UFC 309 is set to deliver an epic night of fights this Saturday at Madison Square Garden, headlined by a heavyweight clash for the ages between Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic. This matchup pits the greatest light heavyweight of all time against the most accomplished heavyweight in UFC history, with Jones looking to cement his legacy and Miocic aiming to reclaim his throne.
In the co-main event, we have a lightweight rematch between Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler. Their first encounter was a thrilling back-and-forth battle, and this one promises to be just as explosive. Both fighters have a point to prove, with Oliveira seeking to reassert his dominance and Chandler desperate to climb back into title contention.
The main card also features the highly anticipated return of Bo Nickal, the wrestling phenom who faces his toughest test yet in veteran Paul Craig. Nickal’s grappling prowess will be put to the test against Craig’s unorthodox submission game. Further down the card, we see the return of former middleweight champion Chris Weidman as he takes on Eryk Anders in a pivotal bout for both men’s careers. UFC record holder Jim Miller also features, looking to add another win to his illustrious resume against Damon Jackson.
With a mix of established stars, rising prospects, and high-stakes matchups, UFC 309 is shaping up to be one of the most compelling events of the year. The blend of styles and storylines across the card promises fireworks from the opening bell to the final round. UFC 309 should be an exciting night of fights with that said, let’s take a look at the odds, best bets, and props for this event.
UFC 309 Odds
| Fighter | MoneyLine Odds | Total Rounds |
| Jon Jones | -625 | O 2.5 +110 |
| Stipe Miocic | -800 | U 2.5 -140 |
| Charles Oliveira | -245 | O 1.5 -110 |
| Michael Chandler | +200 | U 1.5 -120 |
| Bo Nickal | -1350 | O 1.5 +135 |
| Paul Craig | +800 | U 1.5 -175 |
| Karine Silva | -298 | O 2.5 -298 |
| Viviane Araujo | +240 | U 2.5 +220 |
| Mauricio Ruffy | -900 | O 1.5 -180 |
| James Llontop | +600 | U 1.5 +140 |
| Jonathan Martinez | +124 | O 2.5 -154 |
| Marcus McGhee | -148 | U 2.5 +120 |
| Chris Weidman | -105 | O 2.5 -215 |
| Eryk Anders | -115 | U 2.5 +165 |
| Jim Miller | +150 | O 2.5 -154 |
| Damon Jackson | -180 | U 2.5 +120 |
| Roberto Romero | +600 | |
| David Onama | -900 | |
| Marcin Tybura | -148 | O 1.5 -145 |
| Jhonata Diniz | +124 | U 1.5 +114 |
| Mickey Gall | -142 | O 2.5 -180 |
| Ramiz Brahimaj | +120 | U 2.5 +140 |
| Oban Elliott | -298 | O 2.5 -270 |
| Bassil Hafez | +240 | U 2.5 +200 |
| Veronica Hardy | -142 | O 2.5 -345 |
| Eduarda Moura | +120 | U 2.5 +250 |
UFC 309 Best Bets & Props
Jon Jones by KO/TKO (+120)
Jon Jones is poised to deliver a knockout blow to Stipe Miocic at UFC 309, solidifying his status as the greatest heavyweight of all time. Jones’ transition to heavyweight has been nothing short of spectacular, as evidenced by his dominant performance against Ciryl Gane2. His improved power, coupled with his unparalleled fight IQ and creative striking, makes him a formidable threat to Miocic’s chin.
While Miocic is undoubtedly a tough opponent, his long layoff since March 2021 could prove detrimental against a fighter of Jones’ caliber2. Jones’s reach advantage and diverse striking arsenal will allow him to pick Miocic apart from range, setting up devastating power shots. Jones’ grappling prowess will force Miocic to focus on takedown defense, opening up opportunities for strikes. As the fight progresses, Jones’ superior cardio and ability to make mid-fight adjustments will wear down Miocic, leading to a late-round knockout that cements Jones’ legacy as the undisputed GOAT of MMA.
Oban Elliott by Decision (-130)
Oban Elliott’s path to victory over Bassil Hafez at UFC 309 lies in his well-rounded skill set and recent momentum. Elliott’s striking accuracy and defensive prowess give him a significant advantage, allowing him to control the pace and land meaningful strikes. While Hafez possesses a strong grappling game, Elliott’s takedown defense and ability to scramble back to his feet should neutralize this threat. Elliott’s recent winning streak highlights his consistency and determination. His disciplined approach and ability to adapt to different fighting styles make him a formidable opponent. Expect Elliott to outpoint Hafez over three rounds, securing a well-deserved decision victory.
Marcin Tybura (-148)
Marcin Tybura is poised to secure a victory over the undefeated Jhonata Diniz at UFC 309, leveraging his vast experience and well-rounded skill set. Tybura’s 34-fight resume, filled with high-caliber opponents, gives him a significant edge over the relatively untested Diniz. The Polish veteran’s grappling prowess will be a key factor, averaging 1.42 takedowns per three rounds with a 33% success rate. This advantage could neutralize Diniz’s striking, forcing the Brazilian out of his comfort zone.
Tybura’s defensive skills, stopping 77% of takedown attempts, will frustrate Diniz’s offensive game plan. His ability to absorb punishment and maintain a high work rate throughout the fight will be crucial as the bout progresses. While Diniz boasts impressive striking statistics, Tybura’s experience in five-round fights and superior cardio will allow him to weather early storms and capitalize on his opponent’s fatigue in the later rounds, securing a hard-fought decision victory.
