In the unlikely event any U.S. importers rubbed their hands together at the prospect of a tariff rebate this year, they will be sorely disappointed. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent believes $175 billion (collected under a tariff scheme that has now been ruled illegal) will never see the light of day for American consumers.
And Wilbur Ross, who served as commerce secretary in the first Trump administration, is inclined to agree. Ross believes tariff rebate cases will drag on for years, ultimately returning to the Supreme Court that stepped away from refund decisions in the first place.
Late last month, the Supreme Court ruled that President Trump could not use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to levy duties on trading partners and directed revenues to be contested in international trading courts. Already, a bevy of cases have been brought forward by importers seeking to recover some of the duties they paid last year.
They’ll be in for a long wait, said Ross, 88, who served in Trump’s cabinet from 2017 to 2021. He warned that consumers will the ultimate losers. While importers shouldered the initial tariff hit, some or all of that burden likely trickled back to consumers, via wholesalers and retailers. The Yale Budget Lab estimates an implied pass-through of tariff costs to consumers of roughly 40% to 76% for core goods and 47% to 106% for durables.
