MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC Fight Night 221.
UFC Fight Night 221 takes place Saturday at The Theater at Virgin Hotels in Las Vegas. The card streams on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 2-3
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 16-16-2
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by Tipico Sportsbook.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Anton Turkalj (-110) vs. Vitor Petrino (-110)
Even though this is a solid event that is littered with fun bantamweight fights throughout, the UFC matchmakers saw fit to open the main card with a light heavyweight attraction between Anton Turkalj and Vitor Petrino.
It’s hard not to appreciate the shtick from Turkalj, I’m just not sure how high his ceiling will be.
Despite having one of the better nicknames I’ve heard in some time, “The Pleasure Man” was not able to satisfy Dana White on the Contender Series and was subsequently squeezed out by “The Jail Man” Jailton Almeida in his promotional debut.
Petrino, on the other hand, appears to have a clear edge in athleticism with a more damaging style in tow. I’ll take Petrino to find the finish in what I predict will be a wild first round.
Mario Bautista (-1100) vs. Guido Cannetti (+650)
Coming in as a late addition to the main card is a bantamweight battle between Mario Bautista and Guido Cannetti.
Although I don’t disagree with who is favored, I believe that this line is way too wide for the matchup at hand. Cannetti may be well into his 40s at this point, but the Argentinian fighter is a legit athlete and hard-hitting southpaw who will be dangerous early.
• Mario Bautista, who faces southpaw Guido Cannetti at #UFCLasVegas, is officially 0-1 opposite UFC-level lefties, losing to Trevin Jones. Not only did Jones catch him w/a lead shovel hook, but he also out-kicked Bautista’s leg at nearly 4-1 in the 1st frame. #TheSouthpawReport
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) March 10, 2023
That said, Cannetti is far too easy to force to the fence – which will probably play right into Bautista’s recent takedown trends.
I’ll pick Bautista to flex his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt by securing a submission in the first round.
Jonathan Martinez (+210) vs. Said Nurmagomedov (-275)
Serving as a solid offering at 135 pounds is an excellent matchup between Jonathan Martinez and Said Nurmagomedov.
Everyone seems to think wrestling with Nurmagomedov is the path of least resistance, but I suspect that a southpaw kicker could give him problems.
Despite Nurmagomedov officially standing at 1-0 opposite UFC-level lefties, the 30-year-old Russian has shown to struggle with switch-stance fighters who could counter from southpaw.
Add in Martinez’s underrated counter-wrestling, and I’ll take a flier on the Factory-X fighter to score an upset on the scorecards by offering the more impactful offense.
Nikita Krylov (-165) vs. Ryan Spann (+140)
Filling out the main card is a recycled light heavyweight attraction between Nikita Krylov and Ryan Spann.
Both fighters are offensive dynamos who are do-or-die by nature, but I find myself siding with the experience and skills of Krylov.
Although Krylov also makes suspect in-fight decisions, the Ukrainian appears to have more reliable grappling skills and stamina to boot. Krylov has also shown the ability to recover when things get turbulent (as I suspect that will serve him well in this fight).
I’ll be happy for Spann and coach Sayif Saud if the American is able to upset the odds, but I’ll reluctantly pick Krylov to force a stoppage via strikes by the end of the second round.
Alexander Volkov (+125) vs. Alexander Romanov (-150)
The co-main on ESPN+ features a heavyweight showdown between Alexander Volkov and Alexander Romanov.
Despite my usual complaints regarding heavyweight affairs on main cards, this is a meaningful matchup between ranked fighters.
Romanov’s aggressive grappling sensibilities will give him a clear edge in the smaller octagon, I just wonder how he fairs if he fails to find a finish early.
I have an admittedly terrible record at picking Volkov fights, but I’ll side with the pressure-tested veteran to survive the early storm and force a stoppage via strikes come the third round.
Petr Yan (-275) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (+210)
The main event in Las Vegas features an important bantamweight battle between Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, this should fight should be non-stop action for as long as it lasts.
Even though Dvalishvili appears to be about as unkillable as Blagoy Ivanov, I don’t think he has the ability to punish Yan’s mistakes like past opponents.
Yan’s style of counters and bodywork may sadly score poorly with the judges, but his hand-fighting and left-sided strikes should be extra potent in this contest.
I’ll pick Yan to win a competitive but clear decision on the scorecards.
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