The Miami Dolphins’ 11 wins in 2023 matched the franchise’s single-season best after 1990. They finished the season with the league’s most prolific quarterback and wide receiver. They finished second in points scored, first in yards gained and fourth in expected points added (EPA) per play.
For the 23rd straight year, they failed to win a playoff game.
The last head coach to earn a postseason victory remains Dave Wannstedt, as Mike McDaniels once again took an injury-riddled team to the AFC bracket for a one-and-done departure. The Dolphins marched into a frigid Arrowhead Stadium and were barely competitive, falling to the Kansas City Chiefs 26-7
There were mitigating factors at play. The defense was without key starters Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips and Andrew Van Ginkle, leaving their pass rush mostly theoretical. The offensive line was missing 40 percent of its starting lineup from opening day. Vital wide receiver Jaylen Waddle returned for his first action since Christmas Eve and clearly wasn’t himself on the field, managing two catches for 31 yards.
But this wasn’t simply a case of bad luck. It was a case of a team that crumbled time and time again in big moments.
Miami finished its 11-7 run with exactly one win against a team with a record better than .500. That came in Week 16, a 22-20 home victory over a flawed Dallas Cowboys team that went 4-5 on the road this season. The Dolphins followed that up with a Week 17 trip to Maryland; the Baltimore Ravens routed them 56-19.
This was a team that composed a symphony of failure whenever a big win was needed. Miami gave up nearly 900 total yards and 69 points in two losses to the Buffalo Bills — losses that defined the AFC East title race and sent the Dolphins from the 65-degree climate of south Florida to the frozen hellscape of western Missouri to open the postseason. They gained 726 total yards while blowing the doors off a hapless Denver Broncos team in Week 3. Then, when a date with the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles came a month later they barely hit one-third of that total (244 yards in a 31-17 loss).
There’s enough blame to go around, but there’s a lightning rod at the top of the depth chart. Tua Tagovailoa has put up big numbers with Tyreek Hill shining as his WR1. But his two game-winning drives came against the aforementioned flawed Cowboys (in a fourth quarter where Miami first blew a 19-10 lead) and the Los Angeles Chargers, a team that’s perpetually been a spilled bag of marbles in football form.
CHIEFS BALL!!! pic.twitter.com/OkuqWeCluW
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 14, 2024
Here’s what Tagovailoa did against teams with losing records:
- 10-1 record, 293 yards per game, 71.7 percent completion rate, two TDs per game, 0.7 INT per game, 110.7 passer rating
And here he was in 2023 vs. teams with winning records.
- 1-6 record, 228 yards per game, 62.8 percent completion rate, 1.1 TDs per game, 1 INT per game, 80.8 passer rating
Yes, the competition was significantly better in that second span, but Tagovailoa wasn’t a Dolphin under the spotlight. He was a moray, slinking into the coral in hopes no one would notice.
This is a major problem, even under a head coach and receiving corps capable of painting over his flaws against lesser opponents. But there’s no easy fix.
Tagovailoa is entering the final year of his rookie contract. Miami will have to make a decision about his future, either extending him or rolling the dice before potentially franchise tagging him in 2025. They’re going to be too good to draft anyone who’d have even a 15 percent chance of being as talented as Tagovailoa. They’re a projected $40 million over next season’s salary cap and have an estimated bottom 10 cap position for 2025. Even if a veteran quarterback hits the open market, it’s going to be a tight squeeze.
Would Kirk Cousins, another quarterback with an imperfect postseason resume, be an upgrade? What if Jared Goff or Geno Smith are available? Could I interest you, perhaps, in Baker Mayfield?
The answer remains that rehabbing Tagovailoa is the team’s best option. While that didn’t work out in 2023, there’s still room for improvement; all three of the quarterbacks listed above shined in their second acts. Quarterbacks can find a new gear late in their arcs.
Thus, Mike McDaniel’s job in 2024 is both simple and extremely difficult. He needs Tagovailoa to look like the guy who wrapped the Broncos up into a neat little package and shipped them to Abu Dhabi. And he needs him to look like that against the Bills or Chiefs.
There’s no easy way to get this done. But if the Dolphins want their first playoff win since the second season of The Sopranos, it’s what needs to happen.
