Russia's decision to walk out on a deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey to allow Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea has prompted fears of soaring prices and global famine. Turkey, the gatekeeper to the waterway, has a key role to play in finding a solution.
The Turkish-flagged TQ Samsun was the last ship to carry grain from a Ukrainian Black Sea port under the deal that guaranteed safe passage to cargo ships leaving the war zone, after Moscow withdrew from the agreement earlier this week.
But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is calling for grain exports to continue through the Black Sea.
Such a move would likely need support from the Turkish navy, which is second only to Russia in the Black Sea.
"I've been a proponent of this [Turkish naval support] from the very beginning," declares Yoruk Isik, a geopolitical analyst in Istanbul with the Washington-based Middle East Institute.
"There are some difficulties. The first one will be the insurance question. But we already hear from the Ukrainian government that it set aside a serious amount of money, like half a billion euros, to provide possible insurance."
Isik also warned: "I think that Russia could do things that irritate Turkey, possibly in Syria and other places."
Russian escalation
Moscow warns that cargo ships attempting to carry Ukrainian grain will be considered hostile because they could potentially bear arms for Kyiv.
After withdrawing from the grain deal, Russian forces have already started pounding Ukrainian ports.
But it is not clear whether Moscow is ready for a confrontation with Turkey if it deploys its naval forces to protect ships carrying Ukrainian grain.
"They will try to create a hostile environment, possibly maybe dumping some sea mines," warns analyst Isik.
"But in reality, if Turkey is backing this trade [Ukrainian grain exports], I actually don't expect Russians will have either the ability or the desire to really confront the Turkish navy or the international vessels transiting on the western Black Sea," he added.
But Ankara is wary of the risks involved, given the dangers of a possible confrontation with Russian naval forces.
"The Russian naval fleet is very powerful here, they have a lot of battleships; they have more than ten submarines here," explains Mesut Casin, an international security expert at Istanbul's Yeditepe University and adviser to the Turkish president.
"This could be a big headache for Nato and for Turkey's security, and this will trigger a kind of blowup in Turkey-Russian relations," he said.
Turkey keeps the balance
If Ankara doesn't offer assistance, other Nato members may want to step in to secure the continuation of Ukrainian grain exports, which experts say is essential to prevent surging food prices and famine in some parts of the world.
But Turkey is the gatekeeper to the Black Sea under the international Montreux Convention on maritime traffic, and some analysts say it will be very reluctant to allow warships to enter the war zone.
"Those ships would make very easy targets," predicts Serhat Guvenc, a professor of international relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul, "and probably, their presence would not decrease but increase the risk of escalation between Nato and Russia."
He adds: "That's the reason why Turkey has suggested to its allies and others that they should reconsider their plans to send in warships into the Black Sea."
Since the onset of the Ukrainian conflict, Turkey has blocked access to ships from both Russia and Nato countries, other than those that have ports on the Black Sea. The stance is part of what Ankara calls its balanced approach.
"Turkey is very, very careful here not to touch the security interest of Russia as directly as the United States and other European countries do," explains Huseyin Bagci of the Ankara-based Foreign Policy Institute.
"Turkey will have a unique position in this respect. As we say, neither West nor East but the Turkish security interest, which is keeping the balance there," Bagci said.
Go-between
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claims his close ties with his Ukrainian and Russian counterparts helped him broker the UN grain deal. Erdogan says he still believes Turkish diplomacy again can find a solution to avert escalating tensions.
"The Black Sea, even though a closed and small area, is one of the most dangerous areas in the world," warns presidential advisor Casin. "Someone has to open the gate with the Kremlin; this should be Turkey."
Turkey, as the world's largest flour exporter and among the largest exporters of pasta, stands to lose if Ukrainian grain exports do not resume.
With the Turkish waterways no longer full of ships carrying Ukrainian grain, world food prices are predicted to surge – along with pressure to find a solution.
