Summary
In case you missed anything, here’s a rundown of all the latest developments from the presidential election in Turkey.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has led Turkey for 20 years, has been announced as the winner of a run-off. With 99.43% of ballot boxes opened, Erdoğan has secured 52.14% of the vote, while his opponent, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, has received 47.86%.
The run-off came after neither candidate proved able to secure more than 50% of the vote in the first round earlier this month.
Thousands of Erdoğan’s supporters have gathered on the streets of Ankara this evening to celebrate his victory.
Addressing a victory rally, Erdoğan thanked “every single one of our people who once again gave us the responsibility to govern the country five more years” and called for “unity and solidarity”.
In a brief concession statement, Kılıçdaroğlu said he felt “real sadness about the big difficulties awaiting the country”.
Rishi Sunak has phoned Erdoğan to congratulate him. A Downing Street spokesperson said the prime minister had “reiterated the strong relationship between the United Kingdom and Turkey” and that the two had “agreed to continue working closely together to address shared challenges”.
In a tweet offering his own congratulations, US President Joe Biden told Erdoğan he looked forward to “continuing to work together as Nato Allies on bilateral issues and shared global challenges”.
Other world leaders, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, have also offered their congratulations.
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Updated
Western capitals remained silent through Turkey’s presidential campaign – privately hoping Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s erratic 20-year rule would come to a surprise close – but now he has been handed a decisive mandate to serve a third term, the west is caught between fear and hope.
It fears he will exploit the result to take this Nato founder member further from the liberal secular west, but hopes against hope that, not being eligible to run again and thus freed from the need to pander to a nationalist electorate for the rest of his political life, he may at least be open to persuasion and base his foreign policy on something other than self-preservation.
Either way, the choices Erdoğan unbound makes matter not just for Turkey, Nato, and whatever order that emerges at the end of the war in Ukraine.
Read the full analysis from our diplomatic editor, Patrick Wintour, here:
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy have each offered congratulations to President Erdoğan.
In a statement released by the Kremlin, Putin called Erdoğan a “dear friend” and praised his “personal contribution to the strengthening of friendly Russian-Turkish relations”.
“The election victory was a natural result of your selfless work as the head of the Republic of Turkey, clear evidence of the support of the Turkish people for your efforts to strengthen state sovereignty and conduct an independent foreign policy,” it said.
Writing on Twitter, Zelenskiy congratulated Erdoğan and said he hoped for the “further strengthening of the strategic partnership for the benefit of our countries, as well as the strengthening of cooperation for the security and stability of Europe”.
Turkey is a member of Nato, and has been broadly supportive of Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion last year, but has sought to maintain economic and diplomatic ties with Russia. The country has also acted as a mediator in negotiations over issues like the export of grain from Ukraine’s ports on the Black Sea.
Вітаю Президента Туреччини @RTErdogan з нагоди перемоги на президентських виборах. Розраховуємо на подальше зміцнення стратегічного партнерства на благо наших країн, а також посилення взаємодії для безпеки й стабільності Європи.
— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) May 28, 2023
Updated
Erdoğan’s opponent in the election, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, has made a brief concession statement.
Kılıçdaroğlu, who secured 47.86% of the vote, said he felt “real sadness about the big difficulties awaiting the country”.
Erdoğan calls for 'unity and solidarity' in victory speech
President Erdoğan has called for “unity and solidarity” in a victory speech outside the presidential palace in Ankara.
Addressing a crowd of supporters, he said: “I thank every single one of our people who once again gave us the responsibility to govern the country five more years.
“We should come together in unity and solidarity. We call for this with all our heart.”
He pledged to focus on building stability and confidence in the Turkish economy and bringing down inflation, which according to World Bank figures stood at 72.3% in 2022.
He also said he would secure the return of one million of the 3.6 million Syrian refugees currently hosted by Turkey.
Updated
Rishi Sunak speaks with Erdoğan
Rishi Sunak has spoken with President Erdoğan to reiterate the “strong relationship” between the UK and Turkey as “economic partners and close Nato allies”, Downing Street has said.
“Prime Minister Rishi Sunak spoke to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan this evening to congratulate him on his re-election,” a spokeswoman said.
“The prime minister reiterated the strong relationship between the United Kingdom and Turkey, as economic partners and close Nato allies.
“He reflected on Turkey’s ongoing recovery from the devastating earthquakes earlier this year and pledged the UK’s continued solidarity with the Turkish people.
“The leaders agreed to continue working closely together to address shared challenges.”
Updated
President Biden has joined leaders from around the world in sending congratulations to Erdoğan on his re-election.
In a tweet, he said he looked forward to “continuing to work together as Nato Allies on bilateral issues and shared global challenges”.
Congratulations to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Türkiye on his re-election.
— President Biden (@POTUS) May 28, 2023
I look forward to continuing to work together as NATO Allies on bilateral issues and shared global challenges.
With an initial count confirmed by the country’s supreme election authority, which announced a victory for Erdoğan, we are already starting to see the beginning of what another term for Turkey’s longest-serving leader might look like.
The Turkish lira, already in crisis, slipped below 20 to the dollar as the votes were counted this evening, in a sign of further crisis to come. Economists from Bloomberg previously estimated that the Turkish central bank has spent more than $177bn supporting the lira since December 2021.
While the opposition were defeated in the second round vote, the conditions challenging Erdoğan’s control and prompting one of the most concerted challenges to his rule in decades appear set to remain.
Turkey remains a fiercely polarised country, where the opposition secured just under 48% of the vote. Erdoğan also appears happy to stoke culture war forces to shore up support from his base, once again inviting his supporters to brand every opposition party as “LGBT” in a call and response during his victory speech atop a car in Istanbul.
A victorious Erdoğan also received congratulations from many international leaders whom he was previously happy to spar with in order to project power at home, notably the Egyptian president, Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, and the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen.
The Swedish prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, also congratulated Erdoğan, telling him “our common security is the future priority”, a clear reference to his country’s bid for Nato accession, which has been held up by the Turkish president for over a year.
Those congratulations will no doubt be well received by Erdoğan, who is likely to view them as an endorsement that his often combative and bombastic methods on the international stage have brought results in his favour at home and abroad.
Updated
The UK prime minister, Rishi Sunak, has sent his congratulations to Erdoğan on his victory.
In a tweet, he said he looked forward to continuing collaborations on issues including trade and shared security threats.
Congratulations to @RTErdogan. I look forward to continuing the strong collaboration between our countries, from growing trade to tackling security threats as NATO allies.
— Rishi Sunak (@RishiSunak) May 28, 2023
Updated
Summary
It is slightly past midnight in Turkey where incumbent president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been declared the winner of the presidency. Here is where things stand:
The chairman of Turkey’s supreme election council, Ahmet Yener, announced that incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has won Turkey’s presidency in a runoff election with 52.14% of the votes, Reuters reports. With 99.43% of ballot boxes opened, Erdoğan’s rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu received 47.86% of the votes, Yener said. The two candidates have a gap of over 2 million votes and the remainder of the uncounted votes will not affect the result, said Yener.
Speaking to supporters on top of a bus on Sunday evening, the incumbent president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, thanked voters for giving him the responsibility to rule for an additional five years. Erdoğan, who has ruled the country for two decades, thanked Turks for voting and declared Turkey as the only winner in the runoff presidential election. “We have completed the second round of the presidential elections with the favour of our people,” Erdoğan said.
Turkey’s opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu vowed to continue to lead his struggle following early results that showed him trailing behind and losing to incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in what he called was the “the most unfair election in years”. Kılıçdaroğlu, who received around 47.9% of votes in the country’s runoff election, said the results showed people’s will to change an authoritarian government. He is saddened by the “troubles” awaiting Turkey, he added, according to Reuters.
Somalia’s president has also congratulated Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The two countries developed close ties after Erdoğan became the first head of state outside Africa to visit the country in almost two decades in 2011. The bilateral relationship between the countries initially started out with humanitarian support but has developed a military component where the Turkish army trains Somali soldiers in their fight against the al-Qaida-affiliated al-Shabaab, as well as a burgeoning trade relationship and state-building support.
The Qatari emir, Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, and the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, have congratulated Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Al-Thani tweeted: “My dear brother Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, congratulations on your victory, and I wish you success in your new term, and that you achieve in it what the brotherly Turkish people aspire to in terms of progress and prosperity, and for the strong relations of our two countries to further development and growth.” Orbán echoed the sentiments, writing: “Congratulations to President @RTErdogan on his unquestionable election victory!”
It has not been lost on analysts in Greece that President Erdoğan will begin his new five-year stint in power exactly 100 years after the establishment of the Republic of Turkey. “He will lead his country for the next five years and he begins his new term precisely in the year that he wanted, that is a century after the creation of the Republic of Turkey,” noted Giorgos Tsogopoulos, a senior fellow at the Athens-based think tank Eliamep.
Meral Akşener, leader of the opposition alliance member IYI Party, congratulated Erdoğan at a press conference she held in Ankara. “I hope that our nation’s decision will benefit our country” Akşener said. Due to disagreements over Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s candidacy, Akşener had quit the opposition alliance. She later rejoined after securing concessions over her preferred candidates both running as vice presidential candidates.
Updated
It has not been lost on analysts in Greece that President Erdoğan will begin his new five-year stint in power exactly 100 years after the establishment of the Republic of Turkey.
“He will lead his country for the next five years and he begins his new term precisely in the year that he wanted, that is a century after the creation of the Republic of Turkey,” noted Giorgos Tsogopoulos, a senior fellow at the Athens-based think tank Eliamep.
“His political success is undisputed. Not only has he not lost the elections, he has endured even when his political opponents rally to dethrone him,” he added.
Greece’s political leadership has yet to congratulate the newly elected Erdogan. Following its own inconclusive general election on May 21, Turkey’s neighbour and historic Nato rival has a caretaker government. Led by a senior judge, Ioannis Sarmas, the interim administration will lead the country to repeat polls on June 25.
Former prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, whose centre right New Democracy party triumphed in the election but failed under a system of proportional representation to win a parliamentary majority, has said he will extend a “hand of friendship” towards Turkey if he is voted back into office.
“But I’m not naive. I know that foreign policies of countries don’t change from one day to the next,” he told AP in an interview ahead of the 21 May vote.
“I would hope that the next Turkish government would overall reconsider its approach towards the West, not just towards Greece, towards Europe, towards Nato, and towards the United States. But again I have to be a realist and not be too naive, and that is why we will continue with … our firm foreign policy. That means we will continue to strengthen our deterrence capabilities and our defense capabilities.”
Updated
Meral Akşener, leader of the opposition alliance member IYI Party, congratulated Erdoğan at a press conference she held in Ankara. “I hope that our nation’s decision will benefit our country” Akşener said.
Due to disagreements over Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s candidacy, Akşener had quit the opposition alliance. She later rejoined after securing concessions over her preferred candidates both running as vice presidential candidates.
“We did not allow any power, ambition, or personal greed to stand in the way of our nation’s demands and wishes. For this reason, we have received harsh criticism from time to time and paid the price for this,” Akşener said.
More world leaders have congratulated Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, with French president Emmanuel Macron and Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan hailing further cooperation between their countries and Turkey.
“There are great challenges that France and Turkey will overcome together. The return of peace to Europe, the future of our Eurasian Alliance, the Mediterranean sea. We will continue to move forward together with President Erdoğan, to whom I convey my congratulations on his re-election,” wrote Macron.
Fransa ve Türkiye’nin birlikte üstesinden geleceği büyük sınamalar var. Avrupa’ya barışın geri gelmesi, Avrakdeniz İttifakımızın geleceği, Akdeniz denizi. Yeniden seçilmesi dolayısıyla tebriklerimi ilettiğim Başkan Erdoğan ile birlikte, ilerlemeye devam edeceğiz.
— Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) May 28, 2023
Meanwhile, Pashinyan wrote:
“Congratulations to President @RTErdogan on his re-election. Looking forward to continuing working together towards full normalisation of relations between our countries.”
Currently, Turkey and Armenia have almost no diplomatic relations as a result of a tumultuous history between the two countries including Armenian genocide and the ethnic and territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Updated
Opposition presidential candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s gave a speech intended to console his supporters from the Ankara headquarters of his Republican People’s Party (CHP).
“In this election, the will of the people to change an authoritarian government has clearly emerged, despite all the pressures. We have experienced the most unfair election process of recent years...despite this climate of fear, I would like to thank all the leaders of our alliance and our citizens. The Republican People’s Party and the Nation’s Alliance will continue to struggle with all of their members. We will continue to be the pioneer in this struggle, until real democracy comes to our country. My biggest sadness is the trouble waiting for this country,” he said.
The 74-year-old longtime CHP leader also gave few suggestions that he might step down following his defeat, despite his candidacy previously causing a rift among his opposition alliance amid allegations that other opposition figures stood a better chance of beating Erdoğan.
“I want to see our 25 million citizens who have voted for me standing tall and proud, our march continues and we remain here,” he added. “I have always fought for your rights, for the law, so that no one can oppress you...So that you can live in peace and plenty, and I will continue to do so.”
Former prime minister of Turkey Ahmet Davutoğlu, who also served as President Erdoğan’s foreign minister, hailed the election results which has so far shown Erdogan significantly ahead of his rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
In a tweet on Sunday, Davutoğlu wrote:
“I wish the election results to be good for our country and our nation. I congratulate our citizens who showed high participation in the elections with great democratic maturity.”
He went on to add, “After the final results are announced by the YSK, I will share the comprehensive assessment with the public,” referring to the country’s supreme election council.
Seçim sonuçlarının ülkemize, milletimize hayırlı uğurlu olmasını diliyorum. Büyük bir demokratik olgunlukla seçime yüksek katılım gösteren vatandaşlarımızı tebrik ediyorum.
— Ahmet Davutoğlu (@Ahmet_Davutoglu) May 28, 2023
YSK tarafından kesin sonuçlar açıklandıktan sonra, kapsamlı değerlendirmeyi kamuoyu ile paylaşacağım.
Updated
Jailed opposition leader Selahattin Demirtaş has released his first statement on the Turkish polls. In a string of tweets he congratulated his supporters for managing to get as many votes as they did despite the fact that they were up against “a huge operational force that has taken over the state.” Demirtaş wrote that the election was “full of inequalities, oppression, incredible lies, slander and smears.”
He added: “Even reaching this rate of votes with a principled and moral election campaign against a huge operational force that has taken over the state is considered a miracle.” Signing off, he urged his supporters to “Keep fighting”.
Demirtaş was co-chair of the pro-Kurdish HDP party. He was jailed on terror charges in 2016 due to alleged links between his party and the PKK, a Kurdish militant group considered a terrorist organisation in Ankara and the EU. Demirtaş says arrest was politically motivated. In 2020, the grand chamber of the European court of human rights also ruled that Turkey’s detention of Demirtaş was politically motivated.
Yenilmedik. Yenilmediğimiz için de sakın kimse umutsuz olmasın.
— Selahattin Demirtaş (@hdpdemirtas) May 28, 2023
Asla teslim olmak yok.
Mücadeleye devam, devam, devam...
3/3
Updated
Turkey's supreme election council chairman: Erdoğan officially wins Turkey's presidency
The chairman of Turkey’s supreme election council, Ahmet Yener, announced that incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has won Turkey’s presidency in a runoff election with 52.14% of the votes, Reuters reports.
With 99.43% of ballot boxes opened, Erdoğan’s rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu received 47.86% of the votes, Yener said. The two candidates have a gap of over 2 million votes and the remainder of the uncounted votes will not affect the result, said Yener.
Drone footage from Istanbul shows supporters celebrating Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's victory in runoff elections pic.twitter.com/nswciNfY62
— ANADOLU AGENCY (@anadoluagency) May 28, 2023
Updated
Opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu vows to continue struggle
Turkey’s opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu vowed to continue to lead his struggle following early results that showed him trailing behind and losing to incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in what he called was the “the most unfair election in years”.
Kılıçdaroğlu, who received around 47.9% of votes in the country’s runoff election, said the results showed people’s will to change an authoritarian government. He is saddened by the “troubles” awaiting Turkey, he added, according to Reuters.
“I ask my 25 million voters. Stand up, and walk proudly” he continued.
“I did everything I could to make sure you could live in a fair nation and I will continue to lead that fight,” he added.
Kilicdaroglu isn’t resigning after the election defeat, says he will continue his path.
— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) May 28, 2023
“I ask my 25 million voters. Stand up, and walk proudly” he says.
He added that Turkish voters showed real willingness to change an autocratic government
pic.twitter.com/YTfDs6uJc7
Updated
Kosovo’s president has also congratulated Erdoğan
We extend our heartfelt congratulations to President @RTErdogan on today’s victory.
— Vjosa Osmani (@VjosaOsmaniPRKS) May 28, 2023
As you continue to lead Türkiye towards new successes, I look forward to working together to build on our excellent cooperation.
🇽🇰 ve 🇹🇷 arasındaki ortaklık güçlenerek devam etsin! pic.twitter.com/0xAHIabNHZ
The Turkish text reads: “May the partnership between us continue to get stronger!”
Following Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s victory speech, Sinan Oğan, who came third in the first election round, tweeted on Sunday that the “presidential election process has been completed” and went on to declare “Turkish nationalists, Kemalists, the Turkish nation” as winners.
“The presidential election process has been completed. According to this result, our voters, who did not spare their support in the first round, continued to support us in the second round and voted for the stability of Turkey.
“Our voters abandoned the enthusiasm of those who said that these votes were not given to Sinan Oğan, they trusted us and to a great extent chose where we are.
“From here, I would like to express my gratitude to all my citizens who have remained loyal to the plan. Now a new era begins.
“The winners were Turkish nationalists, Kemalists, the Turkish nation and the Turkish world, the losers were the lynching culture and the terror-affiliated parties and those who trusted them.”
Cumhurbaşkanlığı seçim süreci tamamlanmıştır. Bu sonuca göre ilk turda bizden desteğini esirgemeyen seçmenimiz ikinci turda da önemli ölçüde desteğini devam ettirmiş ve Türkiye’nin istikrarı yönünde oyunu kullamıştır. Seçmenimiz bu oylar Sinan Oğan’a verilmedi diyenlerin…
— Dr. Sinan Oğan (@DrSinanOgan) May 28, 2023
Updated
Opposition areas see voter turnout drop
Voter turnout was lower in this election overall but the stats show that turnout dropped quite heavily in big cities where Kılıçdaroğlu would have hoped to have stronger support, and in the south-eastern Kurdish-populated regions. Provinces won by Erdoğan didn’t see such a dramatic drop.
Here are some figures through Anadolu:
Istanbul:
Round 1: 90.5%
Round 2: 87.2%
Izmir:
Round 1: 90.2%
Round 2: 87.19%
Ankara:
Round 1: 91.2%
Round 2: 87.9%
In the Kurdish region, where numbers for voter turnout are generally lower than other parts of the country, there was also a notable decrease.
Speculation was rife about whether Kılıçdaroğlu would be able to retain the Kurdish vote if he courted the nationalist voters by working with far-right politician Ümit Özdağ.
After the first round, Sinan Oğan, who finished third, endorsed Erdoğan. Oğan led the ATA alliance, which consisted of a small group of marginal far-right parties, including Ümit Özdağ’s Victory party. Kılıçdaroğlu attempted to flank himself from the right and tap into some of those votes but that strategy appears to have caused voter apathy in the south-east.
Speaking to Reuters, Reha Ruhavioglu, director of the Diyarbakir-based Kurdish Studies Center, said Kurdish voters lost interest in the opposition alliance as Kılıçdaroğlu drifted right.
Demotivation stems from the CHP’s political discourse, which shifted from reconciliation to security politics.
Here are some numbers:
Diyarbakir:
Round 1: 81.7%
Round 2: 75.9%
Ağrı:
Round 1: 72.8%
Round 2: 65.8%
Mardin:
Round 1: 82.7%
Round 2: 78.7%
Van:
Round 1: 78.6%
Round 2: 72.2%
Siirt:
Round 1: 83.3%
Round 2: 78.6%
Updated
Erdoğan thanks voters for opportunity to 'govern Turkey for the next five years'
Speaking to supporters on top of a bus on Sunday evening, the incumbent president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, thanked voters for giving him the responsibility to rule for an additional five years.
Erdoğan, who has ruled the country for two decades, thanked Turks for voting and declared Turkey as the only winner in the runoff presidential election.
According to data from the majority of ballot boxes that have been counted, Erdogan is leading with roughly 52% support. Official results have yet to be released.
“We have completed the second round of the presidential elections with the favour of our people,” Erdoğan said.
He went on to thank voters, saying that “each and every member of the nation … once again conveyed to us responsibility for governing Turkey for the next five years”.
“We will be ruling the country for the coming five years … God willing, we will be deserving of your trust,” he added.
Updated
Somalia’s president has also congratulated Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The two countries developed close ties after Erdoğan became the first head of state outside Africa to visit the country in almost two decades in 2011.
The bilateral relationship between the countries initially started out with humanitarian support but has developed a military component where the Turkish army trains Somali soldiers in their fight against the al-Qaida-affiliated al-Shabaab, as well as a burgeoning trade relationship and state-building support.
Last year, Erdoğan announced that Turkey-Somalia trade reached $363m in 2021, a significant increase from $2m in 2003. Moreover, Turkey’s largest embassy building in the world is located in Mogadishu, a further sign of the two countries’ close ties.
Earlier this month, Somalia’s defence minister hailed Turkey as an “irreplaceable partner” for Somalia, citing Turkey’s sprawling state-rebuilding investments in the country.
Congratulations to our friend and brother Türkiye!
Tebrikler dost ve kardeş Türkiye! @RTErdogan pic.twitter.com/sAQE2P5JRZ
— Villa Somalia (@TheVillaSomalia) May 28, 2023
Updated
Erdoğan in lead with 75% of votes counted
Turkey’s supreme election council (YSK) has announced that 75.42% votes have been counted, with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan receiving 53.41% of votes and his opponent, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, receiving 46.59%.
Updated
The Qatari emir, Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, and the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, have congratulated Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Al-Thani tweeted: “My dear brother Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, congratulations on your victory, and I wish you success in your new term, and that you achieve in it what the brotherly Turkish people aspire to in terms of progress and prosperity, and for the strong relations of our two countries to further development and growth.”
أخي العزيز رجب طيب أردوغان مبارك لكم الفوز، وأتمنى لك التوفيق في ولايتك الجديدة، وأن تحقق فيها ما يطمح له الشعب التركي الشقيق من تقدم ورخاء، ولعلاقات بلدينا القوية مزيداً من التطور والنماء.
— تميم بن حمد (@TamimBinHamad) May 28, 2023
Orbán echoed the sentiments, writing: “Congratulations to President @RTErdogan on his unquestionable election victory!” adding: “Tebrikler, Sayın Cumhurbaşkanı!”, meaning: “Congratulations, Mr President” in Turkish.
Congratulations to President @RTErdogan on his unquestionable election victory! Tebrikler, Sayın Cumhurbaşkanı! pic.twitter.com/I1IR7g3EWe
— Orbán Viktor (@PM_ViktorOrban) May 28, 2023
Updated
Losing Turkey’s major cities hasn’t proved much of a setback for Erdoğan
More than 90% of ballot boxes are now opened, according to state news agency Anadolu, so we’ve got a bit of an idea of which candidate won votes and in which regions. The voting patterns in the second round look very similar to the first round.
Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has performed strongly again in Turkish Thrace, and leads in all provinces along the Mediterranean coast, including the major city of Izmir. These are all regions where his party has traditionally had a strong presence. Kılıçdaroğlu also appears to have won a greater share of the vote in Turkey’s largest city, Istanbul, and the capital, Ankara, suggesting he’s the more popular candidate in Turkey’s three largest cities. The old maxim “he who rules Istanbul rules Turkey” no longer appears to hold though, as he falls behind Erdoğan in the final straight.
In Turkey’s fourth and fifth largest cities, Bursa and Konya respectively, which are AKP strongholds, Erdoğan is expectedly leading.
The south-east of the country has also produced interesting final results. Our colleagues Ruth Michaelson and Deniz Barış Narlı headed to areas impacted by the earthquake where they reported strong support for Erdoğan despite the government’s lacklustre initial response to the disaster. With the exception of Diyabakir, where Kılıçdaroğlu is leading, Erdoğan has retained support across much of the region. He also appears to have expanded his support. Results so far suggest that Hatay, one of the worst-hit regions, has swung to Erdoğan and away from Kılıçdaroğlu, who won the province in the first round by an extremely narrow margin.
Farther east, in the Kurdish populated region, Kılıçdaroğlu’s informal alliance with the pro-Kurdish Yeşil Sol party appears to have held up despite his alliance with the controversial far-right nationalist politician Ümit Özdağ for the second round. From the north-eastern region of Ardahan, which borders Georgia, down as far as Mardin, which borders Syria, Kılıçdaroğlu has a strong lead. These are all regions where the Yeşil Sol party dominated in the parliamentary elections.
Throughout central Anatolia, however, Erdoğan has an overwhelming lead, where Kılıçdaroğlu’s tally has been much lower.
Updated
According to Ahmet Yener, the chairman of the YSK, the country’s supreme election council, 54% of the ballots have been counted, with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan receiving 54.57% of the votes, and his rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu on 45.53%.
Updated
Ömer Çelik, the spokesperson for Erdoğan’s Justice and Development party, has hit back at statements from the Republican People’s party (CHP) spokesperson. We are lurching towards another war of narratives around the vote count, with both sides alleging that the other is presenting inaccurate data.
“Now they are trying to present their own data as the data of the whole of Turkey. They are trying to present this other data to muddy the waters,” Çelik said, in reference to statements from CHP spokesperson Faik Öztrak, who claimed that Erdoğan and his rival were neck and neck.
“Here’s what he needs to know: the only statement that muddied the waters in this whole process came from two mayors on the night of 14 May. They acted in an extremely irresponsible manner,” Çelik said, in reference to public statements given by the Ankara and Istanbul mayors on the night of the first round, where they claimed that the opposition was in the lead.
“We have a political tradition that would respect the results until the final vote is counted. We will wait respectfully until the final vote is counted and the result will emerge,” he said.
Çelik added: “We will wait for the last vote to be counted.”
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The statement from the opposition Republican People’s party (CHP) came a little ahead of schedule, with spokesperson Faik Öztrak once again telling opposition supporters to continue observing the count at the ballot boxes.
“According to our results, there is a head-to-head race. Keep doing your duty until this process is finished,” he said.
In a salvo at Erdoğan’s decision to give a victorious speech to his supporters from the balcony of his Justice and Development party (AKP) headquarters in Ankara, Öztrak added:
“No one should try to muddy the waters with balcony speeches. Our nation continues to receive information from us moment by moment. It looks like we have got one vote from every two voters in Turkey.”
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Initial vote counts are coming in thick and fast from both the state news agency Anadolu and opposition-leaning ANKA.
Anadolu said that Erdoğan currently has 55% of the vote, compared with Kılıçdaroğlu on 44%, with 61% of “ballot boxes opened”, a somewhat mysterious turn of phrase that doesn’t necessarily translate as votes counted.
ANKA on the other hand has 50.99% to Kılıçdaroğlu and 49.01% to Erdoğan, with 59% of “ballot boxes opened”.
During the first round, both ANKA and Anadolu gave differing counts until late in the evening, leading to conflicting narratives about whether Erdoğan or the opposition were in the lead, fuelled in part by statements from leading opposition officials. Kılıçdaroğlu and several leading officials also lashed out at Anadolu, but did not provide data to evidence their claims of a lead.
The CHP have said they will speak at 19.00 local time here in Turkey, although we have already seen that CHP party spokesperson Faik Öztrak has already repeated some of the same claims about Anadolu.
“We’ve seen in the past how the results were manipulated by state-owned Anadolu Agency. That’s why you shouldn’t leave the ballot boxes,” he told opposition supporters.
The head of Turkey’s electoral authority, Ahmet Yener, has just announced that only 25% of the votes have been entered into their system for the official count.
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Voter turnout drops to 84% in the second round
Turkey’s election board has now lifted the broadcast ban on results from the elections. Early numbers have begun pouring in and just over half the ballots have been opened. One thing to note so far is that turnout has dropped in the second round compared with the first round. In the first round, turnout was over 88%, according to Turkey’s Anadolu Agency, but this round has seen a slight drop to 84.2%, which is still remarkably high.
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It is also important to keep in mind that these elections were also for Turkey’s 600-seat parliament, the shape of which is now clear. That will be the most important statistic for whoever comes out of this election on top, especially for opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, whose party is the second largest in Turkey’s parliament.
The AKP-led People’s Alliance – which includes the nationalist MHP – retained the largest number of deputies, even though their block shrank compared with 2018’s election. They command 323 seats. Trailing them by just over a hundred deputies is the CHP-led Nation Alliance, which includes another nationalist party – the Iyi party, which has 212 parliamentarians in their block. The leftwing Labour and Freedom Alliance, which includes the pro-Kurdish Yeşil Sol party (a successor to the HDP) and the Turkish Workers party, got just over 10% and have 65 deputies.
Despite the fact that Turkey switched to an executive presidential system after a 2017 referendum, the country’s parliament retains extensive powers, from the ratification of treaties to the passing of budgets and, crucially, the ability to amend the constitution. One of Kılıçdaroğlu’s key campaign pledges was to revert Turkey to a parliamentary democracy – which he will struggle to see through without a parliamentary majority.
Although Erdoğan would not face significant obstacles as he can count on MPs from his alliance to approve legislation, Kılıçdaroğlu would have a bit of a tricky wicket with a hostile parliament. Even if he relied on the Labour and Freedom Alliance deputies, he would still lack the necessary majorities to enact law.
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Merve Dizdar, who won the best actress award yesterday at the 76th Cannes film festival for her teacher role in Nuri Bilge Ceylan’s About Dry Grasses, returned to Istanbul to vote today. In footage on social media, Dizdar was applauded at the school where she went to vote.
Dizdar’s award speech went viral on social media in Turkey after she dedicated her award to “all her sisters who take action to strengthen the struggle of women” and “all fighting spirits waiting to see the good days they deserve in Turkey”.
76. Cannes Film Festivali'nde 'En İyi Kadın Oyuncu Ödülü'nü alan #MerveDizdar oy kullanacağı okulda alkışlarla karşılandı
— İleri Haber (@ilerihaber) May 28, 2023
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The mood at the polls today wasn’t quite the busy and energetic atmosphere we witnessed a couple of weeks ago during the first round, in part because today’s vote doesn’t require the electorate to fill out long ballot sheets for the parliamentary election, and maybe a little of Istanbul’s gloomy weather.
“Hopefully he’ll actually go this time,” said voter and election observer Ilhan Pekgöz, in reference to president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
After a bruising first round for Erdoğan’s rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, whose coalition failed to win a predicted majority in parliament and who trailed the incumbent president by around five percentage points heading into the second round, few opposition supporters were feeling confident of an opposition victory.
But what stuck out most among those at the polls today was a combination of wanting to vote anyway to show their objections to Erdoğan’s policies, particularly on the economy, as well as a lingering resentment about the ballot and the fairness of the count.
The first round saw the opposition initially claim victory before accepting the results, as well as a storm of concerns about irregularities in the count that Kılıçdaroğlu’s Republican People’s Party (CHP) later said they contested.
Days later, CHP officials clarified that although they disputed the vote-count in 2,269 ballot boxes, these would not have changed the overall result.
Observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe also said the first round was “well-managed and offered voters a choice between genuine political alternatives, but the current president and the ruling parties enjoyed an unjustified advantage.”
Despite the fairness of the vote itself, opposition supporters have often expressed discomfort with the feeling that the election has not been held in a fair context, where Erdoğan has received disproportionately more coverage in the domestic media compared to his rival and the head of a major Kurdish political party remains in prison.
“Nobody believes the first round was fair. If our votes don’t get stolen, there’s a high chance we could win,” said Pekgöz.
Polls close
Polls are just about to close here, at 17.00 local time. The announcement of the unofficial final results of the last election was delayed until the next day. This time, it is estimated that the count will end sooner, as there are only two candidates.
Turnout is expected to be decisive in the second round while both candidates repeatedly asked their followers to go voting during the runoff campaign period. In Turkey, the election turnout has been generally high in the past, reaching 88,92 percent in the first round.
Candidates especially aim to convince around 8 million voters who did not go to the polls in the previous round.
Opposition presidential candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu tweeted two hours before the polls closed:
“My brothers and sisters who haven’t voted yet, go to the ballot box, don’t be lazy, vote! Your future is as close as walking distance.”
Hala oy kullanmamış kardeşim, sandığa git, üşenme, oyunu kullan. Geleceğin yürüyüş mesafesi kadar yakın...
— Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu (@kilicdarogluk) May 28, 2023
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Turkish opposition has been stirring up anti-immigrant sentiments in attempt to win the presidency, the Guardian’s Ruth Michaelson and Deniz Barış Narlı report.
On the dock next to Istanbul’s Kadiköy ferry port, a large screen displays the opposition’s campaign videos on a loop, with presidential candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s voice booming out through the speakers. Interspersed with soft rock soundtracking footage of the campaign trail are speeches in which he promises to deport the roughly 4 million refugees currently in Turkey.
“You brought more than 10 million refugees in,” he shouts, addressing President Erdoğan, over footage of young people climbing through barbed wire and through dusty tracks next to grassland. “I hereby declare that I will send all refugees back as soon as I come to power.”
Campaigners from Kılıçdaroğlu’s Republican People’s party (CHP) hand out Turkish flags and leaflets bearing his campaign promises, including a flyer bearing the words “refugees will return home”, showing a figure scaling a wire fence at sunset.
CHP voter Çisel Onat tapped her foot to the music as she watched. “We have to do this, unfortunately,” she said of the promises to expel refugees. “I’m the kind of person who thinks everyone should just live in their own country in suitable conditions.”
While Kılıçdaroğlu and his party have described themselves as democratic challengers to Erdoğan, their campaign before the second-round poll has focused on an anti-immigrant message in an attempt to attract votes.
For more, click here:
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A video of a woman taking her lamb to a polling station in Turkey has gone viral.
In the video, the lamb, clad in a a striped sweater, can be seen following the woman into the station, much to the amusement of onlookers. The woman is then seen handing in her ballot before she and the lamb head back out onto the streets.
İstanbul'da bir vatandaş oy kullanmaya kuzusu ile birlikte gittihttps://t.co/x9YmfzzBz4 pic.twitter.com/HE43DsPKzV
— Halk TV (@halktvcomtr) May 28, 2023
Reuters has this report from Ankara, as voting continues:
Voting started at 8am (5am GMT) and will finish at 5pm (2pm GMT). The outcome is expected to start becoming clear by early evening local time. Polling stations were reportedly quieter in many places than two weeks ago, when turnout was 89%.
The election will decide not only who leads Turkey, a Nato-member country of 85 million people, but also how it is governed, where its economy is headed after its currency plunged to one-tenth of its value against the dollar in a decade, and the shape of its foreign policy, which has seen Turkey anger the west by cultivating ties with Russia and Gulf states.
Erdogan supporters gathered at a school near his home on the Asian side of Istanbul where he voted at about midday, before shaking hands and talking with the crowd.
“With God’s permission, he will win. The country has many problems but if anyone can solve them, he can,” said Nuran, who came to vote with her three-year-old daughter.
In Ankara, 32-year-old Gulcan Demiroz said she hoped the vote would bring change and that her friends would otherwise go abroad, as she was considering doing, for a better life.
“This country deserves better. We need a collective of minds, not a powerful, cold, distant man who rules single handedly,” said Gulcan, who works in the textile industry, after voting for Kılıçdaroğlu.
Kılıçdaroğlu, 74, voted in Ankara. He is the candidate of a six-party opposition alliance, and leads the Republican People’s party (CHP) created by Turkey’s founder, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. His camp has struggled to regain momentum after trailing Erdoğan in the first round.
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The incumbent president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, was pictured handing out money – banknotes worth 200 lira (£8) – at the polling station where he cast his ballot today.
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Why is there a second vote?
Archie Bland and Ruth Michaelson explain why voters have returned to the polls just two weeks after the previous election.
What happened in the first vote?
Parliamentary and presidential elections took place in Turkey on Sunday. In the 600-seat parliament, Erdoğan’s Justice and Development party (AKP) and its allies secured by far the most seats, 321, while the opposition won 213, and the 66 remaining seats went to a pro-Kurdish alliance.
In the presidential vote, Turkey’s supreme election council had Erdoğan at 49.51% and Kılıçdaroğlu at 44.88%. A third candidate, the ultranationalist Sinan Oğan, took a vital 5.17% that appears to have kept both Kılıçdaroğlu or Erdoğan from getting over the 50% line.
Why was it close?
While Erdoğan’s grip on the levers of power has brought Turkey close to autocracy, he has made serious economic missteps recently. He has increased his control of the theoretically independent central bank and steadfastly refused to increase interest rates despite inflation that officially touched 80% last year and which independent analysts say could, in reality, have surpassed 100%. Turkish people are far poorer and more uncertain of their futures as a result.
The government response to the devastating recent earthquake was widely viewed as inadequate. In February, Erdoğan made the tone-deaf comment that “whatever happens, happens, this is part of fate’s plan”.
However, he has outperformed expectations and appears to be further ahead than was previously predicted.
How will the runoff go?
Erdoğan clearly has the advantage. But the question of which side is able to successfully spin a story about its own success – and thereby either create a sense of momentum for the opposition or stymie it – will be central. The fight over the interpretation of the vote is really a symbol of how divided the country is. It is a question of whether Kılıçdaroğlu can plausibly say: “Just a little further. We can do this.”
One question is where the votes for the ultranationalist third-place candidate, Oğan, will go. Voting for him was seen as a protest vote. It is possible his voters will be accepting of Kılıçdaroğlu because there are nationalists in his coalition.
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Voters go to the polls again in Turkey
The second round of voting in the Turkish presidential election is under way, as my colleagues Ruth Michaelson and Deniz Barış Narlı report from Istanbul:
Turkish voters are heading back to the polls for an unprecedented second round of a presidential election in which Recep Tayyip Erdoğan hopes to see off a faltering challenge from rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
In the first round earlier this month, Erdoğan upended expectations and many pollsters’ predictions by coming out ahead with 49.5% of the vote, forcing his rival into second place with 44.5%. A further upset occurred in the parliamentary vote, where Erdoğan’s coalition won a comfortable majority.
Kılıçdaroğlu has offered voters a chance to end Erdoğan’s two decades in power and to prevent Turkey’s longest-serving leader from extending his rule into a third decade.
Both candidates have sought to harness support from voters who opted for the third-place presidential candidate, the ultranationalist Sinan Oğan of the Victory party, who obtained roughly 5% of the presidential vote in the first round.
We will be covering all the developments in the live blog ahead of polls closing at 5pm in Turkey (3pm BST, 10am EDT) and an expected result at around midnight local time.
