MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC 292.
UFC 292 takes place Saturday at TD Garden in Boston. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ABC/ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 3-3
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 78-62-4
Welcome to MMA Junkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Marlon Vera (-198) vs. Pedro Munhoz (+166)
Kicking off the main card is a potential bantamweight banger between Marlon Vera and Pedro Munhoz.
Between Vera’s well documented slow starts to his more recent habits of counter-punching, Munhoz feels particularly live as an underdog in a three-round fight.
Nevertheless, I still have a hard time trusting Munhoz to fight to his strengths considering his striking trends. And for much as you can accuse Vera of taking the first round off, the inverse can be said about Munhoz, who tends to let off the gas in the back half of fights.
I suspect we’re in for a deceptively competitive fight, but I’ll side with Vera to edge the scorecards with bigger moments that sway the judges for a decision.
Mario Bautista (-205) vs. Da'Mon Blackshear (+170)
With Cody Garbrandt falling out due to injury, Da'Mon Blackshear finds himself stepping in off of a seven-day turnaround to meet Mario Bautista on short notice.
Last seen in a UFC octagon as recently as this past weekend, Blackshear took little to no damage in securing a slick first-round twister submission over Jose Johnson. That said, I’m not so sure Blackshear will be able to do that to a fellow Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt in Bautista.
Although the MMA LAB has a solid slew of talent at 135 rounds residing on the UFC roster, Bautista doesn’t seem to get the shine he deserves (which is why I’m happy to see the matchmakers show him some love here).
Bautista is a well rounded talent who can pretty much fight everywhere, but I suspect that his superior wrestling and positional grappling are what get the job done in this spot.
The pick is Bautista by unanimous decision.
Ian Garry (-485) vs. Neil Magny (+370)
With Geoff Neal being forced to withdraw from this card, Neil Magny will now step in to face Ian Garry.
Although this has all the makings of a showcase fight for Garry, I can’t help but shake the feelings of an all too familiar trap that we often see in MMA.
As we were recently reminded, it can be dangerous to over-hype someone by putting the cart before the horse in a game as volatile as fighting. Don’t get me wrong: Garry is the deserved betting favorite who will probably knock out Magny with a counter-cross early.
But if Garry doesn’t, however, then he’ll likely find himself fending off the sticky game of Magny that has stymied so many opponents before him.
Add in Garry’s propensity to fight near the fence and surrender rear-waist synchs in scrambles, and I’ll take a very unpopular flier on Magny to pull off a controversial upset via split decision.
Zhang Weili (-320) vs. Amanda Lemos (+250)
The co-main event in Boston features a strawweight title fight between Zhang Weili and Amanda Lemos.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, Lemos’ counter striking will make her an incredibly live dog for as long as these two are standing. That said, I’m not sure how much of Lemos’ kicks we’ll see given Zhang’s ability to catch and counter those attacks.
They need to learn the open side kick catch. You know the one Saenchai taught to Zhang Weili pic.twitter.com/mvCcZLRD3h
— 9h6st21 (@9h6st21) August 21, 2022
More importantly, I believe that Zhang’s improvements in the wrestling and submission grappling departments will be the difference makers in this fight.
Working with wrestling coaches like the Hickman brothers to grappling coaches like Josh Hinger, Zhang has shown some solid trends that make me think we see a heavy dose of ground fighting this weekend.
I’ll take Zhang by second-round submission.
Aljamain Sterling (-260) vs. Sean O'Malley (+215)
The main event for UFC 292 features a bantamweight title fight between Aljamain Sterling and Sean O'Malley.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, O’Malley has much more skills than his detractors tend to give him credit for.
Whether O’Malley’s launching front kicks or hitting counter crosses, the 28-year-old talent will be a live threat for as long as he’s standing. The potential problem, however, is that I’m not sure how long that will be.
Though many will point to Sterling’s less than impressive takedown stats, I warn anyone leaning too heavily on statistics when it comes to MMA.
Aside from the fact that a majority of MMA stats are inaccurate and draw from a faulty well of information, fighters like Sterling (as well as the previously-mentioned Magny, for that matter) don’t necessarily need to complete takedowns to get to their preferred positions and win fights.
In fact, the last time Sterling fought a skilled striker with O’Malley’s build was his fight with Cory Sandhagen. And in that fight, Sterling didn’t even need to finish a takedown in order to get to Sandhagen’s back and finish the fight.
Couple that with O’Malley’s propensity to allow for back exposure in scrambles, and I can’t help but side with Sterling to find a submission by Round 2.
