MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC Fight Night 226.
UFC Fight Night 226 takes place Saturday at Accor Arena in Paris. The event streams on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 5-1
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 86-65-4
Welcome to MMA Junkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Morgan Charriere (-355) vs. Manolo Zecchini (+270)
Kicking off the main card is a featherweight matchup between Morgan Charriere and Manolo Zecchini.
Although Zecchini is not shy about bringing the action, I’m not sure I like how his style stacks up with Charriere on paper.
Aside from Charriere being the more credentialed fighter in the grappling department, the former Cage Warriors champion also has some deceptive depth to his resume.
Add in his ability to mix in strikes to the body, and I’ll take Charriere to survive the Italian’s initial storms in order to earn a stoppage via strikes by the third round.
William Gomis (-215) vs. Yanis Ghemmouri (+172)
Between injuries and contractual weight difficulties, the UFC matchmakers decided to play some musical chairs by making a featherweight fight between William Gomis and Yanis Ghemmouri.
Although Ghemmouri seemed destined to be a featherweight, it’s hard to like his chances on short notice opposite the more experienced Gomis.
I don’t think it’ll be the most exciting fight of the night, but I suspect that Gomis can counter and stymie Ghemmouri’s style down the stretch for a decision win.
Volkan Oezdemir (-188) vs. Bogdan Guskov (+152)
With Azamat Murzakanov withdrawing from this contest, Volkan Oezdemir will now meet Bogdan Guskov on short notice.
Despite being a Master of Sports in boxing, Guskov appears to have an apathetic attitude toward defense.
For that reason, I suspect that Oezdemir can survive the initial storm and score a knockout win by round two.
Benoit Saint-Denis (-170) vs. Thiago Moises (+138)
Filling out the main card is a solid lightweight offering between Beniot Saint-Denis and Thiago Moises.
Even though the oddsmakers set Moises as the favorite, public money has come in on Saint-Denis and I can understand why.
Aside from Moises arguably not living up to the hype that was initially put upon him, the Brazilian fighter has a propensity to get pushed back to the cage that will likely work against him opposite a pressure fighter like Saint-Denis.
Couple that with the fact that Moises tends to struggle against southpaws, and I’ll take Saint-Denis to win a clean sweep on the scorecards.
Manon Fiorot (-188) vs. Rose Namajunas (+152)
The co-main event in Paris features a women’s flyweight encounter between Manon Fiorot and Rose Namajunas.
Even though I came into this fight leaning toward the more reliable volume of Fiorot, I found myself siding with Namajunas after re-watching some tape.
Aside from the fact that Fiorot will tempt fate with grappling attacks that she arguably doesn’t need, the French fighter has nearly dipped into fight-ending head kicks in her last four UFC outings.
I’ll be curious to see how Namajunas does against a more dedicated southpaw, but I’ll still side with her to recreate a similar scene to her win over Michelle Waterson by sparking a second-round submission win off an open-stance head kick.
Ciryl Gane (-178) vs. Serghei Spivac (+178)
The main event on ESPN+ features a heavyweight showdown between Ciryl Gane and Serghei Spivac.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, this fight goes one of two ways: either Gane is able to stymie Spivac’s attacks and knock him out of the break, or the Moldovan fighter gets to his winning conditions in the grappling department.
Between Gane’s past follies in title fights and his propensity to reset himself from the clinch, I’ll take a flier on the underdog in Spivac to utilize the closed quarters to his advantage and score a submission win by the end of round one.
