kape’s kicking defense or dust off his wrestling shoes en route to an upset, then I’ll be incredibly happy to be wrong on this pick.
That said, Perez’s recent inconsistencies and past susceptibilities to counters have me very reluctantly siding with Kape to score a knockout off of a flying knee or uppercut by the second round.
Andrea Lee (+220) vs. Maycee Barber (-270)
Filling out the main card is a women’s flyweight fight between Andrea Lee and Maycee Barber.
Despite Lee being the more experienced and technically sharp fighter, I can understand why Barber is the favorite here.
Aside from the promotional push, Barber is a fighter whose style has very friendly optics – even when she’s not landing effectively (as seen in her controversial win over Miranda Maverick). Whereas Lee, who quietly does a decent amount of damaging work, tends to visibly tire as she wears the fight in multiple ways.
For that reason, I’ll take Barber to finish strong in order to secure the scorecards for a decision win.
Nate Landwehr (-210) vs. Austin Lingo (+170)
Despite being a big fan of Alex Caceres, I’m happy to see Austin Lingo step in to face Nate Landwehr on semi-short notice.
Both men are action fighters who like to compete at a breakneck pace, but I believe that Landwehr has some edges in the experience and grappling departments should he be able to survive Lingo’s striking storms.
Lingo is an improving fighter who comes from a great camp in Fortis MMA, I just have a sneaky suspicion that the chaos of this contest could force a shot from the Texas-based fighter.
For that reason, I’ll take Landwehr and his improved front-choke series to score a club-and-sub in the third round.
Holly Holm (-250) vs. Yana Santos (+200)
The co-main for in San Antonio features a bantamweight attraction between Holly Holm and Yana Santos.
Despite both of these women coming from a striking base, each has (unfortunately for the fans) really seemed to embrace fighting from the clinch.
In Santos’ defense, she appears to be the more damaging fighter in this space, but she’ll be at an athletic disadvantage against Holm – who is also the better wrestler.
Even though this fight has a controversial split decision written all over it, I’ll reluctantly side with Holm to utilize the larger octagon and expose Santos’ propensity to eat left-sided strikes en route to another win on the cards.
Marlon Vera (+145) vs. Cory Sandhagen (-170)
The main event on ESPN features a fantastic bantamweight battle between Marlon Vera and Cory Sandhagen.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, this is an ultra-competitive contest no matter how you cut it.
Both fighters are good about working all three levels and are each incredibly durable in their own right.
Vera has an advantage in both how he wears and dispenses damage, but I’ll slightly favor Sandhagen’s volume and movement in the bigger cage to edge out rounds in his favor.
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