The fact that the Tory leadership contest remains completely open at the third ballot says everything about the state of it. A mass of Tory MPs may have concluded that they’ve had enough of Boris Johnson, but they are yet to work out what they want in his place. “It’s a pretty rubbish selection,” remarked one former minister before Monday’s vote.
No candidate is yet to achieve the 120 votes that secures a place in the final two voted on by the membership – though Rishi Sunak is close, on 115. As for whom he is likely to face in the final round, there is everything to play for.
That Tom Tugendhat won the fewest votes and is now out of the contest won’t come as much of a surprise to his parliamentary colleagues. Not only did he fare the worst in the second ballot, his debate performance divided opinion. While he topped the snap poll among the general public after the Channel 4 debate, his tactics of criticising government decisions and going the furthest in distancing himself from Boris Johnson riled MPs. “It’s easy to criticise when you’ve never been in government,” complained a senior Tory.
There is also a worry that Tugendhat was chucking the baby out with the bathwater, writing off everything the Tories have done in government in the last two and a half years. “Of course viewers are going to like it if your main thing is tearing chunks out of Boris,” added a colleague.
But while Tugendhat was the biggest loser from the ballot, it was a mixed bag for the three candidates fighting to join Sunak for a place in the final two. Penny Mordaunt may have retained second place, but any sense of building momentum was blunted by the fact that she actually went down a vote.
Her supporters argue this is actually a good result after all the blue-on-blue attacks she has received, but to others it’s clear that her campaign is sinking. “She couldn’t cut through in the debates and she is struggling with the scrutiny,” said a former minister. Her star is on the wane with the membership, too. She’s gone from being cited as the candidate to beat all others in a ConHome poll to now being predicted to lose to Sunak, were the two to reach a final runoff.
This is why there are some supporters of Sunak who would rather now face Mordaunt in the final two than either Liz Truss or Kemi Badenoch. Both fare better with the membership and are predicted to beat Sunak in a runoff. If the right of the party cannot unite around a candidate, Sunak’s supporters are likely to get their wish. And there are plenty of signs that they might now.
Truss succeeded in keeping her third place; she is now 11 votes behind Mordaunt. But her campaign team will not be in full celebration mode. First, her supporters hoped that Mordaunt’s lead would fall to single figures. Second, she won only seven new backers, whereas Badenoch won nine. This comes after Braverman – who was knocked out in the last round – implored her supporters to get behind Truss rather than split the vote on the right. Several of Braverman’s Brexiteer backers could not get over the fact that Truss voted remain; others concluded from the debates that Badenoch is the better communicator.
It means the fight for the right of the party is at a standstill. Badenoch won’t quit, as her supporters believe she is building momentum and is likely to win over waverers. As her chief cheerleader, Michael Gove, put it mischievously in an interview before the ballot: “There are some MPs who’ve backed certain candidates who have expressed to me a certain sense of buyer’s remorse.” Truss, though, won’t bow out because she is in the lead, and as foreign secretary is undoubtedly senior to Badenoch, a junior minister who could well struggle with the jump.
The race is now on among the campaign teams to win over Tugendhat’s supporters before the fourth ballot on Tuesday. Members of Mordaunt’s team have talked of winning many round to them – yet Tugendhat’s key backer, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, has been highly critical of the trade minister, suggesting she was more focused on her leadership ambitions than the day job.
The number of variables in play means that the contest is more volatile than ever – and the votes come thick and fast, with another on Tuesday afternoon. Any horse-trading will have to be done quickly – and quick decisions mean uncertain outcomes.
Katy Balls is the Spectator’s deputy political editor
