The U.S. economy is already feeling the effects of Trump's tariffs, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) projects that things could get worse.
The OECD's biannual interim economic outlook, published on Tuesday, forecasts U.S. growth will fall by a full percentage point from its 2024 rate. While this might not sound like much, this will translate to Americans missing out on trillions of dollars of goods and services by 2035 if this decrease in growth persists.
From 2010 to 2019, American gross domestic product (GDP) grew by an average of 2.4 percent per year. In 2024, it grew by 2.8 percent. Now, the OECD projects that the economy will grow by only 1.8 percent in 2025 and 1.5 percent in 2026, "owing to higher tariff rates [and] moderating net immigration," among other factors. Assuming that yearly GDP growth neither rebounds nor falls further but persists at 1.8 percent, the U.S. economy will be $2.2 trillion smaller in 2035 than it would be had President Donald Trump not adopted his protectionist policies and growth remained at 2.4 percent.
