Good morning. There is little doubt that when Vladimir Putin ordered his invasion of Ukraine in 2022, he did not expect his troops to still be embroiled there in 2026. And he surely never envisaged a scaled-down victory parade in Moscow, stripped of military hardware, for fear of Ukrainian drone attacks on his own capital.
Putin has survived dangerous moments before, but with the Russian economy stuttering, his popularity is waning – not only with the public but also with the elites who have underpinned his regime for decades. An undoubted master of survival, the unwritten contract the president has with the Russian people is starting to fray.
