Turkey's deployment of an energy research ship accompanied by a naval escort to Somalia is the latest step in deepening bilateral ties. However, rising Ethiopian-Somali tensions threaten Turkey's substantial investments in Somalia, as Ankara's mediation efforts stall.
With a great deal of fanfare, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attended the leaving ceremony of Turkey's energy research vessel Oruc Reis, which set sail this month to Somalia accompanied by two Turkish naval vessels.
Somali energy deal
The deployment of the Oruc Reis is part of an energy deal struck with Somalia and the latest step in Ankara's long-term investment in the Horn of Africa nation.
"Turkey has its largest embassy in the world in Mogadishu. It has a military base there. The port of Mogadishu is controlled by a Turkish company, "explained Norman Rickelfs, a geopolitical consultant.
"[Turkey] signed a defense deal (with Somalia) in February, a two-part defense deal, and then an energy exploration deal in March. So, Turkey needs Somalia and Ethiopia to play well together."
The threat of a new conflict in the Horn of Africa has been looming since January when Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, a breakaway state from Somalia.
The agreement gives Ethiopia secure sea access in exchange for recognizing the breakaway state, a deal condemned by Somalia for infringing on its territorial integrity.
Turkey enters fray mediating Ethiopia and Somalia's high-stakes dispute
Somalia, Ethiopia and Turkey
Ankara which has good relations with Ethiopia, as well as Somalia has been mediating. But September's round of talks, during which Ankara had indicated an agreement could be reached, has been indefinitely postponed.
The postponement follows Egypt signing a defense pact with Somalia in August. Last month, Egypt sent its first shipment of arms to Somalia in four decades.
Elem Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu, an African studies professor at the Social Sciences University of Ankara, warns that Egypt’s military involvement complicates Ethiopian Somali reconciliation efforts.
"There are also some hurdles on the way with some recent tensions, especially with the involvement of Egypt and its increasing relations with Somalia," claims Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu.
Tepeciklioglu warns that the longer the Ethiopian-Somalia dispute continues, the greater the risk of contagion in an unstable region.
"The shifting alliances in the region are also a source of problem, because most of the regional countries have strained relations with each other. And then they often have conflicting interests. So this might complicate the situation," explained Tepeciklioglu.
Egypt's support of Somalia is the latest chapter in Egyptian-Ethiopian tensions. Those tensions center on Ethiopia's damming of the Nile River, which Egypt depends on.
Cairo's position
Cairo has strongly criticized the project, warning it poses an existential threat. "Egypt's military deployment to Somalia is a natural progression for an actor seeking to strengthen their hand in a regional competition," said Kaan Devecioglu of the Ankara-based think tank Orsam.
However, Devecioglu says the priority must be to prevent current rivalries from overspilling into confrontation. "Egypt already has this strained relationship with Ethiopia due to tensions over the Nile River, which makes its presence in Somalia geopolitically sensitive. The issue is not that states are rivals but ensuring they are not enemies,' explained Devecioglu.
Egyptian President Al Fateh Sisi discussed Ethiopian Somali tensions during last month's Ankara visit. The visit is part of rapprochement efforts between the countries. That rapprochement Ankara is likely to use to contain current tensions in the Horn of Africa.
However, some experts warn Ankara's mediation efforts could be running out of time.
"We see tensions escalating in the region, and we see both sides sort of trying to extract leverage and put pressure on each other," said Omar Mahmood, a Senior Analyst of the International Crisis Group.
Mahmood says that given the Horn Of Africa is already plagued with conflict Ankara’s mediation efforts needs international support,
"There needs to be a way to de-escalate, I think the mediation is very important. But I think there probably needs to be additional, you know, parties involved or additional pressure put on both sides in order to get to a breakthrough,” added Mahmood.
Currently, there is no new date for a new round of Turkish-brokered Ethiopian Somali talks, with Ankara saying it is negotiating with each country separately. But time is not on Ankara's side as tensions continue to grow in the region, which is located on one of the world's most important trade routes.
