Republican leaders in Georgia are reportedly preparing for more than a possible Senate defeat. Some fear President Donald Trump's handpicked candidate, Rep. Mike Collins, could lose badly enough to damage GOP candidates across the state.
Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff has established a clear advantage over Collins less than two months before the November 3 midterm elections, according to recent polls. The change has transformed a race Republicans once considered one of their best opportunities to capture a Democratic-held Senate seat.
"There's a general concern that Collins isn't the right candidate or running the right campaign to defeat Ossoff," Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of the nonpartisan Inside Elections, told The Wall Street Journal.
The Journal reported that Collins' campaign has been hurt by poor fundraising, an ethics investigation and controversies involving people connected to his family and political operation. Jordan Fuchs, a longtime Republican strategist, said Collins is "really having difficulty breaking through."
The Daily Beast went further, reporting that some Georgia Republican leaders already view the Senate race as lost and are increasingly focused on the potential consequences for the rest of the ticket.
No votes have been cast and the Republican Party has not conceded the contest. The claims represent the assessments of political operatives and unnamed Georgia Republicans, not an official conclusion about the outcome.
Still, the latest public polling explains the concern.
An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted August 16 and 17 found Ossoff leading Collins 50% to 43%, with 7% undecided. The survey questioned 800 likely voters and had a margin of error of 3.46 percentage points. It was sponsored by James Magazine Online, a conservative-leaning Georgia political publication.
"Georgia simply is not a double-digit type of state for either party these days," InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery told Fox 5 Atlanta.
Towery said Collins was struggling particularly among women and younger voters. Other surveys have given Ossoff an even larger advantage, including a Fox News poll that showed the Democratic incumbent ahead by 13 percentage points.
Collins' campaign rejects the suggestion that the race is slipping away. Spokesperson Meyer Siegfried told the Journal that recent surveys showing smaller margins prove the Republican is gaining ground.
"There are repeated public polls that show the race moving in Mike's direction," Siegfried said, accusing critics of ignoring the campaign's progress.
Georgia remains one of the country's most closely divided states. Joe Biden carried it by fewer than 12,000 votes in 2020, while Trump returned it to the Republican column in 2024. Ossoff won his Senate seat in a January 2021 runoff, when his victory alongside Sen. Raphael Warnock gave Democrats control of the chamber.
Republicans initially identified Ossoff as one of the most vulnerable Democratic senators facing reelection in 2026. Their preferred opportunity changed when popular Republican Gov. Brian Kemp declined to enter the race.
Collins later defeated former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley in the Republican primary runoff. Kemp supported Dooley, but Trump endorsed Collins two days before the vote, calling him a "WARRIOR and WINNER."
The endorsement helped Collins secure the nomination but may have left Republicans with a candidate capable of winning a MAGA-dominated primary while struggling among the suburban and independent voters needed for a statewide victory.
The Cook Political Report moved the Georgia contest from Toss-Up to Lean Democrat even before several controversies involving Collins emerged. The election forecaster cited his combative social media persona, hard-line abortion position and pending ethics investigation as potential problems, particularly in suburban Atlanta.
Collins is under investigation over allegations that his congressional office paid an intern who was romantically involved with his former chief of staff but performed little or no work.
The independent Office of Congressional Conduct found "substantial reason to believe" congressional resources may have been misused and recommended further review. The findings are detailed in the watchdog's 37-page report.
Collins' office called the complaint "a sad attempt to derail" an effective conservative legislator.
"Rep. Collins looks forward to providing the House Ethics Committee all factual information and putting these meritless allegations to rest," his office told Reuters.
An investigation does not establish that Collins violated House rules.
The congressman has also faced questions about racist and white nationalist material associated with his son-in-law and a former intern. Collins condemned the content and distanced himself from the people responsible.
Money represents an equally serious obstacle. According to figures cited by the Journal, Ossoff raised $77.3 million between the beginning of 2025 and early September, compared with $7.4 million for Collins. That enormous advantage gives the Democrat more resources for television advertising, organizing and voter turnout.
Republican worries extend beyond the Senate race. The same InsiderAdvantage poll showing Ossoff ahead found Republican gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson tied at 46% with Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms.
One Georgia political figure told the Journal that six percentage points could be the danger line. If Collins loses by more than that, the source warned, Republicans could struggle in races for governor, attorney general, insurance commissioner and other statewide positions.
The stakes also extend beyond Georgia. Democrats need to gain four Republican-held seats to win control of the Senate, and Reuters identifies Georgia as one of nine competitive races likely to determine which party controls the chamber.
