MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 290.
UFC 290 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ABC/ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.
Alexander Volkanovski (25-2 MMA, 12-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’6″ Age: 34 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 71.5″
- Last fight: Decision loss to Islam Makhachev (Feb. 11, 2023)
- Camp: Freestyle MMA (Australia)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Excellent
Supplemental info:
+ UFC featherweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ National wrestling gold medalist
+ 12 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Excellent feints and footwork
+ Accurate shot selection and counters
^ Hard hooks and leg kicks
+ Solid wrestling ability
^ Takedowns, transitions, scrambles
+ Good top game
^ Ferocious ground striking
Yair Rodriguez (16-3 MMA, 10-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 30 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 71″
- Last fight: Submission win over Josh Emmett (Feb. 11, 2023)
- Camp: VFS Academy (Chicago/Mexico)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ UFC interim featherweight title
+ “The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America” winner
+ Taekwondo black belt
+ 6 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Athletic and explosive mover
+ Dynamic kicking attacks
^ Variates stance and style
+ Shows improvements in boxing range
^ Fundamentals to fancy counters
+ Serviceable wrestling and scrambling
+ Active and attacking guard
^ Excellent leg dexterity
Point of interest: Ride like lightning, crash like thunder
The main event for UFC 290 features a fun unification fight for the featherweight title between two men who aren’t afraid to risk it all for greatness.
An acclaimed wrestler-turned-rugby player, Alexander Volkanovski initially stepped onto the scene as a come-forward fighter who typically approached the pocket like an oncoming juggernaut from his compact stance. A natural athlete, Volkanovski shows little issue when having to crash distance with his patent kicks and crosses, strikes that have been typically set up off of prodding jabs.
However, since incorporating the influences of Brad Riddell and his sister gym City Kickboxing, Volkanovski has sharpened his feints, footwork, and overall striking fundamentals, measuring and moving in space more smoothly and on balance than before. The 34-year-old Australian will now change up his combination approach, doing things like leading with stance-debasing kicks and finishing off combinations with a long lead hand.
It’s a small detail, but I love when fighters use balance-disrupting leg kicks to get beats on their opposition like Alex Volkanovski does to Chad Mendes here…
Debases the stance with an inside leg kick, then utilizes shifts, prodding shots and a high guard to close in #UFC266 pic.twitter.com/lKJlN2ndIP
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) September 23, 2021
Volkanovski also has taken some of the feinting swagger from his stablemates, showing or throwing away certain shots to land others with a bigger picture in mind.
Still, I’ll be very curious to see how Volkanovski deals with southpaw looks this time around.
As seen in his last fight opposite Islam Makhachev, southpaw crosses and kicks appear to provide some problems for the reigning featherweight champ. Volkanovski also ate his fair share of knees due to the height differential, which is all interesting notes considering who he is up against this Saturday.
A dynamic, storm-riding striker, Yair Rodriguez has unabashedly translated his taekwondo skills and sensibilities at a high level.
Yair "El Pantera" Rodriguez 🇲🇽#UFC290 pic.twitter.com/G6tNKBAkDy
— Infinity MMA (@Infinity_MMA) July 3, 2023
From front kicks to aerial assaults, Rodriguez can execute high-wire offense at the drop of a dime. And though this style of fighting can require a fair share of space, the 30-year-old talent has done a better job of incorporating more punches into his repertoire.
Up until his fight with “The Korean Zombie,” you could’ve accused Rodriguez of being a one-sided fighter, primarily relying on his right side to attack. However, as we’ve seen in recent years, Rodriguez has made use of his lengthy stints between fights, demonstrating much better boxing fundamentals than before.
Whether he was throwing counter crosses from southpaw or hitting check hooks out of his orthodox stance, Rodriguez has become much more adept when it comes to using his left hand and seeing counters in the pocket. That said, the original “TUF: Latin America” winner still shows some defensive liabilities when it comes to both bodywork and pressure that will be worth looking out for this weekend.
Point of interest: Potential grappling threats
Even though Volkanovski is a superior wrestler on paper, no one should be shocked if Rodiguez elects to get offensive with takedowns of his own.
Coming onto the UFC scene with a natural gusto, Rodriguez has continued to dive confidently into the grappling realms, often initiating level-changing shots of his own.
Still, I’m not so sure that grappling Volkanovski would be the wisest move for Rodriguez.
Since reining in his aggression and fighting smarter, Volkanovski appears to be even harder to meaningfully take down and control due to his overall awareness of positioning – particularly against the fence.
Even when taken down by Chad Mendes and rear-mounted, Volkanovski’s deliberate reach across/framing creates the illusion of further back exposure/control (hence opening up opps to slide back into half-guard) as the basic theme/muscle memory from above also gets the job done here: pic.twitter.com/NehnXtPItc
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) February 7, 2023
Even when taken down, Volkanovski displays solid head positioning and smart details like a low underhook (limiting front-choke counters) when looking to execute things like half-guard getups.
Alex Volkanovski’s counter-grappling notes—love that he uses my favorite MMA getup: half guard to single-leg getups
Doesn’t reap the leg for extra leverage but nails the crucial detail of LOW underhooks BELOW the ass, as this helps thwart front-choke counters/allows re-wrestling pic.twitter.com/emQOSraVXw
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) February 7, 2023
Offensively, Volkanovski seems to stay consistent with said trends, appearing to prefer more efficient options like inside trips from the clinch as opposed to the traditional double and single-legs against the fence that he used to favor. And when Volkanovski can establish top position, he embraces his honey badger-like sensibilities by staking claims to positions through punishing strikes and rides.
For this reason, Rodriguez will need to be extra careful about falling to his back in grappling stanzas.
Despite keeping a solid focus on wrestling with coaches like Izzy Martinez, Rodriguez has incorporated high-risk grappling entanglements early and often in his career, finding success through athletic creativity fueled by his already impressive leg dexterity.
However, Rodriguez’s sometimes wild ways (especially when opting to fight from the bottom or go for leglocks) have put him in precarious positions before. In fact, since suffering a crushing defeat to Frankie Edgar back at UFC 211, the Mexican standout still continues to do things like shoot late-round takedowns or sacrifice position with Iminari rolls – all tactics that could cost him if he’s not careful.
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the sitting champion, listing Volkanovski -400 and Rodriguez +285 via FanDuel.
Despite not disagreeing with who is favored, I warn anyone who is completely discounting Rodriguez in this spot.
The Mexican fighter may have a somewhat strange resume when you go through it with a fine-toothed comb, but that doesn’t change the fact that Rodriguez offers fight-ending possibilities during every second that is in play.
Although I don’t see Volkanovski being troubled by the interim champ’s submission prowess, I do believe that Rodriguez’s southpaw head and liver kicks will be extra potent given the size and stature of his opponent.
That said, I still find myself siding with Volkanovski.
Aside from being one of the best pound-for-pound fighters on the planet, Volkanovski’s inherent style and sensibilities should serve him well in this matchup – particularly on the floor.
I’m sure that Volkanovski’s team has a solid approach to standing exchanges for this fight, I just can’t help but notice the skills and style edge that he will carry in ground exchanges.
Should Rodriguez still have his normal propensity to put himself in precarious positions from the bottom, then we will likely see a more vintage form of Volkanovski in regard to an aggressive ground-and-pound attack. For that reason, I’ll side with Volkanovski to recreate his own version of Frankie Edgar’s memorable win over Rodriguez by forcing a stoppage due to strikes by the end of the fourth round.
Prediction: Volkanovski inside the distance
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 290.
