African leaders have been quick to congratulate Donald Trump on his re-election, expressing optimism for stronger partnerships with the United States. Yet, analysts suggest that Trump’s next four years are unlikely to bring significant change to the US-Africa relationship, with many expecting the return of a “transactional” approach to diplomacy.
Following the election results, leaders across the continent extended their well-wishes to the returning US president.
“I look forward to building on our mutual interests,” said Kenya’s President William Ruto, while Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu voiced hopes for a “reciprocal” era of cooperation over the next four years.
However many observers believe that Africa – previously labeled by Trump as a continent of “shithole countries” – remains a low priority for the United States.
Historically, US foreign policy has largely neglected Africa, focusing instead on countering adversaries like China and Russia.
In contrast, President Joe Biden promoted Africa as a vital partner, though little was executed during his mandate.
According to the International Crisis Group's Murithi Mutiga in Nairobi,Trump is “a committed isolationist and clearly wants to pull back” from global commitments.
Mutiga told AFP that Africa has often been viewed by the US “as a problem to be solved”, in contrast to China’s more investment-focused engagement on the continent.
J Peter Pham, a former US special envoy to the Sahel, said the future Trump administration "may seek 'win-win' scenarios in Africa, possibly continuing the African Growth and Opportunity Act", which provides eligible nations duty-free access to US markets.
However, compliance issues have come to the fore of late – particularly with South Africa – accused of supplying arms to Russia amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Reproductive health 'conflict'
There are concerns that Trump’s presidency could impact critical funding for healthcare and development across Africa.
This includes potential cuts to reproductive health programs, which many African communities rely on, particularly for services aimed at young women and girls.
Max Primorac, a former USAID administrator, has openly criticised some USAID programs, aligning with conservative values outlined in Trump’s “Project 2025” agenda.
Primorac took issue with initiatives he claimed promote “abortion, climate extremism, and interventions against perceived systematic racism”, suggesting these could be targets for funding cuts.
However, it is more likely that the next US administration will focus on core security and economic interests rather than controversial social policies.
'Problems versus opportunites'
Trump’s re-election also comes at a time of escalating instability in Africa’s Sahel region, where a growing anti-Western sentiment has driven countries like Niger and Mali to seek partnerships with Russia.
As China and Russia expand their influence through investments targeting Africa’s mineral wealth, the US’s position has weakened.
“The US and the West viewed Africa as a problem, while China saw it as an opportunity,” Mutiga said, highlighting the different approaches taken by global powers.
While the Biden administration pledged over $22 billion in investment to Africa, Trump previously sought to significantly slash foreign aid – sometimes by as much as 30 percent.
Potential funding cuts during Trump's second presidency could also jeopardise vital health, security, and development projects amid rising hunger and threats to democracy in African nations.
Africa's interests
In Morocco, Trump’s return has stirred optimism about Washington’s stance on Western Sahara. During his first term, Trump recognised Morocco’s sovereignty over the disputed region – a move that has not been reversed by Biden.
While this shift has yet to yield concrete results, Morocco hopes Trump’s second term could bring further support.
Security remains a key interest for the US in the Horn of Africa, where ongoing conflicts, such as the civil war in Sudan, have disrupted stability.
Analysts predict the Trump administration may reduce funding to Somalia, potentially redirecting resources to Somaliland as part of its strategic interests in the region.
While the G20 has recognised the African Union as a permanent member, concerns persist about the organisation's effectiveness in representing the continent’s interests on the global stage.
“The question is often, what will Washington do? But really, what is in Africa’s interest?” Mutiga said.
As Trump readies to take over the White House, there is a growing emphasis for Africa to articulate its priorities clearly – focusing on its own interests – rather than serving as a pawn in geopolitical rivalries that will dictate US involvement.
