Twin deficits spell trouble for economy

PM Anutin Charnvirakul rides a motorcycle cart to launch a campaign on providing subsidised basic public goods. With a rise in the cost of living and feared economic contraction, the Anutin government has to borrow more to fund its economic stimulus and subsidy programmes. (Photo: Chanat Katanyu)

I do not enjoy holding views that differ from those of others. It is never comfortable to be the odd one out because I have to defend my analysis vigorously and, at times, endure ridicule from my peers.

That happened in 1997 when I argued, against the prevailing consensus, that Thailand’s economy would collapse and the baht could not remain fixed at 25 to the US dollar. At the time, all research houses maintained the economy was sound, with GDP growth of around 7%. I predicted negative growth. The reason, which proved correct, was inadequate domestic liquidity caused by excessive reliance on foreign borrowing.