MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 293.
UFC 293 takes place Saturday at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPNews/ESPN+ and early prelims on ESPN+.
Israel Adesanya (24-2 MMA, 13-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 34 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 80″
- Last fight: Knockout win over Alex Pereira (April 8, 2023)
- Camp: City Kickboxing (New Zealand)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ UFC middleweight champion
+ Professional kickboxing experience (76-5-2)
+ Professional boxing experience (5-1)
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ 16 knockout victories
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ Knockout power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Superb feints and footwork
+ Creative striking flow
^ Variates well to the body
+ Dynamic kicking arsenal
+ Improved counter wrestling
^ Underhooks, getups, separations
+ Active and attacking guard game
Sean Strickland (27-5 MMA, 14-5 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’1″ Age: 32 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 76″
- Last fight: TKO win over Abus Magomedov (July 1, 2023)
- Camp: Xtreme Couture MMA (Las Vegas)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ King of the Cage middleweight title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 11 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ 21-2 in the middleweight division
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Long and accurate jab
^ Coming forward or off the backfoot
+ Solid inside of the clinch
^ Strikes well off the breaks
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Good transitional grappler
^ From top or bottom
Point of interest: Striking with the Stylebender
The main event for UFC 293 features a middleweight title fight between Israel Adesanya and [autotag]Sean Strickland[/autoag].
Fighting to his frame, Stickland does a decent job of staying long with the occasional front teep and a series of stinging jabs. Whether he is circling with his jab off the counter or connecting it to crosses down the center line, the jab is a shot that Strickland has had a nice feel for since entering the organization.
When feeling in stride, Strickland isn’t afraid to shift stances mid-combination in order to better target fleeing foes. Opposite Krzysztof Jotko, Strickland was able to utilize said shifts to fuel a steady dose of low kicks that were quite effective.
Nevertheless, despite being a fighter who can do his share of countering, Strickland himself is not beyond being countered due to his upright posture and a propensity to sometimes move and follow in straight lines.
Enter Adesanya.
Known as “The Last Stylebender,” Adesanya took to martial arts at a young age and is no stranger to dealing with power on the big stage. A cunning martial artist, Adesanya earned his moniker with a creative striking flow that helped him accrue titles in both the boxing and kickboxing arenas.
Seamlessly moving through space, Adesanya will intelligently use feints and footwork to help establish his reads and set up his shots accordingly. The reigning UFC middleweight champ keeps whipping right hands and crushing check hooks on a hair-trigger, while offering pinpoint counter-crosses when cleverly shifting to his southpaw stance on retreat.
When feeling in stride, the 34-year-old talent will unleash a dynamic array of kicks, whether they’re powerfully thrown from the rear or sneakily delivered off of his lead. And when Adesanya smells blood in the water, he will celebrate his reach by varying his punches, using extended hands to hide the kill-shots to come.
From hand traps that parlay into elbows, to clinches that lead to knees, Adesanya shows solid answers at multiple ranges that will come in handy for this contest – particularly as time wears on. But for as talented as Adesanya is, he, too, is not beyond bested by a fighter with a better game plan and tactics.
Point of interest: Potential grappling threats
Considering Adesanya’s striking prowess on the feet, no one should be shocked if Strickland attempts to mix in his underrated wrestling and ground game.
Sure, former UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman was able to largely dominate Strickland to a decision win; but other than that, Strickland has made a solid account for himself within the wrestling realm since stepping onto the UFC scene.
Offensively, Strickland still shows the ability to hit level-changing doubles when he needs to, as well as helpful “shuck-by’s” from the body lock position that allows him to get an angle on his opponent’s back (which are all good signs considering the damage Strickland sustained in a motorcycle accident a few years back).
Although we haven’t had to see much shot defense from Strickland since his return to the middleweight division, the 32-year-old American always has done a decent job of either separating his opposition’s grips or sprawling and shutting down their takedown attempts outright.
Strickland also appears fairly flexible in scrambles, showing a solid sense of hip awareness and leg dexterity to boot. But if Stickland is serious about grappling with Adesanya, then his best bet may come in the form of well-timed shots.
Aside from learning how to better fight to his frame, Adesanya has always had a solid presence in the clinch.
Parlaying his kickboxing experience into mixed martial arts, Adesanya has shown a surprising amount of clinch savvy in regards to his counter grappling, all while maintaining the proper headspace to help keep strikes chambered off the breaks. From slick elbows to intercepting knees, Adesanya will possess plenty of threats that could stifle the approaches of Cannonier.
Even when revisiting his first professional MMA bout back in 2012, Adesanya was already demonstrating a surprising amount of clinch awareness, hitting hip tosses and displaying a basic understanding of whizzers and underhook leverage.
Since that time, Adesanya has made steady improvements to his defensive grappling, smartly fighting grips and protecting his hips while seeking separations, typically while using the cage for assistance. That said, when Adesanya is grounded, there hasn’t been much progress to speak of outside the same half-guard retentions and options he’s been relying on – but it’s also been a while since we’ve seen him fight for prolonged periods off of his back.
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and the public are clearly favoring the sitting champion, listing Adesanya -770 and Strickland +480 via FanDuel.
Although odds this wide between two capable fighters can sometimes feel suspect in MMA, I can’t say that I’m shocked to see the betting spread above. That said, I’d be careful about completely discounting the challenger this Saturday.
Strickland may be more known for the things that he says at this point of his career, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s a very well rounded and experienced MMA fighter who carries some underrated grappling skills in his back pocket. He may have failed to showcase said tools in his last outing opposite a high-level kickboxer (Alex Pereira), so don’t be surprised if Strickland actually decides to follow his coach’s game plan this time around.
Luckily for Strickland, he works with Eric Nicksick, who is hailed as one of the top MMA coaches in the game when it comes to fighter preparation and game planning. Nevertheless, it’s ultimately up to Strickland to follow said game plan and successfully execute against a fighter who also has a smart team behind him.
Adesanya, who is a staple of the City Kickboxing team in New Zealand, works with the well respected Eugene Bareman, who will surely have a solid strategy for his fighter to follow.
I suspect their strategy will be heavily rooted in leg kicks and counters given Strickland’s stance and tendencies. Should Adesanya successfully make his reads in the first two rounds without being sucked into a Strickland-style fight, then he should be able to pull away from the American and potentially find a finish in the middle rounds.
As someone with a known bias toward the challenger’s team and trainers, I obviously wouldn’t mind being wrong on this one. But as an analyst who does his best to put biases aside, the pick is Adesanya to score a TKO in Round 3.
