Facing mounting domestic tensions over Syrian refugees, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is reaching out to Syrian President Bashar Al Assad for dialogue. The initiative, reportedly supported by Moscow, is complicated by Turkey's significant military presence in Syria.
Erdogan's call for talks comes after widespread riots against Syrian refugees in Turkish cities. He aims to facilitate the return of Syrians who have fled to Turkey since the Syrian civil war began in 2011.
Soli Ozel, an international relations expert at Istanbul's Kadir Has University, says the situation is volatile.
"The country is like a tinderbox regarding refugees, especially as economic conditions deteriorate. Syrians have become easy scapegoats, and there's widespread frustration with their presence, justified or not. This has become a significant political issue," Ozel said.
He also stresses that key to any solution is a credible plan for the orderly departure of Syrian refugees to reassure the Turkish public.
Erdogan's party suffered losses in local elections in March, largely due to growing hostility towards over three million Syrian refugees in Turkey and rampant inflation approaching triple digits. These factors have intensified pressure on Erdogan to address the refugee situation.
Russia's position
Russia, under Putin, supports Erdogan's diplomatic outreach, seeing it as a potential end to Turkish backing of Syrian rebels and a conclusion to the civil war.
This aligns with Moscow's priorities, since resolving the Syrian conflict would allow Russia to redirect military resources to Ukraine.
However, Turkey's extensive military presence in Syria complicates potential talks. Turkish forces are engaged in operations against Kurdish groups, which Ankara claims are linked to domestic separatists. The Turkish military also protects Syrian rebel forces along the border.
Aydin Selcen, a former Turkish diplomat and now a foreign policy analyst with Medyascope, suggests that Ankara's willingness to negotiate could provide Syria with an opportunity to secure Turkish withdrawal.
"Assad relies heavily on external support and even internal factions" he said.
"Unable to forcibly remove Turkish troops, Assad's only option is to request their withdrawal as a precondition for talks."
Despite this, Erdogan insists on maintaining Turkey's military presence until Syria can effectively secure its borders.
Sinan Ulgen of the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies said: "Turkey's primary concern is preventing the border region from becoming a security threat post-withdrawal. Turkey needs assurances from Syria before considering troop removal."
Humanitarian crisis?
The news of Erdogan's pursuit of dialogue with Damascus sparked unrest in rebel-held northeast Syria, with protesters targeting Turkish bases out of fear of potential abandonment by Ankara.
Erdogan maintains that any agreement with Damascus would safeguard returning Syrian refugees and rebels. However, Fabrice Balanche, a regional expert from Lyon University, warns of an impending humanitarian crisis.
"If the regime regains control of rebel areas, most residents will attempt to flee to Turkey. Turkey cannot accommodate four million additional refugees," Balanche cautions.
"These people are acutely aware that remaining under regime control, even with promised amnesties, puts them at risk of targeting by security forces, conscription, or worse. There's no real protection."
Despite ongoing tensions in Turkey over the Syrian refugee presence, Erdogan is seeking Putin's assistance to soften Assad's stance on negotiations.
The Turkish leader has proposed hosting a trilateral summit this summer, though there's been no positive response so far.
The current situation highlights the complex interplay of regional politics, humanitarian concerns and diplomatic manoeuvering in addressing the Syrian conflict and its far-reaching consequences.
