New survey data show that President Donald Trump's quickly evolving and unpredictable tariff policies are causing small businesses to be less optimistic about the economy. The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) recently released its April survey of over 1,000 small business owners in the United States. The report found that business optimism declined by 1.6 points to 95.8, marking "the second consecutive month" the metric fell "below the 51-year average of 98."
Components of the NFIB index are hitting levels not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic. Seasonally adjusted job openings fell below 34 percent (lowest since January 2021). Meanwhile, only 18 percent of firms said they were planning capital outlays in the next six months—the first decline since September 2024 and the lowest since April 2020. The number of small business owners expecting an increase in real sales volume fell by four points, making it "the fourth consecutive month real sales expectations declined after surging from recession levels after the election."
Only 15 percent of owners expect better business conditions, a six-point decline since March, and the lowest since October 2024.
