TSMC Is Set Up for a Big October 15. After Record Monthly Sales, 2nm and Margins Will Drive Future Price Action.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) reports third-quarter earnings on October 15, with its stock trading near its 52-week high. During its last earnings call, management guided for third-quarter revenue of $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion, about 37% higher than a year earlier at the midpoint. Its revenue is more predictable than most companies, though. TSMC reports sales every month, and July and August already add up to about two-thirds of the quarter’s guided total. Its August revenue increased 53% from a year earlier, setting a monthly record. Even if September sales fall about 10% from August's record, the company would still land in the middle of its guided range. That’s based on TSMC’s own exchange-rate assumption.

In July, TSMC also raised its full-year growth outlook to slightly above 40% and lifted capital spending plans to between $60 billion and $64 billion.