MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC Fight Night 230.
UFC Fight Night 230 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The event streams on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 3-2
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 101-75-5
Welcome to MMA Junkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado …
Christian Rodriguez (-156) vs. Cameron Saaiman (+132)
Kicking off the main card on ESPN+ is a potential bantamweight banger between Christian Rodriguez and Cameron Saaiman.
Although part of me is somewhat surprised to not see Saaiman installed as the betting favorite (especially after Rodriguez missed weight), I can’t say that I disagree with the spread listed above.
Saaiman may be the undefeated fighter, but the South African has conducted himself sloppily when it comes to the fouls he commits. For this reason, I suspect that the cool and composed Rodriguez can counter and capitalize on the 22-year-old’s mistakes.
The pick is Rodriguez by second-round submission.
Michel Pereira (-200) vs. Andre Petroski (+168)
Serving as a solid offering at middleweight is an impromptu matchup between Michel Pereira and Andre Petroski.
Pereira, who is moving up to middleweight after missing weight back at UFC 291, was originally slated to meet Marc-Andre Barriault before the Canadian was forced to withdraw.
Stepping in for Barriault is Petroski, who was reportedly traveling and training abroad in Thailand when he got the call.
If Petroski had more than a week’s notice to prepare for Pereira, then I’d likely not think twice about taking a flier on the American as the superior grappler in the smaller cage.
I still believe that the betting value is on Petroski to sell out for a submission, but I also can’t shake the image of Pereira stunning Petroski with a body kick or intercepting him on a level change with a flying knee.
I’ll semi-reluctantly side with Pereira to score a knockout by the second round.
Jonathan Martinez (-116) vs. Adrian Yanez (-102)
Filling out the main card is an excellent matchup at 135 pounds between Jonathan Martinez and Adrian Yanez.
I’m a big fan of both of these fighters, but it’s nice to see Martinez finally getting some respect from the betting public.
That said, this is a tough fight to call regardless of who you’re favoring.
I believe that Yanez can find success if he gets aggressive and pressures Martinez, I’m just not sure that will be something he’s willing to do considering that he’s coming off the first knockout loss of his career.
For that reason, I suspect that Martinez’s southpaw kicking game and clinch knees will provide problems for Yanez’s more boxing-centric stylings.
A late stoppage via leg kicks wouldn’t surprise me, but I’ll officially pick Martinez to edge out the scorecards in what has all the makings for a competitive affair.
Jennifer Maia (-158) vs. Viviane Araujo (+134)
The co-main event in Las Vegas features a showdown at women’s flyweight between Jennifer Maia and Viviane Araujo.
Considering that Araujo has lost three of her last four fights, the UFC brass matching her up with a fellow Brazilian on a winning streak feels somewhat cruel.
Araujo came in with a lot of promise and potential, but she could quietly age out of this division if she can’t put things together. I was hoping that Araujo would turn things around in her last outing opposite Amanda Ribas, but the 36-year-old shockingly displayed even worse durability than her opponent.
For that reason, I can’t help but side with the striking improvements of Maia to shine through in this spot.
Although a decision is the most likely path to victory, I’ll pick Maia to score a shocker by getting it done with strikes in the third round.
Sodiq Yusuff (-178) vs. Edson Barboza (+150)
The main event at The Apex features potential fireworks between ranked featherweights, Sodiq Yusuff and Edson Barboza.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, both men are striking-first fighters who are very familiar with the art of eight limbs.
I believe that Barboza has the better kicking defense between the two, but I’m not sure I can trust the Brazilian veteran’s durability inside of the pocket.
Don’t get me wrong: Yusuff has a quiet history of eating head kicks and cross counters that shouldn’t be overlooked in this spot, I just suspect that the Lloyd Irvin product will be the more powerful and durable party in the punching trades.
I hope I’m wrong, but the pick is for Yusuff to find a knockout within the first two rounds.
