The push to stealthily cut benefits by dropping the pledge for them to rise in line with inflation might once have been catnip to Conservative MPs and party members.
But the Tories have changed fundamentally since the days of George Osborne’s “strivers versus skivers” comments and the pernicious influence that rhetoric had on the national debate, leading to programmes such as Benefits Street.
Now multiple cabinet ministers have told the Guardian privately they are determined to halt the prospect of linking benefits to wage growth rather than inflation, a significant real terms cut for the incomes of the poorest in society.
Boris Johnson had promised the uplift would be linked to inflation next year. This year, benefits were pegged against the previous September’s inflation, which was just 3.1%. Inflation is clearly now significantly higher – meaning the poorest have already seen a major hit to their finances.
MPs are being even more outspoken, the House of Commons leader, Penny Mordaunt, went public with her opposition, which is said to be shared by the work and pensions secretary, Chloe Smith. Mordaunt is a former minister in the Department for Work and Pensions and other veterans of that department – Damian Green and Esther McVey – have also been categorically opposed.
The shift began in 2016 with Iain Duncan Smith’s resignation over cuts to disability benefit, calling it a compromise too far, though there were also heightened tensions over the forthcoming EU referendum.
But it was Theresa May’s conference speech in 2018 which officially declared “austerity is over” and that there were better days ahead for the UK economy. Under Boris Johnson, spending cuts were a “dirty word”.
In 2019, there was the most fundamental shift which has changed the mindset of most Conservative MPs – earnings in new Tory seats are 5% lower than in Labour constituencies.
The new MPs from across the north of England have many more constituents on benefits than the average Tory MP had before – and feel keenly the squeeze that many are suffering. They also know that their seats depend on delivering on the promise that they will be better off under the Conservatives.
And the truth is that benefit claimants have become a far more difficult target for even the most hardened rightwinger.
The most expensive benefits are for children and adults with disabilities, not easy targets when arguing for savings. There are record vacancies across the country and low unemployment, ministers cannot claim those on benefits are not going out to work because 40% of people on universal credit are in work.
For those who aren’t, they are often performing tasks that the state would otherwise have to pay for, like caring, or they are unable to work because of disabilities.
There are new incentives to push those working less than 15 hours a week into taking on more hours, but it is rarely the case that those working part-time are able to take on more work. Often they have childcare or other caring responsibilities which they cannot afford to pay for.
And there is a hard case to make, as some in No 10 have tried, that those on benefits should not get a higher rise than those who are not – wage growth is significantly below inflation. But those on the lowest incomes are hit far harder by inflation – a fact many cabinet ministers well understand.
The reason is that the poorest households spend more of their total budget on food or gas and electricity, and are estimated to feel inflation in real terms at least three points higher than the richest.
Liz Truss determinedly did not rule out changes to benefits on Tuesday morning, despite gathering opposition. But one cabinet minister predicted that the issue within the party would soon become as obvious as the 45p rebellion – and that the opposition was likely to be just as immoveable.
