The 49ers on Tuesday said goodbye to another third-round pick. Tyrion Davis-Price after two seasons in San Francisco left to join the Philadelphia Eagles on a reserve/future contract. His departure is another confirmation of a failed third-round pick, something that’s become all-too-common in the Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch era.
Not that hitting on picks in the third-round is the key to good drafting. Finding good players anywhere in the draft is paramount, and the Shanahan-Lynch 49ers have been superb particularly in the later rounds finding viable starters and quality depth pieces. However, there’s still premium talent available later on Day 2 where San Francisco’s current front office has really struggled.
Take Davis-Price for instance. He was the second running back selected in the third-round by the 49ers in as many years. They took him in 2022 partly because RB Trey Sermon, their third-round pick from the year prior, struggled so much. Now both are gone before Sermon’s rookie contract is up.
It’s not just running backs though. Going back through the third-round picks in the Shanahan-Lynch tenure shows just how badly the team has missed in that portion of the draft, particularly over the last five years.
Let’s take a look at all 12 third-round picks in the seven drafts run by the Shanahan-Lynch duo, and then crunch some numbers to find out just how dire things are:
2017: CB Ahkello Witherspoon, 66th overall
Seasons with 49ers: 4
Starts: 33
The skinny: Witherspoon had an up-and-down career with the 49ers that culminated in his benching during the 2019 playoffs. A foot injury early in 2019 derailed the best start to a season in his career.
2017: QB CJ Beathard, 104th overall
Seasons with 49ers: 3
Starts: 12
The skinny: Perhaps Beathard would’ve been a better quarterback on a better version of the 49ers, but his penchant for getting pummeled kept him from fully establishing himself as the team’s starting QB.
2018: LB Fred Warner, 70th overall
Seasons with 49ers: 6
Starts: 98
The skinny: It’s hard to hit a bigger home run than the 49ers did when they took Warner in the 2018 draft. He’s been to three Pro Bowls and earned three First-Team All-Pro nods while developing into the consensus best off-ball linebacker in the league. Warner is the engine to what has been an excellent defense for the last five years.
2018: DB Tarvarius Moore, 95th overall
Seasons with 49ers: 5 (missed all of 2021 with ruptured Achilles)
Starts: 13
The skinny: Moore was drafted as a free safety, got moved to cornerback when he got to the 49ers, then looked to be on track to start at strong safety after starting half the games in the 2020 season. A ruptured Achilles tendon during the 2021 offseason cost him the entire year and ultimately derailed his ascension on the 49ers’ depth chart. He returned to San Francisco in 2022, but played just 41 defensive snaps while contributing primarily on special teams.
2019: WR Jalen Hurd, 67th overall
Seasons with 49ers: 3
Starts: 0
The skinny: Hurd was supposed to usher in a new era of positionless football for Shanahan’s 49ers. He was a former running back with tight end size who converted to wide receiver in college. The theory was extremely sound, but injuries to his back and knee kept him from ever playing a regular season snap for the 49ers in three seasons with the club.
2021: RB Trey Sermon, 88th overall
Seasons with 49ers: 1
Starts: 2
The skinny: There were opportunities for Sermon to carve out a role in the 49ers’ backfield, but his inability to play special teams hampered him, and then an injury late in the year sidelined him just as he started to find his footing on special teams. He made the initial 53-man roster in his second season, but was cut shortly after.
2021: CB Ambry Thomas, 102nd overall
Seasons with 49ers: 3
Starts: 11
The skinny: It’s been a roller coaster for Thomas during his 49ers tenure. He finished his rookie year strong as a starting CB, but then was a non-factor in Year 2, and in Year 3 he was in and out of the lineup before establishing himself as a starting outside corner after the Week 9 bye. Some playoff struggles led to his benching for the Super Bowl though, leaving a huge question mark over his future with the team.
2022: RB Tyrion Davis-Price, 93rd overall
Seasons with 49ers: 2
Starts: 0
The skinny: Davis-Price suffered a little bit of the same issue as Sermon. His inability to contribute on special teams kept him from being active on game days where the offensive opportunities might have presented themselves. He was cut and re-signed to the practice squad late in his second season. Shortly after Super Bowl LVIII he signed with the Eagles.
2022: WR Danny Gray, 105th overall
Seasons with 49ers: 2
Starts: 0
The skinny: Gray had trouble being more than just a deep threat for the 49ers in his rookie season. After a rough training camp, Gray was placed on IR with a shoulder injury and never got activated during the year. His future with the team is in question going into his third season.
2023: S Ji'Ayir Brown, 87th overall
Seasons with 49ers: 1
Starts: 5
The skinny: Brown was on track to be mainly a special teams contributor in his rookie season before Talanoa Hufanga went down with a knee injury in Week 11. He started five games before a knee injury sidelined him for the last couple weeks of the regular season. He acquitted himself well in his brief stint as a starter, and he appears to figure heavily into the team’s future in the secondary.
2023: K Jake Moody, 99th overall
Seasons with 49ers: 1
Starts: 0 (technically)
The skinny: Moody probably left a little to be desired in his first season, but he ultimately put together a pretty good rookie campaign that included three big-time kicks in the Super Bowl, all of which gave the 49ers a lead. The skill set was promising even if his first year as a pro wasn’t perfect.
2023: TE Cameron Latu, 101st overall
Seasons with 49ers: 1
Starts: 0
The skinny: Latu missed his entire rookie year with a knee injury that landed him on IR before the 53-man roster was announced.
The breakdown
So just how bad are things for the 49ers’ third-round picks?
There are a handful of ways we can measure this, but let’s just go by starts. Since 2017, 12 49ers’ third-round picks have started a combined 115 games out of a possible 174. And that’s with Warner starting all but one game since 2018. If we remove his 98 starts, it’s only 76 starts out of 174 games since 2017.
It gets even worse if we whittle it down to the last five years, where eight third-round picks have started a combined 18 games. Moody technically counts as zero starts because he’s a kicker, but even including his contributions won’t move the needle much.
There’s more to it than just starts, obviously, but it’s not great that Warner is the only player of the 12 to really have any significant impact. Even Witherspoon, Thomas and Beathard all had trouble staying in the lineup as starters.
The good news is the 49ers can find their way out of this third-round funk with players already on the roster. They’ll also have a couple third-round picks in the 2024 draft. Gray is still around with a chance to make an impact in his third year. Brown figures to be a starting safety for San Francisco in 2024, and Moody was really promising out of the gate. Latu is still a question mark, but the lightbulb appeared to be coming on for him before he injured his knee last preseason. If just two of those players (or 2024 draft picks) can become reliable starters or contributors it would do wonders for the outlook of the 49ers’ roster moving forward.
