WASHINGTON — While President Donald Trump fumed on Twitter over an election that was increasingly slipping away from him, his running mate, Mike Pence, fell conspicuously silent.
He had stood next to Trump on election night at the White House, offering a comparatively placid speech on the need for every legal vote to be counted. But his social media presence went dark for days, until questions arose in the press over his absence at an event on Thursday where Trump doubled down on his baseless claims of widespread voter fraud.
Aides to Pence say his duty as vice president is to keep his advice to Trump private. He has spent the past several days calling party leaders and donors, gauging their support for the president's position and working to raise money for a legal fight over the election they hope, against tall odds, might change the outcome in their favor.
But Pence is grappling with a similar dilemma that other ambitious Republicans who have been staunch allies of the president now face. The man who has served as their party's boss for four years may now become an obstacle to their electoral success — or worse, their competition.
The first litmus test of the 2024 Republican primary has been laid bare even before the 2020 outcome has been formally resolved. How loyal should GOP presidential hopefuls — who have stood as Trump's most vocal advocates on Capitol Hill or have served in his Cabinet — remain to Trump, whose own political story remains unfinished?
"I think everybody's kind of walking a tightrope on this thing because a lot of them, frankly, want him out of the way. There are some very ambitious people in the Republican Party who never really supported Trump," said Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group, a Republican polling firm that proved to be more accurate in predicting close outcomes in the upper Midwest compared to others. "They're crying crocodile tears right now. They've got as much genuine emotion for Trump as a North Korean funeral. They're ready to get moving."
When Donald Trump Jr. took to Twitter on Thursday to complain that his father wasn't receiving sufficient reinforcement from likely 2024 Republican presidential hopefuls, the power of his ire was immediately apparent.
Just 17 minutes later, Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton responded on the platform with the link to donate to the president's legal defense fund. "There is no excuse not to allow poll watchers to observe counting," he said.
Within the hour came former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley, who called for "transparency and fairness as the votes are counted." Just two minutes after Haley, it was Florida Sen. Rick Scott, who boasted that he introduced legislation that would create national standards for ballot counting. Scott would later also tweet a link to Trump's legal fund.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, a Trump 2016 primary rival, secured a spot on Sean Hannity's Fox News program Thursday night to illustrate his complete fealty to the president's complaints, describing the process to be "lawless." "They are setting the stage to potentially steal an election," he charged, noting that he had talked with the president earlier in the day.
But it was Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley who were deemed to be adequately waging battle in the trenches, according to the president's son.
The tweets are the easiest gestures they can make. If Trump continues to falsely hurl claims of rampant fraud as states move to certify their results in the coming days and weeks, Republican loyalty will be tested even further.
Ari Fleischer, a former White House press secretary to President George W. Bush, said the ultimate margins in many of the outstanding states should dictate the GOP's reaction, but emphasized it would be political kryptonite to cross the president too soon.
"Look, if Pennsylvania goes 100,000 or more for Biden, it leads you to one conclusion. If Pennsylvania is really close, it leads you to another conclusion," he said, advising potential 2024 hopefuls to "support the legal effort."
Wait to see if the facts are there to buttress the legal effort," he added. "Don't criticize the president. And wait and see."
One Trump ally widely seen as a 2024 hopeful has remained silent, however, in part due to his unique diplomatic role.
Aides to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who has endured multiple investigations for commingling official duties with his political activities, said that he has refrained from speaking out to avoid violating the Hatch Act, a law that prohibits government officials from engaging in electoral politics.
Only a few elected officials, including Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, have openly criticized the president's rhetoric. Hogan, who considered but ultimately passed on a 2020 primary challenge to Trump, said there was "no defense" of the president's comments "undermining our democratic process."
Hanging over the entire calculation of Republicans-in-waiting is not only that Trump isn't expected to vacate the public conservation in defeat, but also that he will likely leave the door open to running again.
In many cases, the loser of a presidential election is quickly discarded by their party, blamed for their inability to persuade new voters to join their party's coalition. But Trump will stand as a unique figure, even in defeat.
For one, he may not even acknowledge a loss, choosing to frame it as a mere setback engineered by his enemies in established institutions.
There's no modern example of a defeated president choosing to run again four years following a reelection defeat — Grover Cleveland is the only president to serve non-consecutive terms — but Trump built his reputation as a precedent-shattering figure.
"Trump has a much tighter grip on the modern Republican Party than Hillary Clinton did on the Democrats or certainly Mitt Romney did on the Republicans," said Fleischer. "If Trump leaves the door open — which he likely will, because it keeps the attention on him — he will be formidable."
