The summit between Chinese president, Xi Jinping, and US president, Donald Trump, reportedly covered a lot of ground. The two leaders are said to have discussed trade, technology and the war in Iran, agreeing that Strait of Hormuz should be kept open. But the most potentially hazardous issue they covered was the future of Taiwan, which Xi said if handled poorly, could lead to conflict and “an extremely dangerous situation”.
The danger is not simply that Xi and Trump disagree over Taiwan’s future. It is that actions one leader may see as defensive could easily be interpreted by the other as evidence of hostile intent. It’s a security dilemma that is well known in international diplomacy.
For Washington, arms sales to Taiwan, including a recent multibillion-dollar package, are intended to strengthen deterrence and reduce the likelihood of conflict by making coercion more costly for Beijing. But even ostensibly defensive arms sold to Taiwan appear immensely threatening to the Chinese government, given Beijing’s determination to restore Taiwan to Chinese sovereignty.
