MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC 287.
UFC 287 takes place Saturday at Miami-Dade Arena in Miami. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 5-1
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 28-21-2
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by Tipico Sportsbook.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Christian Rodriguez (+200) vs. Raul Rosas Jr.(-250)
Despite the paid portion of the card opening up with raw products from the Contender Series, this bantamweight battle between Christian Rodriguez and Raul Rosas Jr. should be fun for as long as it lasts.
Rodriguez is an underrated and well-rounded talent that seems to keep his composure under fire and is more than competent enough from the front headlock to clean up his younger counterpart should Rosas Jr. make a mistake.
That said, Rodriguez self-admittedly prefers to keep things striking and I don’t think that the persistent grappling pressure of Rosas Jr. will allow for that sort of fight. I’ll reluctantly take Rosas Jr. to grind his way to a decision win.
Kevin Holland (-250) vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio (+200)
Filling out the main card is a potential welterweight war between Kevin Holland and Santiago Ponzinibbio.
Although I don’t disagree with Holland being the odds-on favorite, I believe that Ponzinibbio’s leg kicks and activity could make him a live dog in regards to stealing rounds. But in spite of my self-admitted fandom for Ponzinibbio, I still find myself siding with Holland for his ability to find opponents with his right hand.
The official pick is for Holland to punish Ponzinibbio’s sometime-slow starts via a first-round knockout.
Adrian Yanez (-190) vs. Rob Font (+155)
Serving as a solid bantamweight addition to the main card is a fun fight between Adrian Yanez and Rob Font.
Despite my love for Font and his team, I suspect that this could be a tough matchup for the member of the New England Cartel.
Not only are counter fighters a common thread in Font’s losses, but Yanez appears to have a knack for countering jabs and straight shots, in general.
I hope I’m wrong, but I’ll take Yanez to get his reads in round one and knock Font out in round two.
Gilbert Burns (-550) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+360)
The co-main event in Miami features a showdown between welterweight locals Gilbert Burns and Jorge Masvidal.
Even though I’ve always been one to defend Masvidal’s underrated skills, I believe that we’re finally seeing the 20-year pro show signs of diminishment.
In his prime, I’d probably somewhat confidently pick Masvidal to win this fight. However, Masvidal is clearly moving on to another stage of his career, and I suspect that Burns will help show him the door via a third-round submission (neck crank).
Alex Pereira (+135) vs. Israel Adesanya (-155)
The main event for UFC 287 features an intriguing rematch for the middleweight title between Alex Pereira and Israel Adesany.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, there is a ton of context to their previous matchups that make them worth going back and watching.
I was able to correctly predict their last meeting at UFC 281, but I believe that the dynamic between them is a bit clearer this time around — and that’s directionality.
Not to be reductive, but the fighter who is coming forward has had an inherent edge in the striking exchanges throughout the series. Not only do I believe that Pereira is the more proven fighter in regards to coming forward, but he also has a higher ceiling for improvements when you look at the context of his career.
Everyone seems to be forgetting the lesson Leon Edwards taught us in regard to writing off amazing performances as fifth-round flukes, and I suspect that Pereira reminds the masses once again with a dominant decision win this weekend.
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