MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC Fight Night 213.
UFC Fight Night 213 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card streams on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 0-5
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2022: 104-65-1
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive. My goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by Tipico Sportsbook.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado …
Dustin Jacoby (-190) vs. Khalil Rountree (+145)
Kicking off the main card is an exciting light heavyweight affair between Dustin Jacoby and Khalil Rountree.
Despite initially leaning toward Jacoby to survive the early storm and pull away down the stretch, I have a sneaky suspicion that Rountree’s southpaw power proves to be problematic in the smaller cage.
Jacoby, who is officially 1-2 against UFC-level southpaws, seems to have a harder time seeing left hands regardless of his opposition’s stance. Couple that with the jab and step-knee counters we’ve seen from Rountree, and I’ll take a flier on him to upset the applecart by knocking Jacoby out in the first round.
Josh Fremd (-165) vs. Tresean Gore (+130)
Even though part of me can’t help but cheer for a guy like Gore, I fear that this may be another tough matchup for “The Ultimate Fighter” alum. Aside from being tall and long, Fremd is a well-rounded and experienced athlete who works at a high pace.
Gore packs a heavy left hook and leg kick that I see serving him well in this contest, but his lack of volume doesn’t make me like his chances. I’ll take Fremd to frustrate Gore at range before eventually finishing things off on the floor by the end of Round 2.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-210) vs. Jared Vanderaa (+160)
Vanderaa, who comes from a wrestling base and owns a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, has all the tools necessary to win this fight inside the small cage. The potential problem, however, is that Vanderaa seldom ever initiates takedowns and is historically happy to have whatever fight his opponents want.
For that reason, I’ll reluctantly take Cortes-Acosta to knock Vanderaa out with a counter before the final frame.
Tim Means (+150) vs. Max Griffin (-200)
The co-main event on ESPN+ features a meeting of welterweight warlords, Tim Means and Max Griffin.
Despite Means being one of my favorite fighters, I find myself sadly leaning the other way in this spot.
Means may be the more technical and well-rounded fighter, but his legendary durability is not what it used to be after a professional career that dates back to 2004.
Spencer Fisher vs. Tim Means (2005) pic.twitter.com/cEV42FdB8u
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) June 23, 2021
Add in the fact the right hands seem to be the common culprit, and I can’t help but see Griffin catch him with a crashing shot in the first round. I hope I’m wrong, but the pick is Griffin by knockout.
Calvin Kattar (-105) vs. Arnold Allen (-120)
The main event in Las Vegas features a potential war at featherweight between Calvin Kattar and Arnold Allen.
Although I’m excited to see more of Allen, I find myself slightly leaning toward the more proven party in Kattar. As stated in my in-depth breakdown, Allen’s propensity to play off the backfoot may be problematic in the smaller octagon (particularly over five rounds).
For that reason, I’ll side with the durable Kattar to extend exchanges and land elbows in close in order to edge out scorecards down the stretch.
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