MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC 297.
UFC 297 (pay-per-view, ESPN, ESPN+) takes place Saturday at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto.
Last event’s results: 3-1
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2024: 3-1
Welcome to MMA Junkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Arnold Allen (+156) vs. Movsar Evloev (-194)
Kicking off the main card in Toronto is a fantastic featherweight matchup between Arnold Allen and Movsar Evloev.
Despite not disagreeing with Evloev being favored in this spot, I suspect that Allen could be a tricky stylistic ask for the “Russian Frankie Edgar.”
Akin to the Edgar comparison above, Evloev is a relentless wrestle-boxer who can be difficult to keep up with whether the action is on the feet or the floor. That said, the dipping propensities that come with said style could run Evloev right into the power lanes of a southpaw like Allen.
Not only have we yet to see Evloev against UFC-level southpaws, but the 29-year-old Russian’s aggressive style has put him in some incredibly precarious submission positions throughout his promotional tenure.
Couple that with Allen’s knockout power and ability to stage comeback submissions, and I can’t help but take a flier on the Englishman to score a surprising club-and-sub over Evloev in round 3.
Chris Curtis (-188) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (+152)
Filling out the main card is a middleweight matchup between Chris Curtis and Marc-Andre Barriault.
Even though I’m a fan of the relentless grind that Barriault brings to the table, I can’t say that I disagree with the betting spread above.
Barriualt’s striking has certainly improved since working with Henri Hooft at Kill Cliff FC, but the Canadian’s game does not appear to be nearly as consistent against southpaws, showing mixed results against UFC-level lefties at 1-1.
Not only is Curtis an incredibly skilled southpaw, but his body punching and uppercuts should also have some serious play given Barriualt’s reliance on a high guard.
Things could get ugly if this fight goes the distance, but I’ll take Curtis to score a somewhat surprising stoppage in round 2.
Neil Magny (+265) vs. Mike Mallot (-350)
Serving as an interesting offering at welterweight is a battle between Neil Magny and Mike Mallot.
Despite Magny being incredibly tempting to take at these odds, I have a hard time supporting the UFC welterweight wins leader considering how he’s looked during this recent stretch of his career.
Moreover, Mallot looks (and sounds) like someone who can pass the vaunted “Magny test.”
Although Mallot hasn’t consistently shown the ability to leg kick like a Lorenz Larkin or cage corral like a Santiago Ponzinibbio, the former Team Alpha Male striking coach can competently kick and has shown solid power and proprioception with his hands.
Mallot also sounds like an incredibly intelligent and pragmatic fighter, so I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s well aware of Magny’s ability to suck people into draining clinch affairs.
Add in Mallot’s excellent submission prowess, and I can’t help but side with him to find a finish by the second round.
Raquel Pennington (+140) vs. Marya Bueno Silva (-172)
The co-main event for UFC 297 features a vacant title fight at women’s bantamweight between Raquel Pennington and Mayra Bueno Silva.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, I believe that Pennington’s style – albeit underrated – could run her right into the strengths of Silva.
Whether we’re talking about Pennington’s propensity to reset in the clinch or the dipping tendencies from her wrestle-boxing style at range, these traits have traditionally cost her against competent kickers and clinchers alike.
For that reason, I’ll side with Silva, who carries an underrated kicking game at range and is an arguable woodchipper in the clinch.
I’ve been high on Silva since Jump Street, so it would admittedly feel good to see her get the belt this Saturday (no disrespect to Pennington, who I’ve also championed in the past).
Pennington certainly has the tools to make this ugly, but I’ll pick Silva to score a submission by round 4.
Sean Strickland (-120) vs. Dricus Du Plessis (-102)
The main event in Toronto features a middleweight title fight between Sean Stickland and Dricus Du Plessis.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, seeing money come in on Du Plessis is something I forecasted at the outset of fight week.
Despite possessing an incredibly awkward game that you can’t believe is working, Du Plessis has proven to be one of the most potent fight finishers regardless of division. From spastic blitzes on the feet to his prioritization of submissions over position, Du Plessis defies logic and is nearly impossible to discourage.
Should he end up with the title this Saturday, then no one should be surprised. That said, I still find myself siding with the sitting champion in this spot.
Stickland may not have the most eye-catching style to speak of, but the American has traditionally had solid staying power and cardio while wielding a game that’s, at the very least, consistent. Coupled with the improvements that we saw come to fruition last year (largely due to his work with Eric Nicksick at Xtreme Couture), I can’t help but pick Strickland to survive the initial storms in order to find a stoppage in the latter rounds.
