Good morning.
Even though summer has only just begun, record heatwaves are already being set. Last week Beijing logged its hottest June day since records began, at 41C. In Texas, a deadly heatwave is entering its third week – a number of records have already been broken across the state, including a blistering 115F (46.1C) reading in Del Rio and 116F (46.6C) in Cotulla. Canada had wildfires that burnt so furiously this month toxic smoke was felt across the United States. In India, morgues and hospitals became overwhelmed after temperatures hit 45C in some areas – at least 96 people reportedly died from heat-aggravated conditions. In the UK, a wildfire broke out in Scotland, burning an estimated 1,500 hectares of land and temperatures in some areas have already hit 32C.
The accelerated high temperatures in the past month or so have astounded scientists, who are pointing to a number of parallel events, including the human-caused climate crisis and the naturally occurring weather event El Niño, to explain the cause. Even though the temperature has (temporarily) dropped in England, it looks as though things are only going to get hotter, as the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has forecast that global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years. And those affected are often among the most marginalised groups in society – Human Rights Watch released a report that found that extreme heat disproportionally affects people with disabilities in Spain and other European countries.
Today’s newsletter explains why temperatures are increasing so quickly and what that could mean for the future. That’s right after the headlines.
Five big stories
Coronavirus | Ministers knew in 2016 that “even a moderate pandemic would overrun the system” and that the government’s emergency response function would be “very rapidly overwhelmed” by a major disease outbreak, the UK Covid-19 public inquiry has heard.
Housing | A freeze on housing benefit rates since April 2020 and surging rent prices have pushed the number of homes on the market that can be paid for through welfare down from 23% to 5%, according to the Institute of Fiscal Studies. Around 2 million households in England and Wales receive housing benefit.
Russia | Vladimir Putin has claimed in a TV address that Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s uprising was “doomed to fail” and said Russia showed “unity” in the face of a “treacherous” rebellion. Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy praised Ukrainian troops for advancing “in all sectors”, after visiting frontline soldiers in the east and south of the country.
UK news | Nicola Bulley died from drowning, with no evidence that she was harmed or had alcohol in her bloodstream. Such are the findings of a consultant pathologist, as told to an inquest into the death of the 45-year-old mortgage broker.
Conservatives | A woman has accused Conservative London mayoral candidate Daniel Korski of groping her in Downing Street a decade ago. Daisy Goodwin, a TV producer, alleged that Korski had put his hand on her breast during a meeting at Downing Street, while he was a special adviser to David Cameron. A spokesperson for Korski has said that he “categorically denies any allegation of inappropriate behaviour whatsoever”.
In depth: The damage caused by heatwaves – and what happens if they are not confronted
This particularly hot start to the summer season is not anomalous. Last year was the hottest on record for the UK, as temperatures went over 40C for the first time since records began. The Met Office has warned that we should now expect that kind of heat every three to four years. Without the enhanced greenhouse effect, a year that warm would be expected only once every 500 years.
Since 1884, all 10 of the warmest years recorded have happened after 2003. And with that has come a host of more extreme and more frequent weather events globally that have displaced millions of people, led to food shortages, loss of habitats, and deaths.
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El Niño
The rising temperatures that are a result of humans burning fossil fuels are being further exacerbated by the naturally occurring weather event known as El Niño – where sections of the Pacific Ocean heat up, causing temperatures to spike around the world. It is typically declared when ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean rise 0.5C above the long-term average. Its arrival is particularly worrying because even though there were three La Niña episodes (the colder counterpart to El Niño where temperatures drop) between 2020 and 2022, last year was still the fifth-warmest year on record globally.
Scientists are concerned that as El Niño takes effect, extreme weather events will be that much worse. In 2015 and 2016, El Niño affected the food security of more than 60 million people. The weather conditions triggered regional disease outbreaks globally, according to a Nasa study, and it was associated with extreme drought and a record smashing hurricane season. While El Niño is known to compound the effects of the climate crisis, the influential IPCC has said that there is no evidence that the climate crisis is changing the way El Niño works.
Either way, it is now expected that the average temperature will exceed 1.5C beyond pre-industrial times in the coming years, which is the threshold set out in the Paris agreement where extreme weather events, heatwaves, droughts, flooding and other climate impacts get significantly worse.
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The oceans
It is not just the land that we should be worrying about – the ocean is heating up at an alarming rate because of an unprecedented marine heatwave which is being aggravated by, you guessed it, the human-caused climate crisis. Scientists are concerned by not only the sea surface temperatures, which are the warmest in more than 170 years, at 5C above normal, but also by the fact that the rise has come far earlier than they anticipated. The warm waters, described as “beyond extreme”, endanger marine life and make the air warmer and wetter over land as well. Scientists have forecast that there is a 90% to 100% chance that the warm sea surface temperatures will continue through August, with a 70% to 80% chance that it will last through the end of the year.
Separately, warming oceans lead to sea level rise, more extreme weather and makes them less efficient in absorbing greenhouse emissions.
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The climate crisis
Last year, the Guardian’s Damian Carrington reported that at least a dozen of the most serious weather events, including extreme heatwaves, would have been impossible without human-caused global heating. Ninety-three percent of heatwaves were found to have been made more likely or more severe by human-caused climate change. And this is all happening, Carrington pointed out, with a rise of just 1C in the planet’s average temperature. In short: things are going to get a lot worse.
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We aren’t ready for it
The UK has understood itself to be a rainy country with mild, erring on cold, weather. These record high temperatures are certainly something to be worried about because, despite years of warnings from experts, the government has not done enough to adapt the UK to higher temperatures that last longer.
Buildings are not heat-proofed; our railways are some of the oldest in the world and tend to literally buckle in the heat; in London, seven Tube lines do not have any air-conditioning at all; and urban green space across England has declined over the past two decades. The lack of urgency in ensuring that precautionary measures are put in place has meant that in England there have reportedly been 2,000 excess deaths each year because of heatwaves. Last year alone, 2,800 more people aged 65 and over died in England during the heatwaves.
The government did announce new building regulations that are directly targeted at the issue of overheating – but they apply only to new homes, not the millions of houses that already exist and could be heat-proofed if they were properly insulated. Scientists have laid out, in excruciating detail, what happens next if nothing changes. They have also laid out how we can avoid that future – but that will require urgent action from governments around the world.
For more Guardian reporting on the environment and climate crisis, sign up here to receive Down to Earth every Thursday
What else we’ve been reading
Mollie Goodfellow spent years obsessed with true crime podcasts. But after listening to an ill-placed ad, she quickly realised that listening to these stories was a “buffer I could put between me and my experiences”, Goodfellow writes. “Letting go of true crime allowed me to let go of my own things – and finally find some peace.” Nimo
A sober Glastonbury might sound odd to many, but for Lindsey Fish it’s the new normal. Her diary explores the emotions that she experienced as she celebrated 365 days without alcohol at the festival, from enjoying Lizzo and Lewis Capaldi to celebrating her anniversary with fellow AA members. Nyima Jobe, First Edition intern
The fun had at Glastonbury is highly reliant on thousands of volunteers to keep the site running. Rachel Smith is one of those people, and she, alongside 700 others, were tasked with keeping the festival’s loos in working order. Read her festival diary here, where she writes entertainingly about her highs and lows over the past week. Nimo
Ever wondered if the water from your tap is affecting your skin or hair? Sali Hughes has written a thorough guide to the best solutions to deal with hard water, from a filtering shower head to the best shampoos to get your tresses silky smooth. Nyima
The latest entry in the Guardian’s The pet I’ll never forget series is Poppy Noor on brindle puppy Troy, a “murderously energetic”, pizza-stealing pooch who became a beloved companion (the second picture caption is also really, really funny). Hannah J Davies, deputy editor, newsletters
Sport
Cricket | English cricket suffers from “widespread and deep-rooted” racism, sexism, elitism and class-based discrimination at all levels of the game and urgently needs reform, a landmark report has found. The England and Wales Cricket Board responded to the report by issuing an unreserved apology for its failure to adequately tackle discrimination and said the findings were “a seminal moment” for the sport.
Football | Beloved former Scotland manager Craig Brown has died at 82. Brown, who led the country to Euro 96 and the 1998 World Cup, died after a brief illness. “A true Scotland legend,” read a tweet from the country’s official football team account.
Tennis | Defending women’s singles champion Elena Rybakina withdrew from Eastbourne hours before her first-round matchup as she recovers from a lingering virus. The 24-year-old faces a struggle to compete at Wimbledon next month, let alone retain her crown.
The front pages
Stephen Lawrence, Nicola Bulley and developments in Russia dominate today’s papers. The Guardian leads with Vladimir Putin’s TV speech, with the headline: “Enemies wanted Russia to ‘choke in bloody civil strife’, says Putin”. The Times says “Russia shall not choke in bloody strife, vows Putin”. The i says “Defiant Putin vows Wagner mutineers will be punished”.
The Telegraph looks to Yevgeny Prigozhin’s statement, with “I could have taken Ukraine in a day, says Wagner boss”. So too the FT, with “Prigozhin denies trying to oust Putin in his ‘masterclass’ march on Moscow”.
The Daily Mail has “Lawrence father’s fury at Met as sixth suspect unmasked”. The Mirror has “You’ll be Stephen Lawrence’d”, a reference to an alleged threat by the sixth suspect.
The Sun goes with the Nicola Bulley inquest, with “Nicola was gone in 60 seconds”. Metro says: “Nicola: it wasn’t murder”.
The Express has “Bank boss: don’t kill off the high street”, in a report about the closure of bank branches.
Today in Focus
What the Wagner mutiny means for Ukraine, Russia and Putin
When Russia’s mercenary group marched on Moscow, it seemed to take the world – and Vladimir Putin – by surprise . What does it mean for his grip on power – and for his war?
Cartoon of the day | Daniel Christie
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
With its high ceilings, bamboo floors and soothing spaces, Family Village in Portland, Oregon, is not the sort of place most people might recognise as a typical homeless shelter. But it’s part of what’s known as trauma-informed design, intended to create spaces that give extra support to unhoused people – particularly families, who might spend upwards of 75 days at a shelter.
“The goal of trauma-informed design is to help people quiet the part of the brain that stays in survival mode when in a traditional shelter setting,” writes Sarah Sloat in a long-form look at shelters that use design alongside more traditional methods to help vulnerable people. It’s part of Through the Roof, a Guardian series that reports from the frontlines of America’s housing crisis.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
